Can somebody explain why the S&P didn't crash later in the afternoon after news of the Iran ceasefire collapse ?

[ChicagoTeamster]

Sure, the day started with irrational positivity on the previous evenings news of the ceasefire, but it was being reported by early afternoon today, before the markets closed, that Israel was bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon and also bombing Iran and that Iran had closed the strait of Hormuz.

Why didn't the market drop before closing? Did the plunge protection team keep up the buying to inflate the price so insiders could sell? Was this failed ceasefire another market manipulation move by TrumpCo?

What's going to happen tomorrow?

[Johonny]

1. I did some selling today

Seems like a buy the news, no one knows the fact, at least no one in public...

[jmbar2]

3. My theory...

From what I understand, institutional investors are always hedged against major drops in markets, and take advantage of news to adjust their huge positions. They use AI to scan news reports, and trading algorithms immediately adjust their hedges when market news hits. They are in and out before the human traders even hear the news.

In the days leading up to Trump's threats, Big Money heavily hedged for a potential big dip if Trump carried out his threats against Iran. When Trump announced late yesterday afternoon that he would postpone Armageddon (fully anticipated move, and traded by insiders), it resulted in a violent reversal up in the Asian session of the futures market.

The overnight surge put a bunch of New York short hedges underwater. When the New York market opened, they had to cover their shorts today, forcing them to buy and driving up the market.

However, they can't do it all at once. Their orders are so big it would drive the price up even higher, making it more expensive to get out of their shorts. So they do programmed buys and sells at different times in the day, often triggered by news, to get the best prices. Like letting the air out of an over-inflated tire.

Some kind of news, or trigger, took the market down this afternoon on algorithmic selling, allowing more of them to cover their shorts at a better price, which drove the market up a second time.

I'm learning how this works by following TopStep TV during the day. It's a stock trading all-day broadcast whose personalities are all long-term market makers and traders. I could be wrong in this interpretation, but it is a possibility based on their commentary today.

[Happy Hoosier]

4. The market was hedged against Trump losing his mind.

Last edited Wed Apr 8, 2026, 11:26 PM - Edit history (1)

So when it became clear he was backing off full scale insanity, lots of folks bought back in.

Add in that the market has more built-in demand tha ever. and the market was ripe for a pretty good mini-rally. Lots of folks like me are ABB (always be buying) investors. I invest in index ETFs and do so regularly, regardless of what the markets are doing. I pretty much know I cannot time the market, so I don't try to.

Thre markets guess that the cease-fire chaos wouldn;t trigger immediate attacks was probably correct. Trump has lost his taste for the war. He didn't get the massive easy victory he wanted. He's looking for a way out. He'll find someway to declare victory and leave. He's had it.


So the markets are counting on slow crawl to a "new normal." We'll see how it goes.

[Hey Joe]

5. Couldn't figure that out either and was expecting

markets to fall later in the day.
I just wrote it up to irrational positivity.

[gab13by13]

6. Maybe the not-so Invisible hand of the market

Crude oil dropped with the ceasefire news, but later went back up some.

The price of gas and diesel worries Krasnov. IMO crude should be around $200/barrel today not $100/barrel.

Iran hit a Saudi oil pipeline that by-passes Hormuz.

[Jack Valentino]

7. All the major traders had already left for the bars,

to reward themselves for their shrewd deals.....