Common myths about the new FBI crime statistics, debunked

[Nevilledog]

https://popular.info/p/common-myths-about-the-new-fbi-crime

This week, the FBI released its report on crime in the United States during 2023. The report aggregates data from over 16,000 law enforcement agencies that collectively cover over 94% of U.S. residents. It found a large decline in murders compared to 2022 (-11.3%), and moderate but still significant declines in violent crime overall (-3.0%) and property crime (-2.4%).

Former President Donald Trump and his Republican allies, however, insist that America is in the midst of an unprecedented "crime wave." They argue that the FBI data collected through the Uniform Crime Reporting Program is incomplete or fraudulent. In a September 12 post on X, Trump cited the Department of Justice's National Crime Victimization Survey to claim that there has been a 40% increase in violent crime since he left office. "Kamala Crime is destroying America, and gangs are taking over!” Trump insisted.

To sort through the confusion, Popular Information spoke with Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, creator of the Real-Time Crime Index, and one of the nation's leading experts in crime statistics.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Popular Information: Can you explain what, in your view, are the most important takeaways from the recent FBI report on crime in the United States during 2023?

Jeff Asher: The murder trend—the decline—is the largest we've ever seen, based on the data we have, which goes back to 1960. While it’s not the full history of the nation, it’s the largest percentage change recorded over that period, in terms of fewer victims from one year to the next. That’s significant because murder is the most serious offense, with the highest societal cost, and it's the one we have the most confidence in. Everything else tends to be underreported to some degree, but we believe the murder count is fairly accurate.

*snip*

[grumpyduck]

1. Do mass shootings not count as murders?

[jimfields33]

2. Of course and according to FBI statistics, they are down. Great news!

[dpibel]

8. We'll not have to worry about that any more!!

Thanks for that, as usual, hilarious analysis.

[Nevilledog]

3. Not sure I understand the question.

If something is a murder, it's a murder. Obviously, people wounded in a mass shooting would not be counted as a murder.

[underpants]

4. RW twitter was repeating the li(n)e they hear repeatedly especially on talk radio

I found an FBI doc that explained it but this is perfect.

JA: The data is incomplete in the sense that it only covers 94.3% of the population, but it’s always been incomplete. That’s not unique to 2023. Historically, 5-6% of the population isn’t covered, and the FBI estimates that portion. But it’s mostly smaller cities that don’t report, and these cities tend to have less crime. Only two out of 90 cities with populations over 250,000 didn’t submit data in 2023. So the FBI is only estimating a small portion of the crime, and those estimates are consistent with what we see from other sources like the CDC and the Gun Violence Archive, particularly for murder and gun violence.

[Nevilledog]

5. Yeah. FOX is lying about it. Says Chicago & Los Angeles weren't included, they were.

[underpants]

7. They've extrapolated that out to "most" and even "no one"

on talk radio. Not just big cities ALL cities.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. 2024 is on pace for another sharp drop

If 2024 finishes how it started, we could be looking at the lowest crime rates across the board since 1950.