Swing State Early Voting Update 2; 45,901,810 Americans have voted.

[Mr.WeRP]

Last edited Mon Oct 28, 2024, 04:30 PM - Edit history (1)

This is an update of where the election is on early voting and as it is compared to the vote totals from 2020. Data is sourced from https://election.lab.ufl.edu

Previous update here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219601093

When states share party affiliation, that is shown by percent breakdown. When states share gender, that is shown since there is an obvious gender gap this election cycle. (EDIT: WI does not share early voting data.) I am also considering FL a swing state this election cycle. I would have included TX but they do not share early voting data. Differentials from the prior update are shown with + or - values in parenthesis.

Summary: turnout in early voting is picking up with just over a week to November 5th. All swing states have surpassed 50% of the total early voting turnout for 2020. The largest early voting turnout so far is in GA, MI, and NC which is at 60%+ of total early vote turnout in 2020. Dems are outpacing Reps in early voting for PA by large margins. The gender gap remains large in early voting with women outpacing men by 10+ points in all states that report it. Additionally, party affiliation rates seem to be largely holding. Small changes in party turnout show Independents are increasing their rate of participation at the expense of Democrats (that is, Republicans are mostly not increasing their rate of turnout). 21 million mail in ballots are yet to be returned.

AZ
=================
Total: 1,294,222 (+377,534 since last update)
Percent of 2020: 52.4 (+15.4)
Percent Dem: 35.1 (-0.8)
Percent Rep: 41.9 (+0.1)

FL
=================
Total: 4,598,924 (+1,780,999)
Percent of 2020: 51 (+21)
Percent Dem: 34 (-2.3)
Percent Rep: 44.9 (+1.4)

GA
=================
Total: 2,831,512 (+671,532)
Percent of 2020: 70 (+16.2)
Percent Female: 55.4 (+0.1)
Percent Male: 44.5 (+0.4)

MI
=================
Total: 1,896,105 (+587,008)
Percent of 2020: 67 (+20.9)
Percent Female: 55.4 (-1)
Percent Male: 44.3 (+0.9)

NV
=================
Total: 644,053 (+311,385)
Percent of 2020: 57.4 (+27.8)
Percent Dem: 34.7 (-1.3)
Percent Rep: 39.7 (+0.2)

NC
=================
Total: 2,820,002 (+812,343)
Percent of 2020: 61.3 (+17.6)
Percent Dem: 33.3 (-0.6)
Percent Rep: 34.1 (-0.1)
Percent Female: 51.9 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 41.9 (-0.3)

PA
=================
Total: 1,414,839 (+293,935)
Percent of 2020: 54 (+11.4)
Percent Dem: 58.2 (-2.8)
Percent Rep: 31.4 (+0.8)

VA
=================
Total: 1,586,707 (+381,645)
Percent of 2020: 58 (+14)
Percent Female: 55.4 (+0.2)
Percent Male: 44.6 (-0.2)

[JCMach1]

1. Stats are a bit misleading here as Rep's were against

Early votes in 2020.

[Mr.WeRP]

2. Actually, the participation of Republicans is not that far off from 2020 in most of these states.

2020 Republican Total turnout in Early Voting:
AZ: 37%
FL: 37.8%
NC: 31.7%
NV: 35.6%
PA: 23.7%

[JCMach1]

4. So not good for them. You might expect some regression

To 2016, or 2012 early voting numbers (%)for the R's

[Mr.WeRP]

3. Updated to include total vote count and outstanding mail in ballots.

[lindysalsagal]

5. I get Harris 286 with these numbers, even w/o GA or NV.

If Harris takes MI, PA and NC, she's POTUS.

[Mr.WeRP]

6. I am worried that is not enough.

That means a single state flip or denied could make the difference and I do not trust SCOTUS. If Trump gets one challenge to them and that’s all he needs, then SCOTUS could flip the outcome like they did in 2000.