60 MILLION HAVE VOTED ALREADY! 38 million outstanding mail-in ballots. Swing State Early Vote Update!

[Mr.WeRP]

This is an update of where the election is on early voting and as it is compared to the vote totals from 2020. Data is sourced from https://election.lab.ufl.edu

Previous update here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219620223

Summary: turnout in early voting is massive with just under a week to November 5th. All swing states have surpassed 60% of the total early voting turnout for 2020 except for PA and VA. The largest early voting turnout so far is in GA, MI, and NC which is at 77%+ of total early vote turnout in 2020 with GA in the lead at 87%! Dems rate in early voting for PA is dropping but still lead by a large margin. The gender gap remains large in early voting with women outpacing men by 10+ points in all states that report it. Independent voters are turning out, eating into participation rates of both Dems and Reps in states that report it.

Key: When states share party affiliation, that is shown by percent breakdown. When states share gender, that is shown since there is an obvious gender gap this election cycle. (EDIT: WI does not share early voting data.) I am also considering FL a swing state this election cycle. I would have included TX but they do not share early voting data. Differentials from the prior update are shown with + or - values in parenthesis.

AZ
=================
Total: 1,826,892 (+532,670 since last update) [votes per day: 266,335]
Percent of 2020: 74 (+21.6)
Percent Dem: 33.8 (-1.3)
Percent Rep: 41.3 (-0.6)

FL
=================
Total: 6,220,645 (+1,621,721) [votes per day: 810,860]
Percent of 2020: 69.3 (+18.3)
Percent Dem: 33.1 (-0.9)
Percent Rep: 44.8 (-0.1)

GA
=================
Total: 2,831,512 (+650,840) [votes per day: 325,420]
Percent of 2020: 87 (+17)
Percent Female: 55.6 (+0.2)
Percent Male: 43.6 (-0.9)

MI
=================
Total: 2,197,885 (+301,780) [votes per day: 150,890]
Percent of 2020: 77.3 (+10.3)
Percent Female: 55.2 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 44.3 (0)

NV
=================
Total: 872,011 (+227,958) [votes per day: 113,979]
Percent of 2020: 77.7 (+20.3)
Percent Dem: 34.1 (-0.6)
Percent Rep: 38.9 (-0.8)

NC
=================
Total: 3,621,936 (+801,934) [votes per day: 400,967]
Percent of 2020: 79 (+17.7)
Percent Dem: 32.7 (-0.5)
Percent Rep: 34.0 (-0.1)
Percent Female: 51.9 (0)
Percent Male: 41.5 (-0.4)

PA
=================
Total: 1,547,486 (+132,647) [votes per day: 66,323]
Percent of 2020: 59 (+5)
Percent Dem: 56.9 (-1.3)
Percent Rep: 32.4 (+1)

VA
=================
Total: 1,692,388 1,586,707 (+105,681) [votes per day: 52,840]
Percent of 2020: 58 (+0)
Percent Female: 55.4 (+0)
Percent Male: 44.6 (-0)

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Wow

So it's possible 100 million people have voted already. With some more mail in days and early voting days, you could have 2/3s of the votes already cast before Tuesday. This bodes very well for Dems because of a few things. Dems are more liekly to vote early. And Dems also face longer lines on election day in the cities, this will reduce those.

People who don't live in cities don't always understand that millions of people who do live in cities go to their polling stations before or after work every 4 years and see a line that is too long to wait in so they just don't vote. Early and absentee voting eases that and allows many of those people to vote when they wouldn't have otherwise.

[Mr.WeRP]

4. I suspect if the same rate of returned mail-in ballots happens as in 2020, yes, we will have over 100m early voters

62% of them going to Harris if you believe the polls of early voters...

[Johnny2X2X]

8. If Trump got 62% on election day

Harris would win by 9 points nationally. If Trump wins Tuesday votes 67.7% to 33.3%, she would win the national vote by 2.5%.

I am cautiously optimistic. The data coming in for some of these states is really really favorable to Harris and some of it suggests Republicans are voting for her at a decent clip, maybe as much as 10-15%.

We are all on pins and needles, but I try to step back and put on an independent hat, what would we be saying if the data showed the opposite with Trump dominating early voting, but Harris was favored to dominate day of voting? I think if multiple polls showed Trump was winning early voting by 25 points and that 2/3s of the votes will be cast before election day, this place would be in full blown meltdown 24 hours a day. I think the media would already be calling the election over which would depress same day turnout severely.

[Mr.WeRP]

13. Excellent analysis!

[getagrip_already]

2. One difference this cycle is republicans are being urged to vote early...

Eloon is spending millions on ads for example urging republicans in swing states to vote early.

The benefits are clear. You bank returns, and your gotv teams can concentrate on fewer homes.

Tsf doesnt like it because he wants a red mirage, where he is ahead on election night because day of voting comes in first.

[Mr.WeRP]

3. I don't think it's working for them. Polling of folks who have voted already are showing Harris with a large lead.

Given that is from media polling organizations, I take that only as a hopeful point of data and nothing else.

[Gaytano70]

5. In 2020, almost 160 million people total voted, a record number of people.

I don't know how early voted in 2020, but it feels like we are on track to break the record!

[Mr.WeRP]

9. If the same pace of early voting continues through this weekend

Then we will definitely break the early voting numbers of 2020. Total early votes for 2020 were 101 million. We are at 98 million now assuming the same rate of return on mail in ballots.

[Gaytano70]

18. THANKS!

I only googled for total votes cast, and the website I found did not differentiate early voting

I hope we can even hit 200 mill! (which would be amazing in a country of 335 mil!)

[Tom_Foolery]

6. Just voted in Kentucky...

Longest line that I have ever stood in. I have been voting since 1980.

[Mr.WeRP]

16. That's good to hear! Thank you.

[Tribetime]

7. I think TargetSmart was figuring about 80 million early votes

So this will far surpass that

[Wednesdays]

10. 60 million, eh? That's 40% of the total 2020 vote. nt

[ProudMNDemocrat]

11. 2020 totals were 155 + Million....

This will be a RECORD turnout with WOMEN in the driver's seat VOTING for their RIGHTS and AGAINST tRump!

Keep it up Ladies, young first-time voters, Latinos, African-Americans, Asia Pacific Islanders, the Newly Naturalized, etc.

[Mr.WeRP]

12. Total votes in 2020 were 150 million. Total early vote was 101 million

That include early vote in person + mail-in ballots.

We are on track to blow away 2020 turnout overall.

[Gaytano70]

19. Thank you, women, for saving the USA (again!)💙

Good on ALL of us too!

[Timewas]

14. Looks like

In states that report it repugs are outpacing dems by a couple points... Hopefully these are crossover voters.

[Mr.WeRP]

15. Not all states. And Independents are swinging harder than in 2020

If you accept the polling on early voters, Harris has close to 40 million of these early votes

[Polybius]

17. Why don't Republicans in PA like early voting?

Looks like they've embraced it everywhere else.