CNN Data Guru Warns Trump Support Crashing: 'Absolute Collapse'

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

CNN’s chief data analyst is sounding the alarm on President Donald Trump’s abysmal poll numbers, saying they amount to an “absolute collapse” among key supporters.

CNN’s Harry Enten said Trump, pushing 80, has watched his approval rating tank in recent months, with his disapproval hitting a record 62 percent as Republican-leaning Independents turn on him.

“We are talking about a very important block [of voters] for the president of the United States—that is Republican-leaning Independents. That is what’s going on," Enten said Monday.

At this point in Trump’s first term, nearly three-quarters of Republican-leaning Independents supported him. Now, support has slipped to just half.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/cnn-data-guru-warns-trump-195957808.html

[kimbutgar]

1. It should be 99% disapproval as the 1 % are the only people he's helping now !

But I until I hear my MAGA BIL has turned on him he’ll still have power over the neurolinguistically programmed and they can’t break away. Just like the Jim Jones cult members who share similarities to the 🍊🐖💩 supporters. ( sorry I just can’t write his name)

[BannonsLiver]

15. Well keep us posted on your BIL since that is the metric that will apparently determine the mid terms.

[erronis]

34. Agree. I like the use of "neurolinguistically programmed" to describe his BIL

Somehow someone has managed to sneak into some of those layers that aren't reached by rationale thinking.

[J_William_Ryan]

2. Republicans don't care.

The blind partisan right will never abandon Trump.

[pat_k]

3. I don't think pollsters are keeping up with the exodus from the Republican Party

My theory: That 83% approval among Republicans is actually 83% of a shrinking number. When they extrapolate from samples, they make assumptions about the percentages in the population each group represents. The thing is, the percentage of Republicans has been declining quarter over quarter. I don't think pollsters are keeping up.

In other words, while the percentage approval among R's looks "stubborn" that percentage actually reflects fewer and fewer people. Conversely, the high percentage of disapproval among D's, even if it looks stable, actually represents more and more people.

Q1 2026 (ABC report of gallup numbers)
25% Republican
43% Independent
30% Democratic

Average across all quarters 2025 (Gallup)
27% Republican
45% Independent
27% Democratic

The difference from the average over 2025 my not look dramatic, but remember, when looked in the context of the past 23 years, you can see that the percentage of people who self-identify as Republicans has not been as low as it was in the first quarter of this year since 2013.



How dramatic the move is is seen very clearly when you add R+R leaning I's and D+D leaning I's.

[Cirsium]

12. a shrinking number

Exactly right. "Such and such percentage of Republicans still support Trump" is misleading when the number of people identifying as Republican is shrinking.

[pat_k]

20. I think that pollsters may also be assuming...

... the percentage of R's is bigger than it is.

The "gold standard" for party affiliation has long been gallup's annual number, which is released at the begining of each year based on interviews conducted over the course of the year.

It is tough to find quarterly numbers. They don't publish them -- at least not directly to the public that I can find. I was VERY surprised to see ABC's first quarter estimates from Gallup in that report.

I suspect they've been seeing a surprising downward trend since the felon took office. I think the first quarter numbers were reported because it has now become clear something "strange' is going on -- i.e., a big exodus. And it's been going on since the felon took office.

The thing is, i'm no expert, but it is my understanding that party affiliation is a very stable thing. It doesn't tend to change much within the same cohort. It does shift as young people are added and older people subtracted over longer periods of time.

So, if, on the assumption party affiliation is pretty stable, pollsters use the annual "gold standard" when they extrapolate from samples, rather than adjusting for every quarter, they are over-estimating his support because they are actually missing the "exodus."

[erronis]

35. Would I be the only person who thinks some pollsters (including Gallup) have some agendas?

[ITAL]

31. Perhaps

But for about the last ten years I've seen/read people say that Trump's approval among Republicans is so high only because less people are staying Republican. That has yet to actually show up given gotten more votes every time he's run.

Granted midterms are different, but I am not convinced the GOP is really shrinking.

[pat_k]

33. I hadn't actually seen people sayiing that.

Between 2015 and the last quarter of 2024, the trend was up and down so anyone saying it was consistently down wasn't looking at numbers.

