Out of all of this....Canada could lose

[Melon]

With the overthrow of Venezuela Maduro, the US will bring in assets from the big oil companies to get production back. Despite having the largest reserves, they pump less than 1 million barrels a day of oil. 1% of the global supply. Their infrastructure was poorly managed and wells allowed to decay.

Canada has been looking for different homes for its high sulfur oil, but most global processing exists in the US as it was built for Venezuela and Canadian low quality oil. One of the last motivations of the US to utilize Canadian oil was to max out facilities designed for this oil.

With Venezuela capacity likely to come back online, low cost/high sulfur oil will be back headed to the US, and will likely displace Canadian oil without further reductions below market. This is a further kick to Carney and his inability to lock in a trade deal for oil, and will likely further handicap the Canadian economy.

[applegrove]

1. I thought that a few weeks ago. Trump could use this reality

to bully Canada. He should watch out or it may result in a pipeline through Eastern Canada to ocean terminals in the Atlantic there. Quebecers so far have resisted a pipeline but they are nothing if not practical survivors and they'll feel sorry for Alberta. They know Trump will privatize Hydro Quebec and destroy their language laws if Trump gets ahold of Canada. It will be penury for all of us in Canada. Nothing to look forward to. Quebecers were the best Liberal supporters when Carney ran against Trump this past spring. Not much gets by them.

[Melon]

3. I believe Canada has already missed that boat

There isn’t a downfall to the US if Canada builds a pipeline East if Venezuela oil is available.

The “lock” to US dependence was the keystone pipeline which doesn’t exist.

Canada oil is discounted already due to its quality and low number of refineries for their oil. Canada’s best option was the US and they’ll continue to have to ship it south. With transportation, they will lose additional margin by shipping offshore. The high sulfur crude will be additionally discounted once Venezuelan oil becomes available.

[applegrove]

4. The goal of the East coast pipeline is to sell to Europe. We may have to refine it ourselves more often.

Last edited Sun Jan 4, 2026, 12:18 AM - Edit history (2)

[John1956PA]

2. Many dishes are going to get broken before this bull's run through the china shop is complete.

[BoycottTwitter]

5. We really need to move away from fossil fuels.

Fossil fuel companies support Republicans and support far-right extremists governments world-wide. The solution is to make renewable energy an unstoppable force. The way Canada can pivot from the loss of oil revenue is to start selling as much as possible related to renewable energy and become a leader. Since the US is pulling away from this it could be Canada's time to shine.

[Melon]

6. Sell what exactly? Renewable for Canada is electricity

Their only customer is the US and it’s not much. It surely can’t replace oil revenue. It’s an economic issue for exports for Canada. Renewable is good for their energy reliance, not export revenue.

[BoycottTwitter]

8. Sell Hardware

They could manufacture solar panels, inverters, batteries, wires, connectors, wind turbines, and lots more. They could also make EVs, heat pumps. Electrification has economic benefits and helps save the planet too.

[Melon]

12. Canada doesn't have a car brand.

All of that is great but it simply won’t happen for export revenue. Canada is losing car manufacturing back to the US. They don’t have a domestic brand. I’m not sure about batteries but they aren’t aligned with Tesla and BYD manufacturers batteries in China. Solar panels are made in China. You need low cost manufacturing to export in quantity and that would require competing with China capacity. Green energy wind farms are for domestic power, but it’s usually not cheaper power and not for export. They still need to maximize oil revenue.

[lame54]

7. Assuming no pushback from Venezuelans

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. The Canadian economy is doing better than the US

TSX gains higher than DJ, inflation lower, unemployment comparable, and nobody’s healthcare premiums are tripling this month.

But, hey, if this results in shutting down the tar sands and retraining the workers to build wind farms, it’s a win/win.

[Melon]

11. I believe Canada just lost a major piece of leverage with oil.

With real GDP growth in Canada largely stagnant, it’s not doing better…I question the metrics. I don’t want Canada to worsen anymore than the US to fail. My background includes international oil…so I’m just observing and commenting. You can’t export wind farms, and electricity exports to the US are likely capped in size. Canada needs GDP growth which is what exporting oil provides.

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Carney is already shifting trade from the US to China and the EU

And that includes oil.

Stagnant GDP under the current trade war is actually a good sign - most economists were certain Canada would be in a deep recession by now,

I live in BC, and have shopped in the US many times over the past year.

Prices are higher in the US.

Gas has dropped 7-8 cents a litre here in the past 10 days.

[Melon]

16. That's the point...

I am only speaking to oil. The net back to exporting oil to China or EU is lower than the return selling it to the US. Canada nets less money. That’s with what volume they can get to a port. China buys Russian and Iranian oil at a substantial discount to Brent already.

The Canada economy is not better, especially when the take away is that although it’s .o4% for a decade…you thought it would be negative.

I’ve really not been in Canada for a year. My impression was that things were more expensive, maybe less so with the exchange rate. Gasoline was way more expensive(30% ish) than the states. On a gallon bases over a dollar more.

I hope Canada is able to secure export deals that will allow them to export profitably enough to cover budgets. I’m pointing to risk. I have meetings in the morning that have been called that will likely include this subject.

[harumph]

18. The wamer the artic circle becomes, the better for Canada.

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. The dollar has collapsed against the loonie in the past year

Your hypothesis on the risks to the Canadian oil exports seems to depend on Venezuelan oil ramping up output rapidly, but all reports I’ve seen suggest it could take the better part of a decade to get production back to its former capacity.

A box of Kellogg’s mini wheats costs $CAD6.98 (about $5.00US) that same box of mini wheats costs US$6.98 (about $9.00CAD). Beef is expensive here, but it’s nuts in the US.

The economic future seems uncertain worldwide right now, I guess we’ll see how the markets react tomorrow.

[Kennah]

10. Estimates are over $100 billion to Venezuelan oil infrastructure to get the oil pumping

[NickB79]

14. And that's over a decade of investment

And assumes there won't be an active guerilla war blowing shit up and killing contractors.

Trump will be long dead before more Venezuelan oil flows.

[Kennah]

15. Don't tease me with a good time

[Melon]

17. Right. Hugely expensive.

But that’s to get to a realistic potential, say 3-4 million barrels a day. They used to do 3 million decades ago. They should be able to double current output within a few years. Then big dollars for growth.