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It's all an illusion. Trump is losing. (Original Post) calguy Oct 2024 OP
Kicked with gusto! North Shore Chicago Oct 2024 #1
K & R Emile Oct 2024 #2
Losing big time malaise Oct 2024 #3
Omg! Watch this, people! Spot on! Vote! Joinfortmill Oct 2024 #4
This should be a commercial. Great explanation of the political fiction we are swimming in. tetedur Oct 2024 #5
RSO rso Oct 2024 #14
Stick this on TV during football games! Beartracks Oct 2024 #29
She has a YouTube channel barbtries Oct 2024 #37
K&R DemonGoddess Oct 2024 #6
Spot on! JR11 Oct 2024 #7
Almost everything she says, I've seen independently confirmed. Nice to hear it all strung together into one argument. eppur_se_muova Oct 2024 #8
Bravo Madame! ProudMNDemocrat Oct 2024 #9
There may well be a Big Lie Part II in our future, but that isn't Plan A for the Republicans. Shermann Oct 2024 #10
Seriously? lees1975 Oct 2024 #13
Well put Farmer-Rick Oct 2024 #23
If these bogus polls are so easily identifiable, then 538 should have no trouble filtering them out. Shermann Oct 2024 #24
538 was three fourths of the way through 2022 and didn't filter them out. 538 is junk. lees1975 Oct 2024 #49
Even if you ignore the Republican-aligned polls, this race is still a toss-up. Self Esteem Oct 2024 #48
Well, not really. lees1975 Oct 2024 #50
The only one ignoring reality seems to be you. Self Esteem Oct 2024 #52
Reality is this WILL BE CLOSE. Anyone thinking Harris is easily winning is filling themselves. oldsoftie Oct 2024 #59
This is most definitely a component of The Plan. Pacifist Patriot Oct 2024 #22
How does giving away $1 million a day to various registered Republicans factor into things? misanthrope Oct 2024 #46
What SHE said! ... x1000!! sarchasm Oct 2024 #11
K & R lees1975 Oct 2024 #12
Her last statement nails it. llmart Oct 2024 #15
Right on!!!! ananda Oct 2024 #16
WOW -- the Harris/Walz campaign should give this woman a job!!! Jmb 4 Harris-Walz Oct 2024 #17
Thank You...Perfect response! lucca18 Oct 2024 #18
OMFG she rocked it. Prairie_Seagull Oct 2024 #19
A big K&R. c-rational Oct 2024 #20
Preach it, Politics Girl! peggysue2 Oct 2024 #21
Preach it, peggysue2! Frank D. Lincoln Oct 2024 #40
Thank you, sir! peggysue2 Oct 2024 #41
Amen. polichick Oct 2024 #25
A big K&R! Bayard Oct 2024 #26
A must watch. dalton99a Oct 2024 #27
He's getting schlonged! IrishAfricanAmerican Oct 2024 #28
GOTV Cirsium Oct 2024 #30
Kick. N/T Upthevibe Oct 2024 #31
I believe this, however: h2ebits Oct 2024 #32
I'm glad this was shared. shotten99 Oct 2024 #33
Totally agree Abstractartist Oct 2024 #34
Yes, yes, and yes. Magoo48 Oct 2024 #35
I *mostly* agree with this, but even when you exclude all of the out-of-the-blue junk polls... RidinWithHarris Oct 2024 #36
Thank you. I agree nt oldsoftie Oct 2024 #60
Recommended bagimin Oct 2024 #38
Sorry, don't like this explanation angrychair Oct 2024 #39
Great synopsis townie Oct 2024 #42
She is really good johnnyfins Oct 2024 #43
At a minimum johnnyfins Oct 2024 #44
An illusion indeed augyboston Oct 2024 #45
I like her!!! wolfie001 Oct 2024 #47
Damn! FirefighterJo Oct 2024 #51
Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2024 #53
Back again I see. See ya!! GP6971 Oct 2024 #54
..... KS Toronado Oct 2024 #55
Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2024 #57
TY calguy! IGNORE THE POLLS! That's What Many on this Site Cha Oct 2024 #56
I hope so. One thing I do see is that there are a lot of polls that I have never heard of suddenly appearing on the JohnSJ Oct 2024 #58
Only "poll" that counts is the one on November 5 dwayneb Oct 2024 #61
Assmusen and some other outlier polls are workiing overtime to skew the averages. Historic NY Oct 2024 #62
Exactly bdamomma Oct 2024 #63
I hope she's working for OR with the DNC. calimary Oct 2024 #64
Kick... TY! Cha Oct 2024 #65
Kick.. TY! Cha Oct 2024 #66

