On Day 1, Iran launched 504 ballistic missiles at it's neighbors... by day 5, it was 29

[WarGamer]

Don't believe the lies about Iran's "vengeance" or such crap

https://www.facebook.com/TheJerusalemPost/posts/irans-missile-stockpile-shrinks-as-us-israel-campaign-intensifiesevery-missile-i/1375267641293873/


https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Irans-Firepower-Has-Almost-Run-Out-1.pdf

[LudwigPastorius]

1. Since you're doing stats,...

how's their drone situation?

[WarGamer]

3. fortunately drones don't carry 1000 LB payloads.

Shahed has 50kg warhead

[Melon]

2. Because the US has destroyed their launchers

They aren’t shooting because they lack the ability , not because they lack the hatred.

[artemisia1]

10. No it hasn't. They, most, at least, are in underground tunnels that shoot through the sand then are immediately

moved elsewhere as in "shoot and scoot". We return fire to where they were and declare it a "destruction". We are wasting Tomahawk missiles on inflatable decoys as well. BDA after the Serbian campaign, 1992 Gulf War and other engagements have shown that we count as "destroyed" multiple times in numbers than they, our adversaries, actually possessed. Do not forget how much punishment North Vietnam took from American bombers and stayed in the fight -- to the end.

They are firing less missiles because the ones they are now using do multiple times the damage of the volleys they fired initially to deplete Israeli/American interceptors.

This, "they are running out of launchers", etc. are simply talking points to dodge the disaster this has been and is. Remember when Russia was "out of missiles" in UKR 3 + years ago? They were not and are not.

[RoseTrellis]

21. Let's get real

No missile are launched thru the sand. That’s just impossible.
Don’t fall for the Iranian propaganda about tomahawks being wasted on inflatable decoys.
That might have worked to fool militaries in the early days of reconnaissance when overflights were infrequent, a tank/plane that just showed up one day could easily be identified as a valid target.
Those days are over. In today’s persistent surveillance, targets just don’t “appear”; the war planners/targeting cells can easily review previous footage to determine from where they came from and will easily reject those decoys. If you wanna do a deep dive, look up “gorgon stare” to get an idea of what’s possible. What you’ll,find is just the publicly availability capability, or doubt the system can do far more than that.
This target analysis is a core competency of the military that has existed for decades and is independent of who is in the White House.

[artemisia1]

23. Let's get real. You simply don't know what you are talking about. Serbia used them very effectively against U.S.

bombing during the Kosovo War and, while we blew up plenty of bridges, BDA eventually showed that we did NOT destroy anywhere near the number of tanks, artillery pieces and aircraft. Both Seribia and Iran treat their decoys as real in terms of appearing to service them, putting them where they would be expected, and moving them. They will even "cover" them with netting to appear "camoflouged". As to missile fired through the dessert, probably only a very thin canopy, from a tunnel, watch this video and be informed:

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

30. ISR today compared to over 2 decades ago

Are not even remotely comparable.

[artemisia1]

31. Nor is the quality of decoys. The painted plywood models used by Serbia were obsolescent by the earl-200's. The new,

inflatable models produced by China and purchased by Iran are indistinguishable at distance from the real thing and many have coatings on them to appear solid to EW. Both UKR and Russia have used decoys successfully in the current war, both having extensive ISR capability. Also, decoys are used much more intelligently now. Dropping them on a runway, inexplicably, stopped working a long time ago. Now they treat them like the real thing and "service" them, move them to simulate use, and eve put "camouflage" netting on them so they appear as valuable assets being protected.

Finally, wartime BDA sucks, whether done by Americans or others.

[SoFlaBro]

4. Isn't Jinsa fucking part of the pro Israel lobby aligned with Likud and other MAGA adjacent fuckstains?

[WarGamer]

5. Are you saying the numbers are off? There are more sources like JPost...

Unless you don't like anything connected to Israel.

[AloeVera]

32. A neo-con inspired, CONSERVATIVE think tank made up of war hawks.

"Regime-change" and WMD cheerleaders for GWB in Iraq (remember Chalabi? He was pushed by JINSA, later turned out to be a fraud and likely Iranian agent!), supporters of genocidal Azerbeijan, and now, since 2018, advocators of a U.S.-Israeli mutual defense pact (looks like they were pretty successful).

