We're not going to lose.

[mr715]

There is no way we aren't going to have the majority in the House of Representatives in 2027. We will likely have a very significant majority.

We might even win the Senate, which was unthinkable a year or so ago. Senate seats are not subject to gerrymandering, and that we are very close to winning suggests the overwhelming anti-establishment sentiment that will drive a blue wave in 2026.

The VA outcome sucks, but don't drive off the cliff yet. We're still going to win.

[senseandsensibility]

1. I appreciate your optimism

Feeling a little down about VA I have to admit, mainly because it's just so unfair. Not quite up to making the best of it yet; still in the anger stage. But whenever I get like this, I am careful not to start doom and gloom threads. Soon I'll be right there with ya, posting positively I hope.

[mr715]

2. Hope is a communal virtue

Those that have, give.

Those that need, get.

We are all greater for sharing it.


Edit: The "get" is not imperative -- I am not telling you to "get hopeful", I am suggesting that you are deserving of receiving a hopeful message and can take it however you please.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. Go read this:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/5/8/800035672/community/a-brief-explanation-on-the-va-supreme-court-ruling/

Hope it lifts your spirits.

[regnaD kciN]

30. TBH, it doesn't...

It seems to be saying that Dems still have a shot to pick up two or three seats in VA. Which is better than the status quo, but we need overall bigger gains than that to make up for the number of seats we’re going to lose to MAGA gerrymandering-on-steroids in the southern and central states. They heavily skewed the count, and we need to be able to skew ours just as much just to stay even.

[Fiendish Thingy]

33. Your math is off

Republican seats added by Gerrymander:
TX +5
FL +4
TN +1
AL +1 (maybe)
LA +1
MO +1
NC +1
OH +1
——————
Total= 14-15 seats

Dem seats added by redistricting:

CA +5
UT +1 (yes you read that right)
—————-
Total= 6 seats

Now subtract the Dem gains from Republican gains:

14-15 - 6 = 8-9 net seat gain for Republicans.

Right now, Republicans have a five seat margin in the house, however, five seats are vacant. If all those seats were filled, as they were on January 3, 2025, the margin would be 3 seats.

So, 3 seat margin, + 8-9 seat gain via gerrymandering = 11-12 seat hypothetical margin.

Except, Dems are projected to pickup a minimum of 20-30 seats.

That gives Dems, at the very, very, bare minimum an 8 seat majority.

Now, some folks are projecting Dems could pick up as many as 40-50 seats. In 2018, when Trump’s approval ratings were higher than they are now, and inflation and the economy were doing much better, Dems picked up 40 seats.

And there’s (at least) one more factor to consider:

All that republican gerrymandering required some solid red districts to be weakened, and some of the new red districts aren’t that strong.

Remember this: throughout the past year, 2024 Trump +20 districts were swinging 15-30 points towards the Dems in actual elections, not just opinion polls.

So, if they took a Trump +20 district and turned it into a Trump +5 district in order to create another Trump +5 district out of a formerly Harris +5 district…can you do the math?

I’m not feeling cocky, I’m not over confident, but based on the data, including the fact that the Trump-induced, Republican-enabled suffering spreading across all regional, racial and partisan boundaries that is only going to increase in the next six months, I draw this conclusion:

Nothing can stop the Blue Tsunami in November

[lostincalifornia]

5. No one can predict the outcome. Voters let us down in 2000, 2016 and 2024, which

gave us the SC we have today, and the destruction of the voting rights act.

Those are not things that can be lightly brushed aside.

It all depends if Democrats get out and vote.

[mr715]

8. And Independents voting Democratic

And Republicans staying home.

[lostincalifornia]

32. Agreed. Nothing is certain, that is the lesson from 2000, 2016, and 2024

[blue-wave]

9. We should be following the example

of how Hungary got rid of Orban. They organized in every corner of the country and got their vote out to vote in record numbers. We have been winning off year elections in republican districts by huge margins. Even if the republicans draw district lines favoring themselves, we can win. We just have to have the fight in our bellies and the smarts to organize properly.

That means everyone stepping up to the plate, from top Democratic leadership to me and you and our neighbors organizing other neighbors to get to the polls.

[mr715]

38. Break their kneecaps at the polls.

And then govern with the mandate we earned.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Nothing can stop the Blue Tsunami!

And VA isn’t as bad as some are portraying it.

