I'm a Minneapolis sociologist who studies violence. Here's how ICE observers are helping. (MS NOW)

[highplainsdem]

For @msnownews.bsky.social, I wrote an article about how ICE Watch is grounded in sociological theories of violence prevention.

The reality is that most men will only commit public violence in extremely specific scenarios and ICE Watch disrupts the conditions necessary for escalation.

— Nicole Bedera (@nbedera.bsky.social) 2026-01-16T18:55:36.538Z

https://www.ms.now/opinion/minneapolis-ice-watch-protesters-violence-research

-snip-

ICE Watch works because it surrounds men seeking approval with people loudly expressing their disapproval. And the noise has the added benefit of drawing large crowds of bystanders who can quickly outnumber the ICE agents, who then have to decide if they want to escalate a situation or perhaps abandon their activity altogether.

In Minneapolis, we’re already seeing the success of ICE Watch. There are countless videos from ICE Watch observers that show agents leaving without detaining anyone after they encounter resistance. There are currently about 3,000 ICE agents in Minnesota, but the Department of Homeland Security claims they have only arrested 2,400 people — less than one person per agent.

ICE Watch organizers have also observed that it takes many more agents to make a single arrest when they are around. In other cities, ICE traveled in groups of two or three, but in Minneapolis, we primarily see groups of 6 to 12 agents. The Department of Homeland Security has pulled agents from other cities to ramp up efforts in Minnesota, which guarantees there will be fewer deportations from the places they left. Plus, ICE’s fixation on breaking up ICE Watch groups and detaining observers — often white citizens — has interrupted its original mission.

-snip-

It can be hard to see the success of prevention efforts because we can’t see inside the minds of people who changed their behavior. But there are signs that ICE Watch is successfully de-escalating violence in the Twin Cities. That also means ICE Watch is a whole lot safer for observers and the broader community than it might have seemed the first time you saw a video full of bystanders with whistles.

[Ocelot II]

1. Very interesting!

So ICE agents are mostly insecure men who seek the approval of other men by being (or seeming) tough beyond accepted limits. "Look at me, I'm a real man!" But that pathetic small-wiener energy can be dissipated by showing disapproval: No, you're not a real man; you're doing awful things that no decent person would sanction and all you're doing is proving you're fearful and weak, and that either your dick is very small or you're afraid it is.

[SheltieLover]

2. Kick

[haele]

3. Not only that, it's a group fighting back against bullies.

It's really easy for 2 to 6 ICE souper-troopers to separate out a target or two to take in for a bounty if everyone just looks away - like hyenas separating the slower or sicker gazelle from the herd - but when the crowd turns on them taunting and making a lot of noise, they dither about and quickly leave.
They can't stand attention.

[erronis]

4. We are not going to go quietly into the night.

They are going to have to commit mass arrests and atrocities against all of us to achieve their neo-xian fantasies.

[OGBuzz]

5. Wasn't there supposed to be insurance against this very thing?

Hey NRA, what happened? Don't you exist to safeguard against a tyrannical government? Don't you know that a King cannot tolerate his subjects being in possession of 100's of millions of weapons and trillions of rounds of ammunition? Do you really think that ICE, CBP and DHS agents resemble a modern day army just to chase down and brutalise unarmed civilians? No brothers, the King is coming for your guns, soon, this is just the dress rehearsal. And you're next. It was never going to be Obama or Biden, it will be King Donald who will come for your guns 'the easy way or the hard way'.

[caraher]

9. Gotta add the meme...

[debsy]

6. The article offers some hope

Thanks for posting!

[jmbar2]

7. Excellent article - thanks

Gratitude to all the folks out there in freezing weather standing up to the goons.

[caraher]

8. "Only" 2400 arrested?

There are currently about 3,000 ICE agents in Minnesota, but the Department of Homeland Security claims they have only arrested 2,400 people — less than one person per agent.

I appreciate the illustration of how inefficient/wasteful this "surge" is compared to the stated goals. At the same time... 2400 arrests, mainly of people with legal status, mainly because of racist whims of Proud Boys playing at being cops or soldiers or something - that's a lot of lives disrupted.

[irisblue]

10. This bit jumped out at me. Toxic masculinity in action

..."This is especially true among men who use violence to affirm their masculinity.

Research on gender is particularly relevant for understanding ICE, which has an overwhelmingly male workforce and uses messages of masculinity and domination in its recruitment materials. A lot of men may be joining ICE because they think it will allow them to bond with other men and gain power in our society."

[FakeNoose]

11. Filming them and posting the videos on social media has immediate impact

They know they're going to be seen and perhaps identified when everyone sees the videos.

And yes, drawing crowds will make them realize they are quickly outnumbered.

Hopefully this will all be over SOON!

[flashman13]

12. I think that there is clear evidence that large crowds that form rapidly can completely stall ICE raids.

It seems like when ICE roughs people up, it's always where it's 1 to 6 on 1. They are willing to be aggressive under those conditions. But when the numbers turn against them, their tough guy bravado disappears.