Tidbit: In March 2023, JINSA issued an open letter calling on the White House and Congress to "immediately provide Israel with the advanced weapons it needs to deter and prevent a nuclear Iran".

Crying...

[StoolPigeon]

6. By next week

We will Discover it was 29 party balloons.

[dpibel]

7. How about "Surrender is imminent"?

Should we believe that?

What happened to those Kurds you were counting on the other day? It was all coming into focus!!!

Tell me the one about how air superiority is all you need to defeat a nation of 90 million. I'm all ears.

[WarGamer]

8. I have no idea what will happen... but I do recognize nonsense on social media

[dpibel]

12. You didn't mean that, right?

I mean, like...

Self own.

Fill in the blanks quiz:

"The _________ will lead the __________ assault on _______."

I guess you could argue that DU is not social media, and thus recognition is different. But that's a bit of stretch.

[Metaphorical]

11. Yeah, I almost had to laugh when I heard that Trump was trying to get the Kurds to attack

Somehow, I'm not surprised when they replied, "Um, no."

Iran's goal is simple at this stage - outwait the US. The Iranians can continue bombing ships and US bases, as well as continuing to take out soft targets like data centers, but the US does not have the logistical support at this point to wage an extended ground war without this thing dragging on for months or even years. The next attacks I expect will be cyberwarfare-related, and the US is considerably more vulnerable in that regard than the Iranians.

The US has a massive fight ahead of it if it wants to control Iran, while the Iranians only have to wait long enough for the rest of the world to rein in the US in order to clear the straits.

[artemisia1]

9. That was their strategy. Saturate Israel and U.S. bases with cheap, older missiles, and exhaust their interceptors to

make way for the real stuff. They are doing substantially greater damage to Israel with a much smaller number of newer, more effective missiles. Tel Aviv is in the dark now and their radar capabilities have been so damaged, as has the U.S.'s in the region, that Tel Aviv residents no longer get a 20 minute warning but now only about 90 seconds or none at all.

Our ships have not retreated out of range without reason and we are not using Indian ports for resupply rather than the one in Bahrain because Iran is on its "last legs". They are winning this simply by surviving and staying in the fight.

[WarGamer]

13. Pretty much everything you just wrote is inaccurate.

1) the US moved out of Bahrain BEFORE the attack

2) Israelis still get an alert from their cell phones upon launch from Iran and the shorter alarm when they're incoming

3) There is no reduction in US radar coverage.

[Lancero]

14. Swap some country names and it'd look like it was sourced straight from a Russian Telegram channel.

Legit, I had to double check and make sure I didn't somehow end up on one with how similar the argument is.

[artemisia1]

15. Do you get your news from Fox? I am in contact with several residents of Tel Aviv and the situation there is dire.

Yes, we moved many, but not all, personnel from the GCC States because we knew they were vulnerable. The radars they destroyed were still being used and were essential to successful intercepts.

Israelis themselves are complaining about the short notice now.

I suspect you are pro-Israeli, which is your right, but don't drink the Flavor-Aid please.

[WarGamer]

16. I'm not fond of Israel, they're bullies in the region, specifically re gaza...

But this full court press to make it seem like Iran is holding their own is just silly.

X.com is literally FULL of Russian and Iranian propaganda hyping up Iranian attacks...

[artemisia1]

17. They are fighting using asymmetrical warfare as the NVA did so successfully. No, they are not matching our

Air power, and yes, their Navy has been largely destroyed. It, however, was never going to be a player in this battle. Iran has more emotionally resilient and hardship hardened people than the U.S. has had in generations and they will take far more punishment than we ever will. For them, to stay in the fight is the route to eventual victory as it was for the NVA, the Taliban, etc. We also sold out our industrial capacity and cannot replace missiles, radars and interceptors in anything approaching realistic levels required to continue our present intensity. They are also going to win on the political front -- as Vietnam did -- as Europe, India, Japan and South Korea have their economies devastated by Trump's foolish actions.

They can and will take significantly more punishment than either the U.S. or Israel is able or willing to. They are also backed by two superpowers with industrial capacity in arms production that WILL NOT allow them to fall.

[RoseTrellis]

22. Agreed

X is generally unusable now to try to figure out what’s going on.
The signal to noise ratio is terrible.
It’s full of AI videos and pictures posted by accounts laughably inflating the US losses and understating the beating Iran is taking.
It’s a shame to see some of that garbage regurgitated here.

