Does anyone in D.U. have any numbers on the chances of a random home invasion?

[busterbrown]

It seems that in the past few days this by far and away has been the major
concern of all gun owners. I mean really. I have been all over net and this
is practically all I hear!

[Cleita]

1. Try some police oriented websites. They might have some stats. n/t

[graham4anything]

2. I would say getting hit by lightning about 100 times is more likely in America

unless of course the NRA folk leave their door open with a sign saying
free drugs inside and lie in wait
(sarcasm (I think)

[jberryhill]

3. Me? About three or four on a good weekend.

[jmg257]

4. Does it really matter? All it takes is the notion that it COULD happen to convince

plenty of gun owners that they are better/best prepared being armed.

[busterbrown]

6. I agree, but I’d love to have the facts. Even though they don’t believe in them. n/t

[onehandle]

5. If you look at RKBA forums, it seems to be a massive epidemic.

Often into the homes of RKBA fans, with no witnesses or evidence.

Or just hearsay about 'a buddy.'

[Walk away]

7. Neither I or anyone I have know has ever been the victim of a home invasion.

I don't know the real odds but I have lived in cities and the boondocks and I have never needed a gun. I don't expect I ever will.

[Amak8]

8. The FBI doesn't keep statistics.

Home security system companies will give an outrageous number for obvious reasons.

[randome]

9. It might be easier to compile statistics on the chances of a home invasion in the movies.

It seems to happen much more frequently than in real life.

[HooptieWagon]

10. One happened a couple blocks from my house a few weeks ago.

A couple felons fleeing police who burst into a family's home. It was truely random, and doesn't make me any more afraid. Random invasions are pretty rare. I think targeted invasions are more common, where the perpetrators know in advance there's valubles (cash, guns, expensive jewelry, drugs) in the house.
The NRA overhypes the chances of home invasion, and of the homeowners ability (and luck) to fight back, as part of a fear-based marketing and political plan.

[X_Digger]

11. Here are some numbers, but not specific to home invasion..

According to the DOJ's BJS, the rate of being the victim of a violent crime is 20 / 1,000 overall (as high as 27 / 1,000 for some groups like african americans) in the last couple of years that data has been collected. That comes out to 1 in 50.

http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=dcdetail&iid=245

[busterbrown]

13. A Violent crime could be classified as an assault without weapons and when talking about

someone invading your house you’re numbers which might be true or not
even in the same ball park.....

[X_Digger]

14. Right, hence my caveat..

There is no specific crime designation for 'home invasion' in many jurisdictions, so it's not easily tracked.

[busterbrown]

16. Reply number 12 helps a lot. Don’t you think?

[X_Digger]

20. A sucessful home invasion may be listed as assault, rape, homicide..

Depending on the severity.

Another point to consider is that the NCVS (National Crime Victim Survey) is conducted by interviewing people, not law enforcement.

So things like NYC's intentionally downgrading crimes to make the numbers look good (see the Village Voice's series on the Schoolcraft Tapes) would lead to some disparity.

[Spider Jerusalem]

12. 2009 data for burglary from the FBI

http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/property_crime/burglary.html

FBI defines burglary as "unlawful entry of premises for commission of a felony or theft". Total rate is 726 per 100k population, 2.5 million burglary offences for the relevant period. 924 per 100K in cities with populations of 250K and over; 688 per 100K in cities with populations of 1 million and over; 1166 per 100K in cities with populations of 500K-999,999; 1062 per 100K in cities with populations of 250K-499,999; 945 per 100K, areas with populations of 100K-249,999; down to a low of 560 per 100K in "non-metropolitan counties" (ie rural areas).

Robbery (use of force and threat of violence to steal property, which is probably going to cover home invasions, although those stats aren't separate): 100 per 100K in areas of 100k and over population; 23.9 per 100K in areas of 25K-99,999 population; 47 per 100K in areas under 25K populations. For non-metropolitan counties that falls to a low of ten per 100K.

http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/data/table_18.html

So the odds range from one in a thousand at their highest to one in ten thousand at their lowest. (For comparison, the odds for an American being in a fatal car crash are about one in six hundred.)