The consistent downward trend took off after Q4 2024. Since then it has been a steady downward trend for six quarters. At no point prior to that since 2016 has the trend been the same direction for that many quarters. I find that significant.




Sure, maybe we shouldn't get too excited until the gap between D+D leaning I's and R+R leaning I's hits 15 points (that is, a bigger gap than any time since 1991), but I see the current trend as quite significant -- and a good sign. And while the current D+D leaning I's isn't as high as in 2008, I also find it significant that the number of R+R leaning I's is at the same low level of 39% -- lowest since 1991 at least.

[ITAL]

37. I had

They may not have been looking at actual figures, but I've read it dozens of times through the years.

[OhioTim]

55. Maybe, but...

many of the polls I have seen while showing Trump's numbers going down, those people are not going to the Democrats. They're either going to hold their noses and vote for Republicans, becoming "temporary" independents or thinking about sitting our certain elections.

[Skittles]

6. well that will be good for us in November

yes indeed

[Tree Lady]

7. We'll see how many stupid people

Still vote republican in red states in November, I bet most of them.

[BannonsLiver]

14. So are you expecting a rough mid term for Democrats?

[erronis]

36. It's so much easier for non-thinkers to pull the same levers, time after time. Especially if hubby does so also.

[Midnight Writer]

4. Just wait for the gladiator fights at the WH on his birthday. That should turn things around for him.

He has nothing to offer but reality-show dramatic stunts. He doesn't know how to do anything but stir shit.

He is a conman who people are losing confidence in.

[FoxNewsSucks]

8. True, that shit will actually work on the fucking booger-eating MAGAt morons.

[BannonsLiver]

27. Who gives a fuck what they think.

[BannonsLiver]

17. Yes he'll gain a bazillion new voters and win the mid terms and 14 future terms in the WH.

🤦‍♂️

[Ray Bruns]

18. At least the Romans got BREAD and circuses.

We’re not even getting the bread.

[Keepthesoulalive]

40. Those gas prices and hunger

Seems to be getting their attention, wait until the shortages hit. Maga who, what, I don’t know no maga. As they run inside to hide their maga merch.

[Skittles]

5. they finally noticed the emperor is wearing no clothes

stupid fucking morons

[AZ8theist]

9. Gee, if only someboday warned Americans what was going to happen.......

But this analysis means shit unless it's a few days before the election.
I'm not convinced the Reich Wing doesn't have the fix in for the midterms.

[usonian]

10. Boy who cries WOLF! WOLF! WOLF! endlessly.

Is stealing their sheep.

And it took these people how many years to find out?

[Orrex]

11. Maybe he'll just fucking die already

[Akakoji]

19. It happens

Often not soon enough.

[travelingthrulife]

13. Not nearly enough.

[leftyladyfrommo]

16. Better late than never, I guess.

He's getting just plain pathetic.

I saw a video of him giving a speech se
veral years ago and there isn't any comparison to him now. He had energy. Now he just wanders around abd his filter and judgement just aren't even there.

[hibbing]

21. But 80% approval from Republicans....shrug n/t

[BannonsLiver]

26. That number used to be in the 90s.

[paleotn]

22. $5 dollar gas will kinda do that.

Stomp all over people's civil rights, gut government agencies that protect and serve all of us, kill Americans on the street in cold blood, and pilfer tax payer funding for personal gain.....get's little in the way of traction. But jack up their gas prices, not to mention their groceries, and they're fucking up in arms!!! I don't know whether to be happy or sad.

[Mysterian]

24. We will look back fondly on the days of 5$ gasoline

if the republicans retain control much longer.

[Mysterian]

23. It's mind-boggling that anyone can support a pure cretin to be their leader

The power of the billionaire-owned mass media propaganda is stunning and frightening.

[Baitball Blogger]

25. So, why then, are the Republicans in Congress voting in a one billion dollar proviso for his ballroom?

Even if he gets the money, it won't slow him down.

[relogic]

28. Spare me

the proposed elation that maga/pukepubs support is in ‘Absolute Collapse'. If this is collapse, I direct you to the significant victory of this regime’s achievements the past year and a half.

As a symbol of what collapse means?

I present to you when he was allowed to put his name beside and on buildings, build ballrooms, construct towering arches to his name and destroy our gleaming Whitehouse I knew any talk of collapse is the lie out of hell literally.