tetedur

(1,418 posts)
5. This should be a commercial. Great explanation of the political fiction we are swimming in.
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 09:21 AM
Oct 2024

This woman standing in her kitchen is as articulate and edifying as anyone I have seen on cable news.

 

JR11

(78 posts)
7. Spot on!
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 09:30 AM
Oct 2024

The way the Trump and the GOP have been crafting optics for all these years, they need to be rooted out for the world-class grifters they aspire to be!

eppur_se_muova

(41,938 posts)
8. Almost everything she says, I've seen independently confirmed. Nice to hear it all strung together into one argument.
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 09:45 AM
Oct 2024

All the pieces are there, the M$M just isn't putting them together. And many of them don't regard that as part of their job description -- "it's editorializing, not reporting" -- but the Reich wing never hesitates to editorialize, nor to pass off its opinions -- and even delusions -- as facts, alternative or otherwise, and they have their own media empires to spread their lies. Media are owned by people with money, who tend to lean right-wing; and rich people who lean far right get into media for no other reason than to manipulate public opinion, as made explicit by Murdoch and Ailes when they founded FAUX "News", and by Leon Tesla when he bought Xitter. So the Left is grossly underrepresented in the M$M, and maybe even more so on social media, because the Reich wing *knows* that only this sort of lying and manipulation will let them win. To Dems, it's distasteful and we hesitate to go there, but to the Gang Of Putin, it's a matter of survival, and "death take the hindmost", so no amount of desperation on their part is ever too much.

Shermann

(9,062 posts)
10. There may well be a Big Lie Part II in our future, but that isn't Plan A for the Republicans.
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 09:47 AM
Oct 2024

That'd just be a way to save face and make liberals cry. They want to win at all costs, and fake polls don't really achieve that end. So, this doesn't wash. Big Lie Part I didn't accomplish much politically, in fact the opposite appears to be true. Fake polls generate some confirmation bias clickbait revenue and that's about it.

lees1975

(7,046 posts)
13. Seriously?
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 10:14 AM
Oct 2024

Big Lie is all we hear from Trump, that and the immigrants are the source of all of our problems, most of which don't exist. The polls they are flooding the market with are identifiable, and always just two or three points south of where the mainstream polls are, to look credible. That's why the Democratic campaigns run internal polling and don't release the results.

The rallies are things Trump points to openly and when the crowds don't materialize, as in this election, it's Biden's fault because they have to turn people away because he won't provide enough secret service protection. Except there are no lines for Trump any more, documented by reporters he won't let inside to photograph empty seats.

If the big lie isn't plan A, what is?

Farmer-Rick

(12,663 posts)
23. Well put
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 11:49 AM
Oct 2024

Yeah, the Putin pedo-Trump cult would love to win vote counts and electoral college votes. But their heart really isn't in it.

They were winning when Biden was our candidate. But that didn't require much work on the GOP's part. When everything is equal, and liberal voter turnout is quashed, GOP always wins.

But since Harris came into the picture, everything changed.
Liberals weren't equal anymore.

We are better, younger, tougher, smarter and not afraid. Let's face it, Biden only rarely called out Trump and his crazy behavior. We loved it when he did, but he rarely did it. Kamala calls it out several
times a day. And if she doesn't then Tim Walz does. She is constant and steady and sure of herself.

That's really hard to beat especially by a demented Nazi psychopath with a history of sexual abuse and criminal convictions. Add to that, he stripped his ground game of almost all funding and expected the corporate media and Evangelicals to perform that task for him even in the battleground states.

