EIGHT WEEKS TO EMPTY SHELVES. SIXTY DAYS TO FAMINE.

[CousinIT]

https://substack.com/home/post/p-196912511

. . .

If you can hear me, your life depends on what is in this article. I am not being dramatic. I am not overstating this. I am telling you that the data says the United States of America will run out of usable oil by July 4, 2026. Europe will run out this month. The food system that feeds you runs on diesel. Diesel runs out first.

. . .

U.S. distillate inventories (diesel and jet fuel combined) are 11 percent below the five-year average and at the lowest levels since 2005. In Michigan, diesel hit $6.00 per gallon. In the Great Lakes region, it is above $6.00. In California, projections range from $6.00 to $8.90 per gallon depending on how long the crisis continues.

Diesel is not a luxury fuel. Diesel is the blood supply of the American economy. Seventy percent of all agricultural and food products in the United States are transported by truck. Every truck runs on diesel. Every tractor in every field runs on diesel. Every combine harvester runs on diesel. Every refrigerated trailer keeping food cold on its way to your grocery store runs on diesel. Every freight train pulling grain cars runs on diesel.

When diesel becomes scarce, trucks stop moving. When trucks stop moving, food does not get picked up from farms. It does not get delivered to processing plants. It does not get driven to distribution centers. It does not arrive at grocery stores.

This is not inflation. Inflation is when prices go up. This is when the shelves go empty because there is nothing to put on them. There is nothing to put on them because there is no fuel to move the food from where it grows to where you live.

[hedda_foil]

1. This writer isn't an authority on the subject. His opinion is no more valuable than any of us.

[A HERETIC I AM]

7. But but but...He's a "spiritual guy"!

I was a professor, a social justice journalist, a consultant, and eventually a PhD fellow at Pondicherry University in India, where I studied Indian spirituality, cultural studies, and the writings of Tagore. I hold an Honorary Professorship at the School of Ancient Wisdom in India. My academic work in nursing education is used in more than fifty universities. I left academia in 2018 to focus full time on writing, art, and the work you are now reading.

That CLEARLY makes him a competent authority on the international oil distillates market and supply chain.

Doncha think?



https://substack.com/home/post/p-196952936

[honeylady]

45. We import most of our oil from Canada and Mexico.

Small percentage from Middle East. He makes it sound like we only get oil from the Middle East and we will soon starve to death.

I live in California and we are expecting $8.00 per gallon soon.

[in2herbs]

8. There was an article posted a week or so stating that the last tanker of oil had reached LA. That gives US

about 60 days, unless F45 dips into our reserves which can't be replenished because we're out of oil to replenish our reserves.

No oil, no transportation, no food, no feed for stock.

[Bluetus]

41. A bunch of pretty lame economic arguments here.

Let's talk some facts:

1) The US is a net exporter of oil, especially refined oil products.

2) Almost all of our oil stocks and all of our refining capacity is controlled by for-profit corporations

3) Much of this oil supply comes from land ostensibly owned by "the people", but politicians have auctioned it off to multinational Petro companies on the cheap.

4) These selfsame companies make the CHOICE to take OUR oil and sell it in global markets where they can make a higher profit.

In other words, the only "shortage" Americans have is the direct result of these private companies deciding to serve other countries with OUR oil. Likewise, they pollute OUR environment and send the refined output to other countries, leaving us with nothing but pollution.

This is a market-driven, profit-driven operation. There is plenty of supply here, but only if Americans are willing to pay top dollar for it.

If we want to say that this is a potential (and emerging) economic calamity globally, I wouldn't argue with that. But to say that we are going to "run out" of Diesel and have "empty shelves" is a totally ignorant position. That isn't how market economics work. If we are willing to pay $12/gal for Diesel, the shelves will have plenty of goods, but they will cost twice as much.

IOW, this is not about empty shelves as much as it is about hyper-inflation. Unfortunately, that ends up in the same place. The most affluent will get through it, but there will be plenty of suffering (and crime) as the less affluent fight to survive.

