Poll: Trump is bleeding support from group he thought he had sewn up

[Wicked Blue]

By Matt Arco | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Updated: Aug. 15, 2024, 8:17 a.m.|Published: Aug. 15, 2024, 6:33 a.m.

Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket may have “reset the Latino vote” this election against Donald Trump, according to a new poll.

The Equis Research survey shows Harris 19 percentage points ahead among Latino voters in the seven swing states expected to determine the 2024 election, compared to Biden’s five percentage point advantage.

Harris led Trump 56% to 37% among registered Hispanic voters in the seven most competitive states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

As the nation’s largest minority group — 19.5% of the total population, according to the 2020 census — Latinos form a key voting bloc in what’s shaping up to be a tight presidential election. Harris, the daughter of immigrants, has won the backing of influential Latino groups, and some feel her success hinges on energizing young Latino voters.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/08/poll-trump-is-bleeding-support-from-group-he-thought-he-had-sewn-up.html

[RandySF]

1. Trump miscalculated

He thought his earlier polling numbers was about him when it was about ambivalence toward the top of the Democratic ticket.

[sheshe2]

2. Go go go go!!!

Harris-Walz 🇺🇸

[lindysalsagal]

3. But the 37% are oK with mass deportation of latinos? WHY?????

[rpannier]

6. Answers vary

1. In 2020, the Guardian ran an interview with a Pentecostal Minister in Arizona who said 1/3 of his congregation was definitely voting for Trump. He said they view themselves as Christians first, and Hispanics after.
So that's one group he's getting

2. Cuban Americans mostly vote Republican. They're not getting deported, and they know it.

3. Those that believe they've achieved Whiteness. Not being sarcastic. A lot of ethnic minority groups, when they make it, pull up the ladder because they've made it.

4. Tejicanos. These are the Hispanics that live on the border and have since before the Spanish-American War. More and more of them are voting Republican.

5. People who feel they, or their relatives, came here the "right way". They view themselves as insulated.

6. The usual groups: The anti-tax types. Many are small business owners. The anti-abortion Pentecostals, Catholics, and others that think abortion is wrong. (I find it interesting that in Latin/South America, even among the most ardent leftists, there are a huge number of people that are opposed to abortion)

7. And... of course... people with a lot of money.

[Biophilic]

8. Interesting information. Thanks.

My second thought after reading that list is that they need to pay more attention to German history of the 30s and 40s. When the fascists decide to hate and get rid of a group they don't really care about the individual members of the group. They just want them all cleansed and gone. The particulars aren't important.

[Grins]

11. Nice. Two quick comments.

1.
"...they view themselves as Christians first"

To which one can be met with a, "Really?????" They should be forced to explain that.

2.
"The anti-abortion Pentecostals, Catholics, and others that think abortion is wrong."

Eleven months ago the Mexican Supreme Court decriminalized abortion.

Go figure....

[onetexan]

17. American Catholicism is a rogue variant of Roman Catholicism. The recent popes have struggled to keep american bishops

in line. Many are white nationalists.
Spanish speaking catholics fall in line w the church here. Yea talking about voting against your own interests.

[Wednesdays]

25. And, #4, Cuban-Americans

In Florida, sure! Lots of Cuban-Americans. But in all those battleground states mentioned above? Not so many.

[yardwork]

32. "They should be forced to explain that." What do you mean?

[yardwork]

12. That's a good analysis.

I have Hispanic in-laws who fit into several of these categories. Some of their ancestors have been in what is now the southwest US since precolumbian days. They view themselves as white, conservative Republicans. They have no allegiance with or even sympathy for current immigrants.

It's a mistake to assume that Latinos automatically vote Democratic.

[LAS14]

26. If they view themselves as white, why would they be...

... included in the Latino category? I've always wondered how Spaniards and Portuguese feel about this classification of Latin people as "non-white." Latino wasn't a racial thing when I was growing up, just a political thing referencing one's country of origin. (South America, not Spain and Portugal.)

[yardwork]

29. Latino/Hispanic is an ethnicity, separate from race.

If you look at the census and other demographic forms, you'll see that the first question is Hispanic/Latino or non-Hispanic/Latino. Then, you're asked if you are Black, white, indigenous, etc.

I'm non-Hispanic/Latino and white. People who choose Hispanic/Latino still have to choose whether they're white, Black, indigenous, etc.

[LAS14]

30. OK. So presumably your in-laws classify themselves as non-hispanic/Latino. It's a choice thing. nt

[yardwork]

31. I think you misunderstood my post.

I assume my in laws identify as Hispanic/Latino and white. Both choices are necessary on demographic forms.

[LAS14]

36. I bet they don't identify as hispanic/Latino

[yardwork]

39. Why wouldn't they?

Every Latino in the U.S. has to choose whether they are white, Black, indigenous, or other. Probably the vast majority choose Hispanic/Latino and white.

In other words, most Latinos identify as white. But they're still Latino.

[LAS14]

40. If they're closer to my age than yours, white is white. nt

[David__77]

14. Many Latinos are white.

I don’t know that people broadly understand the racial dynamic in Mexico or some other Latin American countries.

[rpannier]

15. My apologies for not being clearer. I was refering to the 'Concept of Whiteness'

At one time in the United States, Irish, Italians, and eastern Europeans were not considered 'white'

I was going to include the above part in my description, but opted not to do so.
It was a mistake -- my apologies

[yardwork]

33. I thought your post was very clear.

I also agree that many people don't understand what is meant by Hispanic-Latino.

