Just trying to figure it all out

[snowybirdie]

We're seeing gerrymandering stories and legal cases everywhere. We're also seeing polling showing Trump's and Republican actions and policies are not at all popular with Americans by wide margins. My question is how can we be so sure that Congressional districts will go to one party or another? The American voter is not a fool. Can't a historically reliable Republican District have a lot of voters who are totally pissed off and hate this Administration? Can't they surprise those who study such things and vote Democratic? We're not sheep and we celebrate our democracy, don't we?

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. You are asking precisely the right questions

Over the past year, in election after election, 2024 Trump +20 districts are swinging 15-30 points towards the Dems.

Nothing, not even desperate Hail Mary gerrymandering, can stop the Blue Tsunami in November.

[Bettie]

2. We may all be underestimating the number

of complete and total idiots in our country.

Even pissed off, they'll just blindly vote for Republicans....doing the same thing over and over in hopes that it will eventually help.

[Aepps22]

3. We Can't Be 100% Sure

Essentially all the gerrymandering does is sets a high floor for the party that the gerrymander was designed to benefit where under normal turnout scenarios and partisan voting patterns you should presumably pick up seats. In the event your voters don’t turn out, the other side turns out or your own voters vote against you, you don’t win.

[HAB911]

4. I just can't believe

no party independents could be anything but PISSED off to the max. but I have been wrong once or twice before about the common electorate

[BannonsLiver]

6. The polling shows independents are not happy with the GOP.

Of course anytime I bring that up in the middle of a classic DU Doom Orgy, which is what is happening today on the forum, people get upset, say it doesn’t matter, etc.

unfortunately Trump has utterly defeated at least half the posters on the forum to the point of hopelessness. Sad to watch.

[HAB911]

7. here's hoping they are bigly pissed

as they should be. sometimes I get disgusted when it becomes a whine-fest

[eppur_se_muova]

8. Unhappy enough to get out and vote ?

It seems a lot of "Independents" are just not interested in supporting either party, which is a strange justification for the term "Independent". "Inactive" would be a more appropriate term, because when people get "disgusted with the whole mess", they respond by not bothering to vote, which is obviously self-defeating. Informing themselves adequately to make an informed choice between candidates, or between parties, on the other hand ... "well, it's like work, man, and besides what difference would it make" ?

[CrispyQ]

5. Gerrymandering can backfire if a district's dispostion changes quickly, & that's what's happening.

Are they pissed off enough?

House reps are especially vulnerable. People might be more willing to vote for the other guy or just leave it blank, since their terms are only two years. ~crosses fingers