This is a potential dystopian hellscape ahead. I am not ready to predict that is a certainty, but I'd say it is likely to get much worse before it gets better.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

58. Yes, the last tanker from the Middle East for California/West Coast

The West Coast is isolated from the larger pipeline network east of the Rockies. The only crude the west coast gets is via local production and tankers. Alaskan oil will still make its way from Valdez to West Coast ports so not all oil has been halted to the West Coast.

[Melon]

21. This is the truth. Our inventories in the US are low

Because we are exporting a lot more jet fuel. The US has turned up the blend at the refinery to send more to Europe. We are actually producing more minus the recently lost refineries in California. We also have oil.
The US will kit run out.
We’d stop exporting before that happened.
We have oil in the US.

This is just not correct.

[FakeNoose]

26. We can always "frack" more oil, since it's still in the ground

In that way we have a greater advantage over the European countries. But the incentive is finally imminent to convert our homes and businesses to electric, either solar or wind-generated power.

[Melon]

31. I agree. Getting away from peak oil is good. But we aren't running out during this mess.

Asia is having issues. South Korea is having a major issue. In that way it does affect California, because they were buying a lot from these areas of Asia. But US overall is in fairly good shape at the base oil level. We are exporting more products due to overseas shortages. Go to Bloomberg/ energy and monitor oil futures. That will give some understanding of how gasoline is moving. But it’s worse overseas.

[ShazzieB]

42. Yes, "we" do ave a huge incentive to convert our homes and businesses to electric, either solar or wind-generated power.

But so many of us are powerless to do anything about that. For example, we live in a large apartment complex. Even though we tenants pay our own utility bills, we have no choice regarding where those commodities come from. These buildings will have solar panels installed on their roofs WHEN AND IF the company that owns the complex decides to make it happen. Since we're paying our own energy bills, they have no financial incentive to spend money on solar panels that could save US a lot of money, but they do have an incentive to keep raising our rent to the point where Mr. B and I can no longer afford to live here.

Meanwhile the state is offering incentives to homeowners if they convert to solar energy, and more and more people seem to be taking at vantage of that, which is great. I see a lot of roofs with solar panels on them when I drive around rown, and I'm alway happy to see them, but it's frustrating to be shut to be shut out from those benefits why my rent amd utility bills continue to climb. It's just one more way corporations and the billionaires who control them exercise power over the less wealthy in the endless pursuit of increasing their profits.

Sorry for the rant. It turns out that the issue of converting to sustainable energy sources is more of a sore point for me than I realized until I started typing this post!

[sheshe2]

59. No apologies needed.

That was a righteous rant.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

50. Supposedly, most of the oil we produce isn't usable in the U.S.

[Melon]

53. That's not entirely true.

If you are referring to light sweet crude, it’s very similar to the Middle East product. Our gulf coast refineries were originally built with Venezuela oil in mind and have additional facilities to process heavier, low grade oil. This doesn’t mean we can’t process light sweet crude in the them. You may lose some efficiency or the blend produces less products like heavy tars, diesel, etc. but we can run them. Countries like S. Korea are at a disadvantage because they can only run light sweet crude. Those are less expensive refineries and now they are short oil. The US is bringing in both heavy Canadian and Venezuela Oil. We also want those heavy oils because they are ~20% cheaper and they don’t have as many homes globally, plus we get more diesel and produce heavies for products like asphalt and roofing tar.

