It's been 14 years since a sitting US Senator lost their primary

[Polybius]

That was when Richard Lugar was defeated in the 2012 Republican primary by Richard Mourdock. Technically, Luther Strange lost the special election primary to Roy Moore in 2017, but he was recently appointed. Joe Lieberman was the last Democrat to lose his primary (in the 2006 Democratic primary, which he lost to to Ned Lamont).

So, why am I talking about this? Because it's gonna happen again next Tuesday (March 3rd). John Cornyn is going to lose to Ken Paxton. Should be an interesting campaign to say the least.

[Renew Deal]

1. Won't count until the runoff

Which is after next week

[yellowdogintexas]

2. Runoff is the day after Memorial Day. there is a school of thought which predicts Cornyn

will not make the runoff. One candidate has to get 51% of the vote to avoid a primary, otherwise the top two will compete in the runoff. It is going to be interesting.

[Renew Deal]

3. Are there any polls showing Cornyn in danger of finishing 3rd?

I haven't seen anything like that.

[yellowdogintexas]

5. I have not seen details of polls (which doesn't mean there aren't any)

but the YouTube folks are projecting that he will in face have to really scramble to make second.

[Polybius]

10. Yes, but it's from February 5th

https://nypost.com/2026/02/05/us-news/texas-republican-senate-primary-locked-in-three-way-statistical-tie-between-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-and-wesley-hunt-poll/

J.L. Partners found 27.0% of likely voters supported Paxton, 25.7% backed Hunt, and 25.5% would cast a ballot for Cornyn if the election were held today. Another 21.7% were unsure of whom they would support.

[Renew Deal]

11. Wow. That would be crazy

Are the choices basically extremism, fresh face, status quo?

That’s always a tough one for status quo when people are unhappy.

[Polybius]

12. Honestly, I only know about John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

I know nothing about Wesley Hunt. I'm curious if he is to Cornyn's left or right, or if he's about the same, only younger at 44. Here's his pic:

[edhopper]

4. And the fucking asshole voters of Texas

will put a man who should have been convicted in the Senate.

[yellowdogintexas]

6. now those polls are saying not. Paxton is running best in their primary but both Democrats

are currently running ahead of Paxton. It's a long way to November

[edhopper]

8. I don't trust your State

it's always Lucy with the football for the Dems.

[blogslug]

7. It could happen

Man, I don't know what to think. John Cornyn is awful, awful but if he won the primary he would probably beat either Talarico or Crockett in the general.

Ken Paxton is nasty and mean nobody likes him. Our chances of beating him are promising.

All I will say is Angela Paxton has the opportunity to do the funniest thing.

[JI7]

9. I hope Cornyn wins

The people of Texas voted for Trump so I don't think the democrsts have a better chance against Paxton. So if we lose .....


But I'm hoping enough Republicans will just be too angry to vote in November.