Newt winning tonight is great. But Romney will easily win the nomination.

[Logical]

No one in the GOP leadership likes Newt. He has no chance of winning.

[Enrique]

1. and none of the voters likes Mitt

[roguevalley]

16. I believe both will fall.

Everyone forgets that its people voting. They can't choose and make it happen. This vote should confirm that.

[Kingofalldems]

2. I will sit back and enjoy the Rovian campaign against Newty

[Motown_Johnny]

3. but the bloodletting continues

Only the (R)s could have called ROBME out on his taxes. If we did it he could have dismissed it as socialists attacking success.

[mazzarro]

14. ROBME?

Oh oh oh oh

[femmocrat]

4. It's just Newt's time to "surge".

[Old and In the Way]

5. It's all perception.

Romney's starting to tank in Florida. If he can't change things around there, I'm not sure he's got a large enough base of committed supporters to change the momentum that's now on Newt's candidacy. He's going to have to go negative big time on Newt in Florida...he needs to knock him out or Mitt's chances for grabbing the nomination start to collapse.

[oberliner]

6. Don't be sure

Romney is weak - the whole thing could unravel.

[AlinPA]

7. The "GOP leadership" seems to be the extreme right wing. They also like Newt's style-

talk tough, attack the media and debate moderators. It worked in SC. FL republicans will love it.

[marlakay]

8. Will force mitt to spend a ton of money

And newt has been great at tearing mitt apart stuff Obama team will love to use...it's a win win for our team.

[grantcart]

9. You have overlooked the increasingly obvious alternative, neither will get it.

Nobody in the GOP leadership likes Romney either.


He has NO personal ties to the top.

He hasn't gone around the country helping to elect Congressman and making Lincoln day parties.


Both of them are in it for themselves.


When Romney returned to UTAH to make a speech for Senator Bennett at last years state convention he was booed off the stage, and that was UTAH.


You will start seeing 'favorite' sons, and draft alternatives for the convention.

[DCBob]

21. To have a brokered convention no candidate must have the required number of total delegates.

I suspect one or the other Mitt or Grinch will begin to get some momentum after Florida, depending on who wins, and will likely run the table. So how can they have a brokered convention if a candidate has the votes?

[grantcart]

23. In the past they had winner take all primaries

Now with 29 proportional primaries it will be impossible to gather a majority.

In the past someone would win a few and get an insurmountable win, also they would have a money problem. Citizens United changed all of that.

People forget that last time Hucakbee didn't drop out when he was defeated he kept running until McCain had an absolute majority.

Now with speakers fees and TV contracts on FOX at stake there is no incentive for anyone to get out. Paul isn't going to quit and neither is Gingrich, he already has shown that he will take any insult and keep on coming.

[DCBob]

24. No doubt the proportional primaries could have an impact.

I have not looked that closely at the math. You may well be right. We shall see.

[Rowdyboy]

10. Chuck Todd, what are you doing wasting time on DU! You have work to do on the teevee....

[underpants]

11. Here is the key - the first ballot at the convention

after the first ballot the states' rule differ but some or all of the delegates will be released to vote how they want to.

That is where Newt can make a run at Romney. The rest of the south could vote either one in (most likely -oddly - the Catholic Newt not the Mormon Mitt) but they probably won't.
But they might. Of course, Newt can't can't get his a$$ wiping organized enough to get himself on the ballot in Virginia which is hilarious.

January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus) – Results

January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary) – Results

January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary) – Results

January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)

February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)

February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)

February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus)
Minnesota (caucus)
Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri

February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)
Michigan (primary)

March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)

March 6, 2012
(Super Tuesday) Alaska (caucus)
Georgia (primary)
Idaho (caucus)
Massachusetts (primary)
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio (primary)
Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary)
Vermont (primary)
Virginia (primary)

March 6-10, 2012 Wyoming (caucus)

March 10, 2012 Kansas (caucus)
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)

March 13, 2012 Alabama (primary)
Hawaii (caucus)
Mississippi (primary)

March 17, 2012 Missouri (GOP caucus) – *See note below on Missouri

March 18, 2012 Puerto Rico (primary)
March 20, 2012 Illinois (primary)

March 24, 2012 Louisiana (primary)

April 3, 2012 District of Columbia (primary)
Maryland (primary)
Wisconsin (primary)
Texas (primary)

April 24, 2012 Connecticut (primary)
Delaware (primary)
New York (primary)
Pennsylvania (primary)
Rhode Island (primary)

May 8, 2012 Indiana (primary)
North Carolina (primary)
West Virginia (primary)

May 15, 2012 Nebraska (primary)
Oregon (primary)

May 22, 2012 Arkansas (primary)
Kentucky (primary)

June 5, 2012 California (primary)
Montana (primary)
New Jersey (primary)
New Mexico (primary)
South Dakota (primary)

June 26, 2012 Utah (primary)

[joshcryer]

17. Newt could do a write in campaign in Virginia. Make his name "Newt G."

It worked in Alaska with Lisa Murkowski's win. She had people writing in "Lisa M."

[underpants]

19. No write ins allowed in the Va primary

sorry NEwt - gues you should have had an actual campaign

[joshcryer]

20. Oh wow, epic fail, thanks for the correction.

[Thrill]

12. I think Newt

Will really start ripping him now. I like his chances to beat Mittens

[Logical]

15. I don't know, think his negatives are too large.

[RBInMaine]

13. The R base doesn't like Romney for several reasons. If Newt can stay well-enough financed, he can

beat Mittens in FL. If THAT happens, Mittens is TOAST. FL is where it gets seriously interesting. But so much of it comes down to money. Newt has to be able to finance the organization needed to win in a huge state like FL, and Mittens has the cash. Also, if Santorum and Grampy Paul stay in hard, it could continue to divide the R base which helps Mittens. I can say this. Romney will go scorched Earth on Newt, and Newt, unlike in Iowa, will go scorched Earth right back and harder. GET READY FOR A RUMBLE. GONNA BE FUN.

[Yavin4]

18. The First Rule of GOP Fight Club...

Is to lay it all out before the public.

[mfcorey1]

22. Be careful in dismissing him. He is toxic and many people like that. nt