The Kharg Island idea doesn't really make sense

[Renew Deal]

If the US takes the island, 2 million barrels per day go offline. Oil is pumped to the island using pipes. If the Iranians turn off the oil, there is nothing for the US to export. The only way for it to work financially is to take a significant portion of Iran's oil infrastructure, which I don't think there's much of an appetite for. That's besides the question of how Iran would react. Would they torch the island or attack neighboring oil infrastructure or both? It also doesn't deal with the fact that that Iran has other ways to get oil out.

It seems that the choices are take the island and reduce the oil supply or leave the island alone and continue giving Iran sanctions relief because of the oil supply. Another reason Trump probably wants the island is saving face. He can claim he did something and is so powerful, but that doesn't achieve any military objective.


Source for the 2 million barrels number: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/19/why-targeting-kharg-island-could-backfire-on-trump-00834972

[JBTaurus83]

1. How do we know

Iran hasn’t set traps all over on and around the island to take out a massive number of our troops? They would be open to constant drone and missile attacks as well.

[Renew Deal]

2. You're right but

Does Trump care about that?

[JBTaurus83]

5. I definitely don't think Shithole cares

I’m more concerned about our troops. I think they would be walking into a death trap. It’s pretty clear Iran has been gaming all of these situations out for quite some time.

[Irish_Dem]

15. I keep saying over and over that Trump will kill as many people as it takes

to get what he wants.

No one believed me, maybe now people are listening.

[BidenRocks]

12. Thank you!

Everything may be booby trapped!
That slows an advance.
Shit! Missed one!

[RandySF]

3. If I were Iran.....

I'd blow it up and deny Trump any access to those facilities.

[Renew Deal]

4. To me, that makes the most sense from Iran's perspective

Remove almost all the oil from the island. If the US makes any move towards it, hit the self-destruct button. They would be the kings of the environmental disaster ashes.

[JBTaurus83]

6. I think they would wait until we are there

And inflict ultimate embarrassment and pain.

[JBTaurus83]

7. I'd also say

If Iran does take out a significant number of Americans, it will cause irreparable damage between the US and Israeli people. Many Americans are racists, sexists, xenophobes, and wanted prices to go down.

If we suffer a defeat, AND prices increase/people lose their jobs, Israel will be the first one that will be blamed. This was not a well thought out operation at any level.

I think it was another case of wishful thinking, bad intel, and underestimating/misunderstanding Iranians.

[David__77]

10. Israel is increasingly exposed.

[JBTaurus83]

11. It's sad, so many innocent people

In the areas affected.

[RockRaven]

8. The idea, such as it is, is about leverage and coercion not about fixing oil prices directly.

It is the taking of a hostage to then use in a trade.

Kharg Island is in the Persian Gulf so anything exported from there has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island cannot replace oil which is blocked from being shipped through the strait, because its oil can be blocked from being shipped through the strait by the same current mechanisms.

If anyone is portraying a potential seizure/invasion of Kharg Island as a means to reducing the oil price spikes caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, they are lying, crazy, ignorant, or wildly optimistic about a very multi-step hypothetical.

[JBTaurus83]

9. I'd say the Iranians aren't too concerned

Pace of attacks on Israel ‘becoming more intense’

Samah Watad, a journalist based in central Israel, has spoken to Al Jazeera about the latest Iranian attacks on the country.

She said the Iranian attacks set off sirens across central Israel and that a missile launched from Lebanese territory struck a car in northern Israel, causing damage.

“This is the third notification in the last 30 minutes,” she said, adding that the pace of attacks is increasing and “becoming more intense” compared with earlier in the conflict.

[jmowreader]

13. I am going to assume.

…that Iran placed high explosives at critical points in the oil terminal when they built it as a fail safe measure. They know everyone over there hates them and they’d eventually be attacked by someone.

[Cosmocat]

14. While NONE of this makes sense

In their deranged minds either way it cuts Iran's $ from oil off, which they think will make them concede.

Meanwhile at the same time they are starving Cuba to death as one immediate example of a country determined to to hold on to its sovereignty in the face of our senseless cruelty.

So, they will say they are going to take their oil and sell it anyways, 100% of their idiot base will believe it and call us deranged for not believing it, the media won't talk about it and MAGA great LIBS SUCK!

Just like after crowing over how lord DT has gas prices cheaper than ever in history they now living bleat SMALL PRICE TO PAY and LIBS NEVER CARED WHEN BIDEN MADE HIGH GASCPRICES SO SHUT UP!

We are just going along for the ride now.