[GiqueCee]

35. One doesn't have to be an "authority"...

Last edited Sat May 9, 2026, 04:24 PM - Edit history (2)

... to know that 2+2=4. That the logical progression of events, triggered by a stupid man's vindictive nature, has put us all in serious jeopardy, as articulated by the writer, is supported by what we see happening before our very eyes.
Our oil reserves are already depleted, much of our domestically produced oil gets sold overseas, and oil-producing countries with whom we once did business won't give us the time of day now, thanks to Trump's belligerent behavior, and his treasonous collusion with Vladimir Putin to destroy America from within isn't helping matters.
The skyrocketing cost of diesel fuel is driving the prices of everything into the stratosphere, and you can damn sure betcha that wages aren't going to rise at a rate commensurate with the rising cost of living, so consumers holding the shitty end of the stick are starting to panic, as well they should.
If you envision a different scenario, we'd love to hear it, but the way things are going at the moment, I think this writer has nailed it, and we should all start preparing for the inevitable economic downturn that will follow. Wait. Cross out "downturn", and make that "cataclysmic disaster", and I think we might be closer to the mark.
Trump is so self-absorbed that he will never entertain any possible solution to this existential crisis that he thinks "isn't a good look for him". He cannot, and will not, let himself be seen as losing. That's a bridge too far for him, no matter what happens as a result of his intransigence.
Divine intervention might pull our asses out of the fire, but I ain't holding my breath for that one.
Have a nice day.

EDIT TO ADD: Mr. Shyrock's original article is much longer, and far more detailed than the synopsis offered here. It is also supported by a multitude of sources who ARE authorities. Given what we know is happening right in front of us, despite this worthless administration's fire hose of lies, it is foolhardy to dismiss the article out of hand. A great many variables are up in the air at any given moment, but preparing for the worst, just in case, is not being Chicken Little, it's being sensible in the face of the very real possibility of economic catastrophe, and it's all because of the worst impulses of a narcissistic sociopath. Failure to include that loose cannon in your calculations is a potentially fatal error in judgement.

[hedda_foil]

61. This country does not rely exclusively on oil from the Persian Gulf.

There will be enormous shortages and extremely high prices for all petroleum products, of course, but the country will not run out of oil to the extent the writer speculates.

[Walleye]

2. Maybe Maga will notice when there's a shortage of cheap beer

[Beartracks]

28. They would somehow blame Biden.

[llmart]

33. Or Mountain Dew

[Metaphorical]

3. It is inflation.

Most inflation is due to supply side shocks initially, then price gouging until warehouse storage costs becomes an issue. This was what happened with the pandemic, its what's about to happen now.

Milton Friedmans contention that inflation is due to increasing the money supply is mostly wrong, but moreover its too simplistic. The connection between money supply and inflation is weak, but every major increase in prices is directly correlated to exogenous shocks and supply chain disruptions.

[bearsfootball516]

4. This is sensationalism.

There's no doubt that the longer the war in Iran goes on, the more it impacts us.

But claiming that we'll be in famine 60 days from now is absurd.

[Jilly_in_VA]

5. This is why

I buy from a farm stand. Fresh and local food. Sure, it's more expensive, but worth it. And why I have a stockpile of dried beans and such. It will keep us going for awhile.

[oasis]

6. July 4th. Smack dab on Trump's celebration day.

[BattleRow]

40. Revolutions are fought by those whose ribs are easily counted .

[Srkdqltr]

9. Please remember back to 1999 if you will. Airplanes will fall out of the skies, elevators will fall, ATMs wont give $$$

Remember?? None of that happened.
This time prices will go up no doubt.

[NBachers]

10. Worth reading

[Melon]

32. Not so much. It's a fantasy.

[sarisataka]

11. Should I panic?

Move to a country that produces oil?

[Qutzupalotl]

14. No. We produce oil.

We are one of the world’s top producers, in fact. I think the OP blogger is being hyperbolic .

[sakabatou]

47. IIRC, we export most of our oil.

[sarisataka]

60. I believe we are the number 1 oil producer

I was being sarcastic. Since we produce oil we are not going to run out of fuel. It may become expensive but the hyperbolic fear of the OP is ridiculous.

[popsdenver]

12. You can bet your sweet ass

that the Republicans have a humongous reserve of Jet Fuel, so their fearless leader can continue his weekly trips on AFOne to his Golf resorts..........

[JoseBalow]

13. Cool story bro

[roamer65]

15. I expect reinstatement of the oil export ban.

Diesel will be very expensive but will be available. We are headed for 1970’s style “odd and even” gasoline rationing again.