So, once Kamala came on the scene, he dryed up his campaigning and is betting on getting his Supremes to put him in as president. Or some other post election manipulation and con game will get him the presidency. All the while he waves around the manipulated polls and fake crowd shots.

He may even be planning another attack but with more highly trained troops this time. You can bet all the filthy-rich Nazis and Putin lovers are meeting in Mara-go-loco right now. They are working out a post election strategy to attack in one form or another.

Shermann

(9,062 posts)
24. If these bogus polls are so easily identifiable, then 538 should have no trouble filtering them out.
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 11:54 AM
Oct 2024

The reality is that this election is a coin toss, and the Republicans have as good a shot as any at getting an electoral majority. A popular majority would be a nice bonus but not strictly required.

lees1975

(7,046 posts)
49. 538 was three fourths of the way through 2022 and didn't filter them out. 538 is junk.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 12:24 AM
Oct 2024

Then they had all kinds of fuss trying to figure out how to adjust after the bad data. For them, they managed to rescue themselves a couple of weeks before the midterms, but I think they still wound up finishing right on the margin of error, like most of the polls did, not nearly as accurate or scientific as they claim.

Follow the money trail.

 

Self Esteem

(2,248 posts)
48. Even if you ignore the Republican-aligned polls, this race is still a toss-up.
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 07:57 PM
Oct 2024

Trump is not a lock to lose. He is better positioned than four years ago and even four years before that. This is a reality some of you just refuse to accept.

There is a reason Harris has adjusted her strategy the last two weeks. Not only has she been more active campaigning, but she is doing way more interviews - including going on FOX News. Anyone who has the basic fundamental understanding of how campaigning works can read the tea leaves and they all point to Harris' team understanding just how close this race is.

I think Harris pulls it out but it's borderline fantasy at this point to make definitive claims that Trump is losing - and will lose.

This is going to be a nailbiter election that probably comes down to a few thousands votes across multiple swing states. And yes, that means she could lose.

I guarantee you Harris' internals are not pointing to a decisive win - if they have her up at all.

And when the campaign says they're the underdog and that this is a very, very close race, they're not doing so to be cute with the voters. They aren't trying to keep everyone from getting complacent. They're doing it because they're telling the truth. And I can say that so confidently because four years ago around this time (it was in October), Jen O'Malley Dillon, who runs the Harris campaign, got a call with anyone who wanted to attend (it was billed as a grass roots conference call) to share their numbers. She literally walked through the public on where they stood politically. She also said, flat-out, that the election was much closer than the national polls indicated (which had Biden up between 7-10 points).

I wasn't on DU back then but I lurked a lot before I registered and I remember that when those numbers discussed, so many people here were flippant about it. They believed it was entirely a campaign strategy because they didn't want voters to get complacent.

It wasn't.

Here's a post that references that discussion.

We're seeing the exact same thing here. Ignore Harris when she says it's close. Ignore all the talk about how this is a razor-thin margin - it's all smoke! This election is going to be a blowout!

No.

The fact the same Jen O'Malley Dillon isn't walking voters through their internals like she did four years ago - showing their polling in each swing state - is a sign. We would be stupid to ignore it. That sign doesn't necessarily mean Harris is losing. But it probably means her internals are extremely close and they're not walking everyone through this like in 2020 because they probably understand if those internals got out (the concrete numbers), it would probably create some level of panic among Democrats - and then feed the media narrative the campaign might lose. They don't want. No campaign wants the final message to be that they're trending toward a loss.

Conversely, though, you have to be honest and say the truth in words that aren't likely to cause panic.

But we're not going to get a walkthrough on her internals. Maybe after the election but not before and that should humble a lot of people here about the state of he race.

BTW, here's the map Jen O'Malley Dillon shared with everyone back in 2020:

lees1975

(7,046 posts)
50. Well, not really.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 12:25 AM
Oct 2024

But if you want to keep clutching your pearls and losing sleep over faulty polls for the next two weeks, please don't let reality stop you.

