77 Million Have Voted, 32 million mail-in ballots outstanding; Iowa in Play! FINAL Swing State Early Vote Update!

[Mr.WeRP]

This is an update of where the election is on early voting and as it is compared to the vote totals from 2020. Data is sourced from https://election.lab.ufl.edu

Previous update here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219633537

NEW: I am including Iowa given the final polls there show Harris could win. Also for each state, I call out the reasons Harris could or is winning.

Summary: with early voting wrapped up in most states and only outstanding mail in ballots to be returned, several swing states have already matched and/or exceeded their 2020 early voting total. In particular, MI with 105% of 2020 early voting, GA at 100%, NC at 97%, AZ at 90% and FL with a shocking 87%. This is a great sign for Harris as she needs high turnout to win. Additionally, the gender demographics of early voting has maintained a 10 point advantage with more than 77 million votes cast. When you consider the gender gap in preference and gender gap on turnout, it is no wonder polling of early voters have Harris at 62% of the vote. Assuming we have the same turnout as in 2020 with 156 million voters, and the ballot return rate is the same at 70%, then Harris already has 51 million votes going into November 5th. Trump would need 65% of the votes on Tuesday to tie the popular vote with Harris. I do not see that as being likely. One thing is certain, women have turned out. This election is a referendum on Roe v. Wade.

Forecast: I will make a forecast here based on the following: Assume men outvote women on Tuesday by 5 points (52.5/47.5). This could conceivably give Trump 55% of the vote on Tuesday. That means Harris would win with 56% to Trump at 42% with some losses to independent candidates. I see Harris getting 325 Electoral Votes with the following electoral college result with that percentage (yes, I know it seems like it should be higher):



Key: When states share party affiliation, that is shown by percent breakdown. When states share gender, that is shown since there is an obvious gender gap this election cycle. (EDIT: WI does not share early voting data.) I am also considering FL a swing state this election cycle. I would have included TX but they do not share early voting data. Differentials from the prior update are shown with + or - values in parenthesis.

AZ - Harris could win if independents swing her way
=================
Total: 2,218,682 (+391,790) [votes per day: 156,716]
Percent of 2020: 90 (+18)
Percent Dem: 32.7 (-1.1)
Percent Rep: 40.9 (-0.4)

FL - Harris could win with high turnout of Puerto Ricans, women and independents
=================
Total: 7,833,099 (+1,612,454) [votes per day: 644,982]
Percent of 2020: 87 (+18)
Percent Dem: 32.7 (-0.4)
Percent Rep: 43.8 (-1)

IA - Swinging Harris, likely due to large independent turnout and turnout of women
=================
Total: 553,804
Percent of 2020: 55
Percent Dem: 39.6
Percent Rep: 39.8

GA - Swinging Harris on turnout of women
=================
Total: 4,013,193 (+1,181,681) [votes per day: 472,672]
Percent of 2020: 100 (+13)
Percent Female: 55.6 (+0)
Percent Male: 43.5 (-0.1)

MI - Swinging Harris on turnout of women
=================
Total: 2,983,444 (+785,559) [votes per day: 314,223]
Percent of 2020: 105 (+12.7)
Percent Female: 55.0 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 44.4 (0.1)

NV - Harris could win on independents, women
=================
Total: 872,011 (+205,430) [votes per day: 82,172]
Percent of 2020: 78 (+0.3)
Percent Dem: 34.1 (-0.6)
Percent Rep: 38.9 (-0.8)

NC - Swinging Harris with women and independents
=================
Total: 4,439,451 (+817,515) [votes per day: 327,006]
Percent of 2020: 97 (+18)
Percent Dem: 32.4 (-0.3)
Percent Rep: 33.3 (-0.7)
Percent Female: 51.7 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 41.2 (-0.3)

PA - Swinging Harris on large Democratic turnout
=================
Total: 1,739,606 (+192,120) [votes per day: 66,323]
Percent of 2020: 66 (+7)
Percent Dem: 55.9 (-1)
Percent Rep: 32.9 (+0.5)

VA - Swinging Harris on large turnout of women
=================
Total: 2,008,586 (+316,198) [votes per day: 126,479]
Percent of 2020: 73.4 58 (+16.4)
Percent Female: 55.6 (+0.2)
Percent Male: 44.4 (-0.2)

[SoFlaBro]

1. MAGA will shit the bed when they see how fucked up their chances are and how Orange Bastard is a fuckface loser.

[Mr.WeRP]

2. I think some of them already are

Last edited Sun Nov 3, 2024, 05:47 PM - Edit history (2)

The internal polls of Trump’s campaign must be showing them a similar story… which explains Trump’s unhinged behavior as he circles the drain before Tuesday.

[SoFlaBro]

3. Harris will metaphorically kick the candied shit out of these MAGA fuckstain and their shitty Orange Bastard

[Mr.WeRP]

7. I hunger for it too...

[Doodley]

4. I hope that pans out, but where does the assumption that men outnumber women by only 5% on election day?

[Mr.WeRP]

5. Gender turnout rates always have Women leading by 2-4 points

I am being conservative in my estimation of 5 point advantage to turnout of Men on Tuesday as this would tighten the gender gap but still be inline with the gap in past elections with a light bump for 2024, as I think this election has truly motivated women to get out and vote.

For historical gender data of elections, I used this: https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/voters/gender-differences-voter-turnout

[Doodley]

6. Thanks! Sounds good.