[artemisia1]

24. I do not get my information from X (Twitter) and I am not repeating garbage. One of my sources is several

current residents living in Tel Aviv who are telling me that they are getting pummeled and the government is lying. The attacks there are escalating, albeit by more effective missiles and not by the massive barrage of cheap missiles in the first days that depleted their Arrow and Patriot systems.

You are the one repeating Trump and Hegseth propaganda.

[LeftInTX]

20. War Gamer is not pro-Israel!

I remember from 2023!

[artemisia1]

28. Thanks. Good to know. His sources are Israeli, though, and that is a government that has taken spin and lying to

a level in recent years that even Trump can't match.

[questionseverything]

29. I remember war saying Ukraine would fall to Russia within a few months

Sometimes everyone’s crystal ball clouds up

[dpibel]

34. PUTIN WILL NEVER INVADE UKRAINE!!!!1!11

HE IS SO NOT STUPID!!

I think that was 'Gamer's biggest hit of all.

But he's been pretty consistent, overall. Confidently, insultingly wrong.

I think I'd like to play some war games with him. For money.

[questionseverything]

37. I wouldn't go that far or use that tone but no one is correct all the time

[Greg_In_SF]

26. Tel Aviv

is not in the dark. Plenty of live cams showing the exact opposite.

[artemisia1]

27. Like Kiev, they have power at times, other times no. They were hit in a transmission or power plant and lost citywide

power, but their damage control people, like the Ukrainians, patched the system and put the lights back on.

They are still getting hammered.

[artemisia1]

18. According to residents in Tel Aviv, last night was the largest strike on Israel since the war began. You may wish

to reconsider your thread's assumptions.

[Boo1]

19. Iran doesn't stand a chance in a fight with the US...

but they don't have to beat us. All they have to do is last until the politcal cost is too high for us to continue.

They don't have to sink aircraft carriers and blow up bases. All they have to do is keep Hormuz jammed up and threaten oil production long enough that the political pressure makes Trump TACO out.

Judging from the support that the war started with, and the most recent reports coming out of the White House, that's pretty damn soon.

[artemisia1]

25. Maybe not, but they are curb-stomping Tel Aviv and Haifa as we speak. /nt

[dpibel]

35. What is your definition of "beat us"?

How does "last until the political cost is too high for us to continue" differ from "beat us"?

In your analytic, did Afghanistan "beat us"? Or just "last until..."?

[Boo1]

38. Well,

We occupied their country for 20 years and overthrew their government. Only left because we decided to, could take it back in 2 weeks if we wanted.

Taliban money showed back up when we left.

Thats pretty clearly not "beating us."

[dpibel]

39. That's one of the funniest things I've read in a long time

Bravo for channeling that muscular warfighter bellicosity and swagger!

[Boo1]

40. Whats funny

Is you thinking anything I said is wrong.

Trump signed a peace agreement with the Taliban because he wanted to say he had ended the war for his 2020 campaign, no other reason. If the US were still there, the Taliban wouldn't be in control.

If we really wanted it again, we would take it in weeks.

[dpibel]

41. What did we win in Afghanistan?

A couple thousand plus military people got killed, plus we spent billions, so we know what we lost.

What did we win?

The government we installed didn't govern beyond the fortifications.

The Taliban never went away.

"We can, like, INVADE any time we want" actually isn't much of a flex in light of reality.

But it seems you don't bother with that shit much.

[Boo1]

42. A dead bin Laden

That was the goal going in, and Neptune Spear wouldn't have been possible without controlling Afghanistan. That's both operationally and forcing bin Laden into Pakistan and out of his more secure footing in Afghanistan.

THe reason we didn't leave after that was that we had a President who actually gave a shit about what would happen to the country after we left. In 2017 that changed.

And isn't hiding in a cave for 20 years until the US gets bored and leaves the very definition of "lasting?"

[dpibel]

43. "until the US gets bored and leaves"

I can't even begin to say how utterly weird that formulation is.

It really does appear to me to be a Hegseth level of faux testosterone.

Anyway.

Swagger on, Boo1. You clearly live in a reality that is different from mine.

[Kingofalldems]

33. So should we all just get behind trump

and genuflect whenever he appears on TV?

[dpibel]

36. Well, duh.

What are you? Some kind of traitor?