It's not even close. Here's why.

[autorank]

When the methodology of the polling leaves out 5=6% of the electorate, the results suck

[MarineCombatEngineer]

1. It really isn't even close, and I don't give a fuck what the "polls" say,

I've never, ever believed, nor followed the "polls", they're all bullshit.
Kamala Harris is going to smoke Been A Dick Donald on Nov.5th and I'm looking forward to doing a happy dance with her victory.

[Polybius]

3. You don't think it's close at all?

What do you think she will win by? As of now, I'm thinking 280 EV's, so close. we'll soon find out.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

5. Nope, I don't and my gut feeling, which has served me well throughout my life, tells me so.

You're right, we'll know soon enough.

[Elessar Zappa]

8. I think the EC will be relatively close but

I think Kamala may win the popular vote by as much as ten million. Joe Biden got seven million more votes than Trump and I think Kamala will improve on it.

[autorank]

11. Now we're talking

and the Biden history is persuasive.

[autorank]

10. Since you ask..

I'm biased, of course (as you may guess from below LOL

Harris. 54% (and easily wins the EC)
Senate 55 Democrats (Including the independent Sens)
House. 240-250

[MarineCombatEngineer]

13. I like your thinking.

[La Coliniere]

14. I'm dreaming

of this kind of outcome myself. Let’s get this done!

[Polybius]

17. That Senate prediction is super optimistic, even if we win FL, TX, and NB, and hold onto MT and OH

We'd have to hold onto WV, and we're down by 30+.

[NoRethugFriends]

31. Silly numbers

[lees1975]

15. 300+ in the EV.

The Republican election officials in Maricopa County, Arizona are so sure of a Harris win in Arizona, based on their county vote, that they have turned the building where ballots will be counted into a small fortress. Why?

Because they are afraid Trump losers will threaten workers if Harris wins.

[SWBTATTReg]

4. I agree. I am getting rather tired of poll after poll after poll, stating this, stating that, and that Cheese is

harvested on the Moon and shipped back to Earth every month.

I have refused to participate in any polls, anything at all, with any polls. They are so easily manipulated to influence the results that a pollster wants to obtain (and they don't tell you this, or state that they are for a republican organization, or tell anybody anything). Especially in this election cycle.

[autorank]

7. The only good use fr most polls

Understanding the motivation of the scammers. . Trump will use the "too close to call narrative" to cry foul.

Can't wait for Harris-Walz to kick some serious ass and hoist a few.

[2naSalit]

12. Anyone who...

Understands stats can see that polls are bullshit.

[Polybius]

2. Video is a week old, which is an eternity in politics

It's gotten a lot closer since last week.

[displacedvermoter]

9. Can you explain why it has gotten closer?

What actions, strong public appearances, policy announcements, or other events Trump or Vance have taken part in do you think generated a tightening in the polls? What Harris misstep, scandal or indication of a lessening in support or enthusiasm in the past week would you say triggered this tightening?

Looking at things objectively, what indications do you see that the Trump campaign is doing better at anything than the Harris campaign? If the polls weren't saying so, wouldn't your eyes, ears, and common sense tell you that Harris was winning?

I am serious, I can't fathom how a tightening in polls is a realistic measure of what I see going on. Am I that naive?

[Polybius]

18. I can only guess

Although I'm mainstream, I go on some pretty far-left Channels. They were recently complaining about her wanting to put a Republican in her cabinet and cozying up to Cheney. That could be it.

[displacedvermoter]

24. Really?

I don't see it, the "pretty far-left" folks here in Vermont, including Bernie and the most liberal of our state elected folks all seem pretty unified for the ticket.

[Polybius]

27. Bernie has ramblings at times, but is smart enough to shut his mouth

Take Cenk from Young Turks. He has been very supportive of Harris, much more so than he was with Clinton and Biden.

However, he was saying that that's one of the reasons for the dip. She said something about a bipartisan commission that ruffled feathers.

[displacedvermoter]

39. That is a tip off to me, right there.

Talking about Bernie and his "ramblings" and him being "smart enough to shut his mouth" after he has been effectively campaigning throughout the Midwest, and still is, tells me all about your views I need to know.

Another post 2016 shit stirrer, all set to blame a Harris defeat -- which you seem more inclined to see coming than most here -- on what you perceive as the Party' s left flank. Hence your concern about tightening polls.

And no, by the way, you take Cenk. I have been ignoring him for some time now, at least since he stopped being a real young Turk.

[Polybius]

43. Cenk and I do not always share the same viewpoints; however, I find his show to be quite entertaining

He has shown significant improvement over the past few months, fully supporting Harris.

Regarding Bernie, by "ramblings," I refer to a recent interview in which he expressed that Harris does not align as far left as he would prefer on a particular issue, which I believe pertained to labor. While he is entitled to his opinion, I would have preferred that he refrained from voicing it on national television.

As for my perspective, we are a diverse party. Our membership includes individuals who support Maduro, as well as those like myself and the esteemed Brooklynite. Ultimately, we are all united in our intention to vote for the same candidate

[dpibel]

28. Comedy gold!

"mainstream"

"pretty far-left"

Your stylings are superb!

[Polybius]

30. I did say it was just a guess

I am mainstream though. To Republicans I'm a progressive, and to you guys I'm a centrist. Not sure what else to call it.

[dpibel]

33. Republicans don't know the word "progressive"

You're either them or a commie.

And to "us guys," centrist generally means, "Don't shout at me for pushing right-wing talking points."

But I'm only guessing here, yunnerstan.

[Polybius]

35. I don't push rwtp's

The poster asked why she may have gone down in the polls a little. The truth is no one knows. It's all guesswork at this point.


Maybe she wins by 6 and we can all rest easy. While I don't think that will be the case, I think she wins.

