I am concerned for Malaise and the people of Jamaica.

[surfered]

The GFS Model takes Melissa east of Jamaica and over Hispaniola.

However, the generally more accurate European Model takes Melissa directly over Jamaica, where it hovers for 3-4 days!

That same Model forecasts 90+ MPH winds; however, the NHC forecasts Melissa to become a major hurricane.

This event could bring catastrophic wind snd flooding damage to Jamaica 🙏 .

[AllaN01Bear]

1. ditto.

[hlthe2b]

2. May all come through unscathed.

[calimary]

46. Indeed!

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Dr. Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits is my go-to guy for tropical cyclones - his latest

I would think with it sitting and spinning in the area (its forward movement has been around 2 mph, so almost stationary), it would cause upwelling of (relatively) colder water. Its intensity has dropped a bit from earlier - at least for now. It doesn't seem to have much around it to steer it.

[surfered]

10. I've been using Tropical Tidbits for several years, but was unaware of Dr Cowan. How do I find him on their website?

[BumRushDaShow]

19. Levi is amazing guy - he was the creator of the site

Just his voice alone and how he describes stuff, is just fascinating!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/about/

[surfered]

28. Thanks for that. That information is very important to me during "Hurricane Season," especially when away from home.

[BumRushDaShow]

32. I sub to Pivotal Weather for models

but I use Tropical Tidbits for their Aircraft Recon monitoring and data plots when the Hurricane Hunter planes release their dropsondes!

[Trueblue Texan]

18. Maybe Melissa will meander over to Mar-a-Lardo? nt

[BumRushDaShow]

20. They tend to get "home grown" storms around there

They are overdue for one on the SE coast.

[ancianita]

34. Yeah, this looks pretty bad. Thanks.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/232050.shtml?mltoa34#contents

[SheltieLover]

4. Stay safe, Malaise & All!

[yellow dahlia]

45. I second that emotion.

[calimary]

47. Third'ed.

Last edited Fri Oct 24, 2025, 12:09 AM - Edit history (1)

Stay safe, Malaise! And please let us know when you’re out of danger.

[Johonny]

5. The further west it moves, the hotter the water

The more likely it becomes a cat 4 or 5 with the Eastern side of the storm battering Jamaica 😱

[Totally Tunsie]

6. Sending all good wishes to malaise and all her Jamaican neighbors.

[JMCKUSICK]

7. I pray the forecast that has it missing is correct, God Speed

[wordstroken]

8. Please, please be safe, Malaise -- and everyone nearby.

🦋 wordstroken

[mountain grammy]

9. Be safe Malaise!

and everyone in Jamaica! I hope it misses..

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

11. ..

[Bayard]

12. Stay safe, Malaise

And please check in,

[livetohike]

13. Positive vibes for malaise and the people of Jamaica.

Hopefully, the predictions will be wrong.

[Dustlawyer]

14. We're here for you Malaise

During hurricane Harvey Malaise was there for me when we got 67 inches of rain in 3 days. Felt like Noah without a boat. Hopefully the storm will speed up.

[malaise]

25. So good to see you

We’ve experienced enough of these my friend😀

[ornotna]

42. We'll be here when you come out the other side.

Best wishes.

[Emile]

15. "Stay safe Malaise and remember, we're thinking of you." "

[milestogo]

16. Stay safe, Malaise!

[BComplex]

17. Stay safe, Malaise!!

I hope you and your entire island family stay safe!!

[BaronChocula]

21. Posted from Malaise earlier

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=20743929

[Liberal In Texas]

22. Keeping our fingers crossed for you Malaise!

[Warpy]

23. I'm a little more concerned for the people of Hispanola

if the storm is moving right over them.

[malaise]

26. They are dealing with serious rain but won't get tge worst of it

for a change

[malaise]

24. Thanks all

Prepared, waiting and watching. Tge real shit should start tomorrow.
The real problem here is serious rain for close to two days.
Looking forward to saying PHEW😀

[Emile]

29. Do you lots of water and supplies in the case you lose power?

[malaise]

30. All ready

😀

[babylonsister]

41. Hey! I am thinking about you and Jamaica.

I know you know how to hunker down.

[Lochloosa]

49. Stay dry malaise....I knew you would be fine from past storms.

There's some serious rain coming though.

[Deuxcents]

27. Gotta hope it speeds up because as slow as it is now is not good.. batten down the hatches, Friend 💦

[yardwork]

31. I hope everyone stays safe.

[applegrove]

33. Vibes to all in her path.

[Clouds Passing]

35. 🙏🏼

[True Dough]

36. Some meteorologists are predicting

30 or more inches of rain for much of Jamaica.

YIKES!

I wish your cup to overfloweth, malaise, but not by that much.

Take good care!

[ananda]

37. After looking at Zoom Earth...

I'd say that Jamaica is definitely in trouble.

Good vibes to Malaise and all the people there.

[HeartsCanHope]

38. Will be thinking of Malaise and all the people effected in Jamaica.

Stay safe, Malaise!

[Skittles]

39. we are here for you malaise

stay safe and keep us updated as you can!

[B.See]

40. Sending best wishes to Malaise

and her loved ones as well.

Re. go-tos for tropical weather, my fav is Mike's Weather Page at spaghettimodels.com

Stay safe, Malaise.

[hamsterjill]

43. I know Malaise will be as prepared as possible.

Sending my prayers as is my practice. May all be safe.

[electric_blue68]

44. Chant: Go Faster, Go Faster!! Good Luck malaise, your peeps & Jamaica!

[gademocrat7]

48. Take care, Malaise

Stay safe.

[Raftergirl]

50. Stay safe Malaise and hope you are able check in if/when you can during the storm.

[wendyb-NC]

51. Yes, indeed

Be safe all in the storm's path, you also malaise.

[justaprogressive]

52. This model

doesn't look good! (from NOAA)

[malaise]

53. The really good news isthat it isgoing to be further south of Jamaica

before it turns north-east.
The bad news is they say major hurricane south of us and then it turns north east with the dirty side devastating everywhere to the right .
The lines in the supermarkets are unbearable.
Will be a hurricane tomorrow and a major hurricane on Sunday.

I’ll check in if and when I can but I suspect that we’ll have.
Neither power or internet services from sometime tomorrow.
We’ll see.

Thanks for all the good thoughts DUers

[justaprogressive]

54. thinking of you

mon.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

55. Stay safe Malaise and let us know that you're ok when you can.

Thoughts and prayers for you, family and citizens of Jamaica and the whole region.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

57. It looks like it may turn north and maybe hammer the west end

Folks in Negril better hang onto their umbrellas.

Best of luck, Malaise!

[FemDemERA]

56. Take care Malaise

Hoping all in the path stay safe.

[debm55]

58. Be safe malaise and the people of Jamaica.