[David__77]

38. I think you were clear.

What you were referring to is another aspect, the idea of “white” embracing more groups.

[lindysalsagal]

16. Of course, you're right: Selfishness. But he still hates them and their people!

How do you vote for a fiend who labels and disgraces and hates your own people? I guess they don't think other spanish speaking people are their people? They think tscf can tell the difference between them and the newcomers?

[LAS14]

23. Thanks for this!! nt

[Lemon Lyman]

10. Yup

I have an r cousin in TX. Scientist.. He's a bright guy, but his politics suck. We talked with him a couple of summers ago when he was home. He lives around many Latinos. He said that it's very common with Latinos to dislike other Latinos - especially those coming to America. I guess basically they feel like, "I'm already here. I'm a real American. You're not one of me. Stay out of my country."

This was on Jimmy Kimmel in 2018:

[yardwork]

13. Latinos come from many different countries and cultures.

Assuming that people whose families immigrated from Puerto Rico, Cuba, Venezuela, and Mexico all identify with one another is just wrong. These groups have no more in common than 20th century immigrants from Italy, England, and Russia.

[DallasNE]

18. "Why" Can Be Said

About white evangelicals and white males without college though racism is a clear player with these groups. But voting against your own self-interests has become a hallmark of American elections.

[BannonsLiver]

22. A couple of reasons.

A lot of them come from strongman govt situations and are comfortable with that. Not Central America but we have a poster who thinks Castro is a saint and refuses to acknowledge any human rights abuses under his regime.

Also, just like with some white people there is an element of “I’ve got mine so fuck all the rest”.

[Kali]

28. anybody can be subject to repuke greed

the mantra is "I got mine, fuck the rest of you"

[DownriverDem]

4. Please folks

The polls to pay attention to are after Labor Day.

[birdographer]

5. If at all

No matter how she pulls ahead, the polls then declare "it's shaping up to be a tight race." She could be 70 points ahead of him in every state and they would say it's shaping up to be a tight race.

[Butterflylady]

7. You got it right....

The media needs to keep it a horse race. Can't make money if they tell the truth. So, go ahead and make a horse race. We, democrats are smarter than the media, we know a loser when we see one.

[Wednesdays]

27. There will be only one poll that matters in 2024

If we get out the vote, we win. If we don't get out the vote, we lose. It's as simple as that.

[Wicked Blue]

43. I understand what you're saying, DownriverDem

It is premature.
I'm posting these particular good news polls for encouragement and optimism.

[Grins]

9. About time...

Of all groups, you'd think the Latino vote would be solidly against Trump and the GOP Reich-wing.

[Dan]

19. My only thought is this

When they start deporting, they're going by how you look vs what is your legal residency/where were you born. A lot of them will be accidentally deported, just saying.

[FoxNewsSucks]

20. That's why the right bought up radio stations and turned them

to Spanish-speaking versions of Fox "news".

Drug-addled gasbag Limpbough (who's thankfully still dead) Hannity, O'Reilly etc all showed the power of am hate radio. So they're doing the same with Hispanics.

[SoFlaBro]

24. Orange Bastard need to reset the bed that he has shit. Piss on that Orange Turd.

[helpisontheway]

34. Yet Florida is not one of those states. smh nt

[JCMach1]

35. Mass Deportation NOW signs are NOT so inviting

Who Knew?

Even if you are a citizen, immigrant groups all have relatives, friends, etc. caught in the immigration grist mill/circumlocution office.

Mass Deportation NOW? Sure, bub

Most importantly it's a point that unites immigrants across ethnicities and experiences. ++ For Dems ... Lose/Lose for the R's

[WarGamer]

37. Articles goes on to state Trump running ahead of his 2020 numbers with Hispanics...

Don't get overconfident or complacent.

GOTV.

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-less-latino-support-joe-biden-swing-states-new-poll-1939364

[Escurumbele]

41. If its true and Biden agreed to new elections in Venezuela, say goodbye to the Latino support.

I would love to ask Biden if he would have agreed to a new election if trump had asked him after he lost the 2020 election...

I bet the answer would have be a big NO!

Maria Corina Machado asked the right question on Lula's suggestion, and now agreement by Biden, which was "what if he loses the 2nd election, do we go to a third election?" The insanity of that suggestion is of catastrophic proportions, the damage that it will not only cause the Venezuelan people, who have already decided they don't want a criminal regime that is also a danger to the USA, but a slap on the face of all Venezuelan citizens.

Machado had a plan that took, if I understand correctly, a couple of years to prepare where she made sure to have people watching on the voting tables to assure no cheating would happen, they also developed a website to show the outcome, which were taken directly from the data provided by the voting system to make sure she could confirm the results. now Maduro knows what she did and it will be very easy for him to block any attempts for Machado to show the real results so they can change the data in their favour. IT IS INSANE!

Latinos will turn away from Harris if she agrees to this insane proposal.

[Zoomie1986]

42. Largest ethnic voting group

Others groups are bigger, and some of them are outright ignored and even kicked aside.

Like religious 'nones.' We're 30% of the population and what do we get in exchange? Ignored when not treated like we're some kind of traitors.