 

Self Esteem

(2,248 posts)
52. The only one ignoring reality seems to be you.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 01:00 AM
Oct 2024

This election is a toss-up. The Harris campaign expects it to be a toss-up and they certainly don't think it's in the bag like so many people here claim.

But I'm sure, when Harris is declared the winner, and it's by a very narrow margin across multiple states, you'll be back to tell me you were wrong... right? lol

 

oldsoftie

(13,538 posts)
59. Reality is this WILL BE CLOSE. Anyone thinking Harris is easily winning is filling themselves.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 07:19 AM
Oct 2024

I guess those people are forgetting how HRC was going to destroy Trump in '16 too.
There is NOTHING to suggest either has a big lead in ANY battle ground. GOTV is the key to victory

That being said, I hope she's right & I eat plate after plate of crow

Pacifist Patriot

(25,212 posts)
22. This is most definitely a component of The Plan.
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 11:48 AM
Oct 2024

There likely isn't a plan A, plan B, etc.

According to a relative who is a Republican in a state legislature and an acquaintance who left my county's GOP executive committee last year, there is a coordinated effort to cast doubt on the integrity of the election and obscure results to the point of throwing the entire thing into delayed chaos. Dumping skewed polls is one small slice of that pie. It may not be The Strategy, but you bet your bippy it is a component of it.

The terrifying part is that there are a lot of tactics being deployed right now all across the United States. If they could conceive it, they are trying it. Most may likely fall flat or fail outright. Some may cause problems. We won't know until we see it all shake out. This is one reason why this absolutely needs to be a landslide in as many places as we can possibly make it.

ETA: It isn't just anecdotal from these two folks above. The Harris legal team is queued up for this. Many legal scholars have been sounding these alarm bells for the past few years. The rat fuckery is everywhere!

misanthrope

(9,495 posts)
46. How does giving away $1 million a day to various registered Republicans factor into things?
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 07:05 PM
Oct 2024

Because that most certainly is being used in this election. And if someone has that kind of money to squander, why would paying for polling be any stretch?

llmart

(17,614 posts)
15. Her last statement nails it.
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 10:50 AM
Oct 2024

"horrible era" indeed. I think we all can relate to that.

peggysue2

(12,531 posts)
21. Preach it, Politics Girl!
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 11:35 AM
Oct 2024

This is where we're living--inside an enormous delusion bubble created by Trump's Flying Monkey Brigade because:

THEY ARE LOSING.

They're losing and they're desperate for the power to bring the world down on our heads. As odious as Agent Orange is he is but a vessel for the machinations of those far smarter and malevolent than the man himself. They want a New Order forged in their own image, the Steve Bannon/Mike Flynn types, the Neo-Nazi enthusiasts, the white nationalists, the tech-bros and other twisted billionaire club members, the power hungry of every discredited ideology are all banging at the door.

But the truth? Despite all the howls and noise, there are more Americans who still believe in the American ethos than those dedicated to its destruction.

Our first step is to defeat them at the ballot box. We are winning but we haven't won yet.

The slog has just begun. We will win on November 5th but the fight will continue to inauguration and beyond.

We can do this. We can make our own noise.

Cirsium

(3,942 posts)
30. GOTV
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 01:10 PM
Oct 2024

GOTV does not make it impossible for the Trump plan to succeed. Politics Girl is correct that we are living through the biggest psyop in history. She is correct that it is a manufactured illusion that Trump is winning. She is correct that the illusion is being created in order to give credence to claims that the election was rigged and that Democrats are cheating. All true, and well said. Also, GOTV is important, of course, and I would not suggest otherwise.

However, the plan to dispute and try to overturn the election results will proceed no matter how much Trump loses by. Our job is to prepare to deal with a coup attempt. That is quite different than winning an election.

h2ebits

(1,002 posts)
32. I believe this, however:
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 01:32 PM
Oct 2024

people are unpredictable. We must up our ground game and get people to the polls! Do not assume anything!! The only poll that matters is November 5th!

shotten99

(691 posts)
33. I'm glad this was shared.
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 02:54 PM
Oct 2024

I’m addicted to watching the polls, but I haven’t heard of 99% of the pollsters I’ve been seeing.

