How many Republicans would vote for Obama if Newt Ginrich got the nomination?

[bluestateguy]

In 2008, Obama won 9% of Republican voters. Actually, that is quite respectable. Say Newt is the candidate. Does that number go up or down? I would say Obama gets 15% of Republican voters in that scenario.

The 2008 exit poll, BTW: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

[rocktivity]

1. Between Republican women, gays, religious moderates, young people, and minorities

Last edited Sat Jan 21, 2012, 12:42 PM - Edit history (4)

who will have to either vote for Gingrich or stay home, I can definitely see that number going higher -- unless Paul decides to run as an independent.


rocktivity

[gateley]

2. I would have said 'zero' but I didn't realize that about 2008. They must have been THINKING

Republicans, so if they're still thinking, hopefully they'll do the same this time around.

[Fearless]

3. I'm sure they'd just stay home.

[liberal N proud]

4. Republicans fall in line better than any military

They will vote for who ever the candidate is, because that is what they do, election after election.

The only variables in elections are, Democrats and Independents who many really are Democrats but refuse to claim it.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

5. About 5%

Although more of them will vote for Obama in real terms because so many Republicans will be identifying as Independents this year, after being so thoroughly shamed by their party and its conduct.

[zbdent]

6. If Republicans held true to what they say and "believe" ... none of them.

However, the Christian ones wouldn't vote for TiffaNewt, either ... so Obama probably would still win ...

But then, I'm asking for the impossible ... Republicans actually holding to the standards they claim to be for ...

[jwirr]

7. Probably not all that many. Instead they would stay home. Which is just as good - its a vote for us.

[jmowreader]

8. Five to seven percent

The Party has a bigger worry if Gingrich gets the nomination: how many Republicans will not cast a vote for anyone if Gingrich gets the nomination?

I use the term "negative coattails" to describe this: it's what happens when a party runs such a loser he takes downticket candidates to defeat with him. Gingrich has the potential to hand the Democrats back the House and enough of the Senate that the GOP's "filibuster everything" strategy will no longer work.

Which is why, if Romney isn't their standardbearer, they'll figure out some way to have it be either Rick Santorum plus a business executive to be named later or a preacher plus a businessman if they have to work it out in a brokered convention. I don't know...Rick Warren and Sam Palmisano, retired CEO of IBM?