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Septua

(2,950 posts)
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 08:58 PM Oct 18

Statistical significance of 6 million "No Kings" protesters.

From Google AI:

Significance in terms of the "3.5% rule"

A common benchmark for mass movements is the "3.5% rule," first researched by Erica Chenoweth. This descriptive statistic suggests that no government has withstood a challenge from 3.5% of its population mobilized in peaceful protest.

Here is how the numbers from the "No Kings" protests compare to this benchmark:

• In the U.S., 3.5% of the population is equivalent to about 12 million people.

• The estimated turnout of 4 to 6 million participants in the June 2025 rallies represents 1.2% to 1.8% of the U.S. population.

• While a significant show of force, the protest falls short of the 12 million person threshold often cited as a benchmark for inevitable change. However, Chenoweth has noted that many movements have succeeded with even less participation.

• A larger protest does not guarantee political change, which depends on factors like momentum, organization, and leadership.


The 6 million may not be considered enough to "effect a political change" but I'll wager it's significant enough to piss off Trump...
11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Statistical significance of 6 million "No Kings" protesters. (Original Post) Septua Oct 18 OP
Do we have JBTaurus83 Oct 18 #1
I misread my OP data Septua Oct 19 #6
Expect him to invade Ethiopia soon, to distract from this and EPSTEIN. usonian Oct 18 #2
Even Erica Chenoweth gave qualifiers 303squadron Oct 18 #3
Already preparing for the next one! librechik Oct 18 #4
in chicago, it's estimated at almost 10% of the population. mopinko Oct 18 #5
The true purpose of No Kings isn't affecting change today WarGamer Oct 19 #7
Party pooper here gulliver Oct 19 #8
I disagree with "completely insignificant." Septua Oct 19 #9
I hope I'm wrong gulliver Oct 19 #10
I hope you're wrong too... Septua Oct 19 #11

JBTaurus83

(851 posts)
1. Do we have
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 09:14 PM
Oct 18

Any credible numbers yet? I saw someone report that here in Philly where I attended there were only 15,000. I can tell you that way more than that can fit around Independence Hall and the place was packed with a long march from City Hall.

usonian

(23,402 posts)
2. Expect him to invade Ethiopia soon, to distract from this and EPSTEIN.
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 09:20 PM
Oct 18

He's not a deep thinker, a copycat fascist.

The "Before" photo.

FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT!



You've seen the "After" photo. I don't post it here.

He had his Epstein moment.

303squadron

(768 posts)
3. Even Erica Chenoweth gave qualifiers
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 09:24 PM
Oct 18

We’re talking here about an ongoing, well-organized campaign with a clear goal that shifts among various tactics as needed. – Chenoweth, 2021

In other words, it can’t just be one event. It has to be ongoing.

mopinko

(73,273 posts)
5. in chicago, it's estimated at almost 10% of the population.
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 09:45 PM
Oct 18

200-250k is what cbs said. 2.7 m population.
the line of ppl was 2 miles long.
we’re pissed here. wait til the goons start showing up in more towns.

WarGamer

(18,229 posts)
7. The true purpose of No Kings isn't affecting change today
Sun Oct 19, 2025, 11:40 AM
Oct 19

It's mobilizing, motivating and energizing VOTERS for 2026 and 2028.

Trump will be in office for 3 years and 3 months more... no way around that.

But he can be effectively stymied in January, 2027 with a good election in 2026.

gulliver

(13,702 posts)
8. Party pooper here
Sun Oct 19, 2025, 11:57 AM
Oct 19

The protest is completely insignificant, if not a backfire. It's face time, some venting, some humor (the most effective part) and copious quantities of oxytocin in the air. But it will be forgotten by Wednesday.

A protest might mean something practically and politically if you could get some sort of metric about the protesters. I'm not sure we have the technology for that yet. To win elections solidly, I think the Democratic Party would want to see a representation metric (for the protest) of true voters who care about true issues and what those issues are. That would be how you would judge the protest statistically in my opinion. Raw counts don't matter.





Septua

(2,950 posts)
9. I disagree with "completely insignificant."
Sun Oct 19, 2025, 12:35 PM
Oct 19

Google AI statement:

According to protest organizers and recent reports, the "No Kings" protests held nationwide on Saturday, October 18, 2025, attracted nearly 7 million people, which organizers claim makes it possibly the largest single-day mobilization against a U.S. president in modern history. The rallies demonstrated against Donald Trump's administration and policies across more than 2,700 events in all 50 states and overseas.


That's not some kind of statistic Trump wants to own, leading to more shooting-himself-in-the-foot propaganda.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/mmx6kBiMycg

gulliver

(13,702 posts)
10. I hope I'm wrong
Sun Oct 19, 2025, 12:51 PM
Oct 19

I think it will be forgotten by Wednesday. For now, Trump is playing the protest as a foil and a straight man to his ends. It would be vastly different if we weren't in the ubiquitous media world of today. A huge protest of this kind back in the '70s would have meant a lot. Now it just looks like a flash mob put together from phone apps.

I don't think it should have been titled "No Kings." To me, it is a misfire, not unlike "No Oligarchs." Too clever by half, so the sentiment loses its emotional punch. The sentiment for today, in a world where no one has heard of a tyrannical king and few fully appreciate the complex system of oligarchy, is "no dictators."

I'm being critical. A lot of people did a lot of work. I know people who went. More power to them.

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