Reports of Thwaites Glacier breaking free

[Mr.WeRP]

I’ll post to the discussion on Reddit. Original link is on X. If this is true, it will be the story of the year.

https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/s/89P4mKxnW3

From the original post:

A new crack runs just through the iceberg group that is attached to anchor point 6.
This is a very important subsea elevation, which served as an anchor for the central drifting iceberg train.
There is no stopping it, now that the eastern & western anchor points have also failed

Posted on X by Kris Van Steenbergen

[2naSalit]

1. No doubt!

Thanks for posting!

[BoRaGard]

2. G.O.P.: "We firmly believe climate change is fake (smirk, smirk). We refuse to acknowledge reality."

the republicon lies about climate change are a G.O.P. betrayal of all the children everywhere...

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. Since that was posted 5 days to Reddit, and it doesn't look like there's been expert reaction since

I suspect it isn't major.

[GemDigger]

4. There was a lot of reporting on it in 2024.

It isn't major as to the right here, right now but it is real.

[Mr.WeRP]

5. The "news" media is reactionary. They need an active disaster to cover

This is a disaster, but its impact is not immediate. Once the glaciers behind it start melting and flowing to the ocean, the impacts will be seen around the globe (more so in the Northern hemisphere, ironically, due to the way the moon’s gravity interacts with the distribution of water on the planet). The other reason this is significant is that, while we could see this coming, scientists and models did not predict it happening this soon.

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. I don't mean the news. I mean experts.

For instance, nothing on DU's Environment and Energy group, and posters there are brilliant at picking up science, not just from the media. And nothing about it on the RealClimate blog, either as a separate post, or in the "Unforced Variations" chat for January: https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2025/01/unforced-variations-jan-2025/

If there is something beyond an anonymous interpretation on Reddit, then it's worth someone posting it.

[Mr.WeRP]

8. This seems to be predicting this event. It was posted a month ago

https://thwaitesglacier.org/news/thwaites-eastern-ice-shelf-cracks-spread-not-because-melting

[scipan]

9. Some text

recent study by a team of researchers from the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) has found that the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf – the last floating extension of Thwaites into the ocean - is rapidly destabilising due to widening cracks, not melting from below as previously thought.

Since 2016, cracks, or "rifts," in the ice shelf have been rapidly spreading and deepening, especially during the Southern Hemisphere’s spring season (Sep-Nov). These rifts have sped up the ice shelf’s movement by about 70%, with the central part now moving nearly three metres a day, compared to just under two metres a day in 2019. This acceleration also affected the structural integrity of the ice shelf, and since 2020 has contributed to the formation of large gaps filled with icy debris. Additionally, recent loss of sea ice around the ice shelf has allowed part of its western edge to detach from its main anchoring point on the seafloor.

Sensors placed along the ice for the study, which was published in September 2024 in the Journal of Glaciology, have shown that despite warming ocean waters, melting beneath the shelf is surprisingly low. This is likely because there’s a layer of buoyant freshwater below the ice that keeps warm ocean water from directly melting the ice from underneath.

What these findings as well as further computer modelling suggests is that, while warm ocean waters are preconditioning ice loss in West Antarctica, it is the ongoing internal destabilisation that now poses the greatest threat to the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. The ice shelf is in its final phase of disintegration as these cracks grow, independent of melting from below.

Lead author of the study, Dr Christian Wild from Oregon State University says:

“We anticipated that the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf would break up within the next decade, but never so quickly – it’s like watching the final act of a disaster unfolding.”

[ananda]

7. Here is a site that looks trustworthy and excellent.

https://thwaitesglacier.org/about/facts

6. If Thwaites Glacier was to collapse entirely, global sea levels would increase by 65 cm (25 in) (Source: Bedmachine, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0510-8#Sec7, gives total volume 483,000 km3; volume above flotation 258,000 km3, and sea level equivalent, 65 cm.)

7. Thwaites Glacier ice loss currently contributes around 4% of all global sea-level rise (assuming 3.5 mm annual sea-level rise) and has the potential to contribute significantly more. (Source: Bedmachine https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0510-8#Sec7)

8. If Thwaites Glacier continues to accelerate, retreat, and widen at rates consistent with recent changes, it could contribute several cm to sea-level rise by the end of the century. Collapse of the glacier would require a few centuries. (Calculation: 100-km wide front, ~1000 meters thick, 5km/yr, 50 years = ~7 cm)


Ice loss from Thwaites Glacier is significant and increasing

9. Annually Thwaites is losing about 50 billion tons of ice more than it is receiving in snowfall. (Source and calculation: https://data1.geo.tu-dresden.de/ais_gmb/ Over the 14 year period of 2002–2016, Basin AIS21, which is slightly larger than just TG, has lost 748 Gt, equating to 2.07 mm of global sea level compared to a current rate of global sea level rise of 3.2 mma-1=4.6%. 50 billion tonnes assumes 4% of 3.5 mm annual sea-level rise.)

10. Since 2000, the glacier has had a net loss of more than 1000 billion tons of ice. (Source and calculation https://data1.geo.tu-dresden.de/ais_gmb/ Over the period 2002–2016 (14 years), Basin AIS21, which is slightly larger than just TG, has lost a total of 748 Gt. Assuming the last 4 years lost ice at the same rate gives a total of 1068 Gt.)

11. The amount of ice loss has doubled over the last 30 years by Thwaites and its neighbouring glaciers.