Mathematically, it’s likely VA Dems will still flip at least 2, and up to 4 seats in the midterms.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/5/8/800035672/community/a-brief-explanation-on-the-va-supreme-court-ruling/

[Blue Owl]

6. Dump hasn't just shot himself in the foot -- he's blown a whole leg off

and continuing to blow the rest of his extremities off one by one, taking the GOP along with him

[beaglelover]

7. Agree 100% with your assessment of the outcome of the midterms.

[Fil1957]

10. I agree. I think people are confusing the redistricting war with the election. The press have been saying the

Last edited Fri May 8, 2026, 06:32 PM - Edit history (1)

Republicans have "won" or have the "edge" in the gerrymander wars. That is all true, but it gives the impression that the Republicans now have the edge in the '26 election, which they don't.

Polymarket which has been a good predictor of election outcomes, now give the Democrats a 77% chance of winning the house, down from 88% a month ago, but still very good for Dems.

As things stand now, this will cost the Democrats seats, but in no way does this change the final outcome. And it's important to remember that no matter in what form the final maps are, they will have zero effect on the federal Senate races.

And let's not forget, unless there are major policy changes, inflation will continue to increase, the price of gas will be higher, and Trump and his Republican cohorts will be even MORE UNPOPULAR in November than they are now.

[Mme. Defarge]

11. I posted this earlier and didn't much of a response.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221227229

[multigraincracker]

12. All the animals in the barn yard are equal.

Pigs are not more equal, but they are greedier.
I recommend the new movie just out, Animal Farm. You will recognize Napoleon.

[regnaD kciN]

29. That movie is supposedly hideously bad...

…and completely changes everything about the novel.

[multigraincracker]

35. Changed the story pretty much.

I wonder if the director altered it to make a statement about our current day.
Wife and I enjoyed it. I rarely go to the movies and I avoid drama so don’t watch many on tv either unless it’s comedy. This is pretty much that. You might not like it.

[crimycarny]

13. Thank you! My anxiety is in overdrivw

Needed this to get me off my catastrophic thinking train...

[mr715]

16. Glad I could help in my own small way

At the end of the day, on election night, we are going to be hearing the people that talk a lot say how this is a blow to Trump! A repudiation! The American people have spoken back! Etc.

There is no universe where we are not winning the House. With that comes a seat at the table.

There are very real but challenging paths to winning the Senate. With that comes real power.

[crimycarny]

14. I also assume that the map redraws in Florida and Tennessee will be challenged in court?

I haven't read anything about legal challenges to the new maps in Florida and Tennessee, but I'm assuming there will be legal challenges??

[mr715]

15. I'm in FL

Some of the seats have been made weaker for the GOP. It was a very dumb move. It'll end up being a wash in a Dem +5% year, and will end up costing them seats in a Dem +10% year, and we've been overperforming by what? 14% basically?

[HeartsCanHope]

28. Mark Elias is already on it. If you can afford to support Democracy Docket it will help.

https://www.democracydocket.com/
You can sign up for free to his substack and he really keeps you informed as to what is going on with the

legal challenges to the gerrymandering.

[crimycarny]

34. Will do

Marc Elias is amazing.

[LymphocyteLover]

17. It's very likely but better not to speak so certainly. The most important thing is we CAN'T let the GOP stay in power,

or our democracy will truly be over.

[mr715]

19. Yeah, but we took a gut punch this morning.

We can emphasize the good odds to help us get off the floor.

[FakeNoose]

18. We still need the independent voters in every state - Democrats can't do this alone

We all need to do everything to convince the indies and once-in-a-while voters that they CAN'T sit this one out!

That means asking everyone we know, in our neighborhoods, at our churches, at the grocery stores, at our kids' schools, EVERYONE we come across in the next 6 months. Their votes are NEEDED and this is SO important.

[mr715]

20. It'll be a good night gerrymander or no.

[Quanto Magnus]

21. I fully expect

more shenanigans to stop that from happen up to suspension of elections. I get the regime technically doesn't have that power, but when has that stopped them yet?.... And with the colluding 6 on SCOTUS, I could see them try to make a ruling that 'allows' Trump to halt elections.

[mr715]

22. There will be elections and they will try stuff, but they'll lose.

[Joinfortmill]

23. I, too, am hopeful.

[yliza]

24. What we're going to lose is several Black congresspeople

All of those states that used to need pre-clearance have gleefully begun redistricting to eliminate those seats. They already gerrymandered Jasmine Crockett out of her seat. This will have a lasting effect,

[edhopper]

25. Don't underestimate

the stupidity of the American voter.

[sarisataka]

26. And Hillary is going to sweep all 50 states

We need to learn, we don't win by predicting; we win by working.
GOTV

[Pototan]

27. I thought ww would win 235 to 238 seats

Now, it may be 231 to 235.

In any case, we will have a comfortable majority.

[republianmushroom]

31. Believe I've heard this before. Yup, I have.

We shall see.

[multigraincracker]

36. $5.00 gas and boots on the ground in the

Middle East may seal the deal.

[mr715]

37. Add a little Hantavirus to the mix.