[busterbrown]

15. Ah, thats what I thought.... Thanks for your info....a lot

[The Magistrate]

22. And Even That, Sir, Needs Further Consideration

Most burglaries are committed while a premises is un-occupied, and most robberies occur outside the victim's residence.

[UTUSN]

17. "Random"? They're usually very targeted, zeroing in on fellow drug traffickers or cash n/t

[TheCowsCameHome]

18. Is home invasion the new term for burglary?

[ManiacJoe]

26. No, it is a method of entering the house.

Multiple intruders violently enter the house, violently take control of the occupants, then do whatever criminal acts they originally intended, usually robbery at the start.

[Vox Moi]

19. Home Invasion Scenarios?

The solid-core doors are locked and dead-bolted.
First floor windows are shatter-resistant either by design or anti-shatter film.
Now what?
Is some home invader going to set up a siege or try a battering ram?
I would like to see some statistics on home invasions but I am certain that with some minimal precautions a home can become a very difficult target.
Probably would cost the typical home owner about the same as a good pistol and a few hundred rounds.
Safer, too.

If the question is 'how can I make my home safer', the answer might well be 'stronger doors'.

[TheMoreYouKnow]

23. Even the best consumer level solid core door

Can't handle a solid kick from an adult, typically the door frame holding the dead bolt strike plate will fail long before the door does. Unless you've got steel reinforced door frames you've got nothing but a false sense of security.

[Amak8]

27. You're probably much more likely to die from a fire.

[Lizzie Poppet]

21. It's going to be hard to find anything conclusive.

I looked into this a while back, and while "home invasion" is a statistically tracked category in the UK, it's not in the US. Any such crime would be lumped in with either assaults, robberies, or burglaries, for the most part (with a good few criminal trespass cases thrown in for good measure). There's no easy way to differentiate without looking at hundreds of thousands, if not millions of individual records.

[MineralMan]

24. Very low. OTOH,

I had a drunk guy try to break down my kitchen door at 2 A. M. a couple of years ago. The nice police officers took him home. He was on the wrong block, it seemed. Right address; wrong block. I told him that through the door, but he kept trying to kick it in. I did go get my shotgun, just in case, until the cops arrived, but he soon passed out on my back porch. It was in December, so it was around 15 degrees, too.

Not a home invasion, but the guy was stupid drunk. Fortunately, I have reinforced deadbolts and steel shell doors.

That's the second time in 30 years that a drunk has insisted he be let into my house, after losing his way after closing time.

[cordelia]

25. I personally know of one person who has been a victim

of a home invasion.

A little over 2 weeks ago, 3 men broke into her home and robbed her at gunpoint.

She said that during the ordeal she was asked repeatedly "where are your guns?"

She said that she doesn't own any guns, and even if she did she doubted she would have had presence of mind to use one.

Anecdotal, but it's all I have.

[busterbrown]

29. I also wonder how much the number of invasions diminish based on the fact

that many of these invasions are based on known facts about the house..
Drug deals, workers of house owners, contracts etc....I bet you it diminishes
the number by 50%. At least!

Ramdom invasions by people looking to make some money. My guess, very few...

[Glassunion]

28. "Home Invasion" is not a technical term

It is a word invented by the media.

The DOJ does not keep statistics on Home Invasions, there are only cursory numbers of occupied burglaries/robberies.

Generally a home invasion would be lumped into the robbery category and burglary would be an unoccupied home being broken into and reported as such.

[kestrel91316]

30. They are very rare.

[slackmaster]

31. Slim to none

And Slim just took the last stagecoach out of town.

[pscot]

32. I've heard of 1 in the Seattle region

in about the last 10 years. If you're dealing meth or crack the odds go up, but you're probably already heavily armed.