[Jirel]

29. No cheering until after the midterms.

None of this matters unless we have (relatively) fair elections, and the numbers translate to removing sufficient fascists.

[MineralMan]

30. Well, As He Knows, He Can Resign at Any Time

Now would be fine. Put it all behind you, Donnie!

[dave99]

38. a wandering projectile could do wonders

[GenThePerservering]

32. "Sounding the alarm"?

in what beast of a world is that bad news?

[Torchlight]

39. If gas prices maintain its present direction going into Memorial Day

I wouldn't be surprised to see even a few die-hard members of of fan club leadership in the legislatures begin to denounce him. Pump prices are not a theoretical concept nor a fictional anecdote to cover our narratives, but an occurrence we're forced to confront daily; and given the American proclivity to prioritize cash over conviction, I don't see this ending good for Mr. trump's base.

[Kablooie]

41. That's not an absolute crash. That's just a slight dip.

An absolute crash would require 90% the country to take their heads out of Trumps ass.
But they are all stuck in there so tight together that no one can pull out.

[BannonsLiver]

43. Fuck I had no idea Trumps approval rating is up to 90 percent.

We are screwn!1111111111111111111111111111111

[Kablooie]

47. Actually, 80% of Republicans still approve of him.

The number has barely budged.

[BannonsLiver]

49. It's budged significantly from when it was over 90 a year ago.

80 is a bad number for him. I know Trump has so thoroughly routed a lot of folks so it’s hard to grasp that there may be an actual end to this. There is and it’s coming.

[cstanleytech]

42. Unfortunately I doubt many of those voters have really learned not to repeat themselves and make the same mistake.

[BannonsLiver]

44. So the GOP is in for a successful mid term in your view?

Are we looking at a possible 3rd term for Donnie?

[cstanleytech]

45. I'm simply saying that that independents rarely really learn not to trust Republicans.

[BannonsLiver]

46. Trump's at 25 percent with independents.

[Kablooie]

48. Yep. They've learned from Trump.

If something,goes wrong always blame someone else, not Trump.

[Kaleva]

56. The special elections are telling a different story

[cstanleytech]

57. I'm speaking of the long term and in the long term independent voters are a rather fickle bunch.

[Kaleva]

58. That's what makes them Independents

[cstanleytech]

59. And I makes them easy to flip and thus not reliable enough for me to trust them to not vote for a Republican.

[BlueTsunami2018]

50. It's always about the economy.

Well, 99% of the time anyway. Most people really don’t give a shit what you do as long they feel good about the economy. President Biden was hammered relentlessly about the economy from the moment he took office until the day he left both by Piss and the corporate media. It didn’t matter that we came out of Covid better than anyone, that inflation was under control, that significant investments were made in the country or that the stock market was doing well. People didn’t feel like the economy was doing well and so they let that imbecile back into power on his absurd promises. All the other stuff was peripheral.

Fast forward to now and the economy really does suck. Average Joe is really paying the price at the pump and at the grocery store and every other aspect of his life. People don’t care about this war except that it’s sending the price of gas through the roof. If it had worked like Piss said it would, people would be fine with it.

Most voters don’t get into the minutiae of politics, they care about what they can see and feel. And their wallets are taking a beating.

And that’s why the Republicans are going to get dog walked in November.

[EnergizedLib]

51. Sadly, I don't think Indiana is getting the memo

Almost every Republican who voted against gerrymandering is losing right now to a MAGAt challenger.

[Red Mountain]

52. So in NC.......

I can go to a state website, type in a name and see how that person is registered. It shows what elections and primaries they have voted in for the last 20+ years.

It seems to me few people are aware of this.

Independents that always vote in republican primaries......are registered as independents because they think they are flying under the radar. At some point they were unwilling to commit in person. First time registering, getting a drivers license, whatever. They didn't want to say a party name at the time......but are steady voters for republican candidates.

At this point anybody registered as an independent and willing to entertain the thought of voting for trump or his minions is anything but independent.

Don't get me started on registered Democrats who vote republican. They exist around here still.

Anyway.......was wondering......does your state have a voter lookup like this?

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/reglkup/

[sakabatou]

53. You mean the people who've had their faces eaten by leopards are "waking up"?

[mdbl]

54. Dump doesn't give a shit

He'll just call it fake news.