[NoRethugFriends]

32. Nope. None of that is going to change a vote

[Polybius]

34. We have around 80 million votes on our side

There's always a few idiot purists who might have been ruffled.

[autorank]

23. I can't either

The news excepts crap polling with weak methodology that shows a tightening race SO WE STAY TUNED/CLICKED IN.

To capture the 1st time voters, the pissed off + pro-choice women voters, and to use previous results that neglect the real gender gap suppresses what appears obvious based on events - the Harris-Walz campaign is smokin'!!!

[Self Esteem]

26. My guess...

The election has always been close. Kamala has never held a comfortable lead on average. So, even a marginal shift of a point could dramatically change the dynamics of the race. And typically, races tend to get closer around the election as the party supporters begin to rally around their candidate.

I'm gonna level with you: this feels a lot like 2016 to me. I think Harris wins but the same stuff I see thrown around about this election was also being tossed around back then too: specifically there was no way it was close and that Hillary would win in a romp.

The thing is, even before the Comey letter, the race started tightening again. The Access Hollywood tape? Yeah, that dinged Trump initially but it faded.

The Comey letter leaked on October 28, 2016. At that time, Hillary's average lead in the polls was 4.6 points. A week earlier, it had been 7. So, the race was already tightening by that point.

Which happens. a good amount of time.

But I mention that because I was baffled all throughout 2016 that Trump could keep it close. Especially after the Access Hollywood tape. I thought that was the ballgame. I seriously did. I didn't think he had prayer after that video came out. In fact, I remember getting nervous that the Republicans would try to dump him to save face. But the thought of him winning the election at that moment? Didn't seen remotely possible.

And it wasn't just the Comey letter that gave him an opening. The polls were already tightening AGAIN. How could they tighten with everything we saw? From his horrible debate performance, to his non-apology apology on the Access Hollywood tape ... it was all utterly crazy and yet the weekend of the Comey letter breaking (before polling could adequately even pick up how the Comey letter would impact the race), her lead was down to one point according to ABC News.

It's happened before. We can't pretend it can't happen again.

This is a tough race. It will be close. Energy is with Harris but it's not a lock by any means.

[Polybius]

29. He also far exceded his previous performances in the final debate on October 19

Not saying that he beat her, but he did way better then the other two.

[dwayneb]

41. Simple - their propaganda machine is now in high gear

I personally think that the aggregate of polls does present a reasonably reliable trend. And I am sure that both campaigns are paying close attention to that aggregate. Of course any particular individual poll is not particularly useful.

As far as what Trump is doing "better" it's pretty simple. They are now amplifying the lies through their propaganda machine at every opportunity they can find. Witness the sickening Fox News "interviews" in recent days. Our enemies understand well that the American populace writ large is well prepared to sop up whatever feel-good fascist pipe dream they want to peddle.

And as we get closer to this election they will pull out every stop, there is no limit to the lies they will spread, the hate and fear that they will use to twist the minds of the pawns that they are using to regain power.

[lees1975]

16. That depends on which poll you look at. There were several posts here over the past couple of days that show her

lead widening.

Pay a little bit of attention here. Democrats must have some internal polling that gives them a lot of confidence to drop millions in television ads in Florida and Texas Senate races.

[Rocknation]

6. It certainly explains what happened in 2020

Last edited Sat Apr 5, 2025, 05:07 PM - Edit history (2)

Posted by Rocknation November 2020:

"With a combination of overall higher turnout (despite the voter suppression attacks); most of Biden's votes being cast early or by mail; and only about just one third of the votes actually being cast ON Election Day, maybe there just weren't ENOUGH blue in-person machine ballots TO flip."
More

Posted by Rocknation January 2021:

"Trump's (AND Biden's) 'new' votes ALL came from those who DIDN'T vote in 2016 due to being either too young or too apathetic. "
More

Rocknation

[autorank]

25. Great analysis. I think that you would love this guy

&t=4395s

[Rocknation]

37. Thanks for the praise and the link. And here's something else I posted in November 2020

Last edited Tue Oct 22, 2024, 08:55 AM - Edit history (3)

I...(didn't) expect the election to be settled on election night...I avoided TV, radio and internet until lunchtime...(of) the next day...(then) logged on...expect(ing)...a stressful emotional roller coaster...

(I)t didn't sink in right away that Joe was leading (Trump by) 243-214 (electoral votes). Equally important...Joe was ahead in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada: winning those three states alone would give him EXACTLY 270 electoral votes!

About three hours later...I came across a story about Joe's transition team Web page, and that's when I knew it was over: that's when I knew that JOE knew that he'd scored the...270 electoral votes...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=14611261



Rocknation

[Brainfodder]

19. He should lose by a ton, but I see 22M+ loss.

Which means zero chance at E.C. win for the weirdo that struggles walking down stairs.

[iemanja]

20. Forget FL and TX

focus on the states we need.

[autorank]

22. Good point. FL & TX can handle themselves

FL has the repeal initiative for the DeSantis 6-week abortion ban + a 500k or so Haitian-American population who may just take offense at the dogs & cats BS from Vance and the Orange menace—lots of lurking righteous payback.

Texas has its own kick-ass Democratic Party. The state has about the worst turnout rate in the country, so it's in the people's hands.

[iemanja]

21. All I care is that she wins

I don't need to hear it's not close. That's wishful thinking. As long as she wins the EC, I'm happy.

[Self Esteem]

36. That's how I see it.

[B.See]

40. Exactly, I'm far more troubled by

the notion that she has it in the bag than I am by very CAUTIOUS optimism.

"I ain't heard no fat lady." (Independence Day)

[iemanja]

42. I'm with you on that.

[oasis]

38. I'm all in for Kamala's BIG WIN!