Gallup, Rasmussen, even Zogby aren’t showing up frequently.

Abstractartist

(446 posts)
34. Totally agree
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 03:18 PM
Oct 2024

Screw these polls. They are right wing bought and actually right wing owned… remember this. The majority of MSM are right wing owned. 538 is owned by ABC. NBC, Fox, NY Times, Sinclair stations, Comcast are all putting out their own bogus bullshit polls. The only poll you need to worry about is getting yourself, family and friends to the voting POLLS.

Couple of weeks left, let’s close this out big…

TRUMP IS LOSING….Just ask Lyndsey Graham… he knows.😝

RidinWithHarris

(790 posts)
36. I *mostly* agree with this, but even when you exclude all of the out-of-the-blue junk polls...
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 03:31 PM
Oct 2024

...the polls from well-established pollsters, who (despite the conspiratorial paranoia of many here on DU) might have polling model problems, but are hardly likely to have been "bought", those polls are way tighter than I can be comfortable with given how truly awful and repulsive a candidate Trump is.

You can feel good about Harris's chances in November (I do) without crediting American voters for being smart enough not to support Trump. Sadly, they aren't that bright or well-informed. They are perhaps barely smart enough (on average) to bumble into the correct decision, but deserve no more credit than that.

angrychair

(12,278 posts)
39. Sorry, don't like this explanation
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 04:10 PM
Oct 2024

It sounds like it's trying to make people deny reality.
This explanation only works if we are also willing to say that those same polls showing us winning the House and Senate races in those same states are wrong as well.

Sorry reality is our country is full of hate and violence and racism and misogyny and bigotry and xenophobia and it is just not the country we want it to be. It just never was. I don't know what the right answers are but it's 50/50 if we don't end up like Iran or Afghanistan (controlled by religious extremists when majority didn't want it)

johnnyfins

(3,767 posts)
43. She is really good
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 05:47 PM
Oct 2024

These videos are her lane for sure.

Think she'd make a good press sec for Kamala? A brutal one for a change?

augyboston

(379 posts)
45. An illusion indeed
Sun Oct 20, 2024, 06:53 PM
Oct 2024

Totally on point, that is exactly what tRump and MAGA are trying to do and we all need to do whatever we can to make absolutely certain that their manipulations fail bigly.

Record turnout in early voting across the country and in the swing states is proof that we are winning and winning big. It isn't MAGA that is turning out, it is the true patriots of this country who believe in its institutions and in democracy.

We need to pound the living shit out of them and we need to be totally relentless in doing so.

Flood the zone Blue!

Response to calguy (Original post)

Response to KS Toronado (Reply #55)

Cha

(319,067 posts)
56. TY calguy! IGNORE THE POLLS! That's What Many on this Site
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 01:44 AM
Oct 2024

Have been Telling Those Who Are WORRIED About the POLLS!

Next time I see one of those posts I'm going to Reply with This...



Thank You... Politics Girl has it Goin' ON!!
 

JohnSJ

(98,883 posts)
58. I hope so. One thing I do see is that there are a lot of polls that I have never heard of suddenly appearing on the
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 01:55 AM
Oct 2024

scene, and it does make one wonder why this sudden influx of new pollsters has suddenly appeared?

The OP may have a valid argument.

Historic NY

(40,037 posts)
62. Assmusen and some other outlier polls are workiing overtime to skew the averages.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 09:17 AM
Oct 2024

some dumbasses bet 30 million in the gambler poll

bdamomma

(69,532 posts)
63. Exactly
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 09:31 AM
Oct 2024

She is absolutely correct with her assessment. They are cranking up the propaganda machine, with those who she has mentioned one of them being Putin. Let's get out our vote!!!!!!!!!!

We did it in 2020 and we can do it again!!!!!!

calimary

(90,010 posts)
64. I hope she's working for OR with the DNC.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 01:42 PM
Oct 2024

She’s smart, articulate, and credible.

Glad she’s on OUR side!

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