[Melon]

43. Why would gasoline be rationed if we have plenty of oil

[swong19104]

16. Buy canned goods now.

And lots of dry pasta.

[eppur_se_muova]

17. The US has been exporting more oil and petroleum products than it imports since August 2021.

Updated Mar 2, 2026
by the USAFacts team

In 2025, the US exported more crude oil and petroleum products than it imported.

Crude oil is a fossil fuel that can be refined into petroleum products such as jet fuel and gasoline. The US used to consistently import more petroleum and crude oil than it exported. But exports exceeded imports starting in October 2019. It’s been a net exporter in all but seven months since then.

In 2025, the US exported 35% more oil than it imported.

Of all petroleum exports, 37% was crude oil.

Of the petroleum and crude oil that the US imported in 2025, the majority was from Canada. The top five exporters to the US were:
Canada (57%)
Mexico (6%)
Saudi Arabia (4%)
Iraq (3%)
Brazil (3%)
The remaining 27% came from 63 other countries, territories, or other areas of special sovereignty.

https://usafacts.org/articles/is-the-us-a-bigger-oil-importer-or-exporter/ (links to datasets to explore)

[slightlv]

25. And this is the reason I pooh-pooh all the hullabaloo

about U.S. oil shortages. Yes, I DO believe we have them and they'll be more frequent - and be a large aspect to the corps gouging us even more than today. But I swear it's manufactured shortages. As long as these companies can sell and export their oil to other countries, rather than first taking care of the needs of the country, then there is no shortage... there is only greed. This time, I feel like a switch has flipped that hasn't been flipped before. I was around in the 70's and 80's. I remember rationing, the long lines, and the "out of gas" signs. But as panicked a time as that was, it didn't feel like today. Maybe it's the fact that trump has devastated everything all at once. Maybe its because the corporations and multi-millionaires just said, "what the heck" and went for broke on raising prices beyond all reason. But a sizeable number of people are really getting angry about all of it - some of whom would have been the ones to just say "coast along, it'll right itself at some point." These same people are getting squeezed just like the rest of us. Like everything greedy and avaricious, trump ate himself straight into the depths of hell with more people than he could have ever thought possible. Even now he can't believe it; won't admit it; refuses to see what's right in front of his eyes. That stupid "secure" ballroom and bunker is evidence to me that deep down he knows he's up the river without a paddle, and more and more people are going to be coming for him with all the guns the R's let them buy and amass for all these years.

If we can have a fair election, the R's have buried themselves for decades, just as in their prior "40 years" in the wilderness. When they screw themselves, they really screw themselves. And this generation, they have *really* screwed themselves. The only thing that will allow them breathing room is to stay on top of the political apparatus and cheat, cheat, cheat. THAT does worry me. Being voted out of office by a majority of voters? I have no doubt it'd happen IF the people still have the right to vote and IF that vote is counted properly.

The wheelers and dealers made sure this was a country dependent on oil and fossil fuels. Our whole mythology is based on that "rugged individualism" of the person getting into his gas-guzzler and going wherever the hell he wants to go. White, xtianist, male identity has been totally swathed in this for decades and decades. So these bros are realizing their "rugged individualism" isn't as tolerated in the world as it once was; they can't get laid; they can't even attract the women they'd not have given a nod towards in days passed. And NOW they can't get gas/oil for their huge tanks of a truck? Talk about blowing a gasket!

[multigraincracker]

18. My alter ADHD will kick in.

From part time hunter/gatherer to full time. The one million squirrels and my air rifle. When they run out, stray, wild pets. Hunger is a motivation to adapt.
If you are worried stock up on books on the subject.

[IronLionZion]

19. Independence Day

The author acts like there are no other oil sources

[ashredux]

20. Well, I don't think we're gonna all starve. But I am going to short the market.😀

[slightlv]

27. No, not everyone will starve... but their will be a LOT of hungry people...

and many, many more near starvation in this country. The very young, the working young, and we elders will die off first from lack of nutritious food. Look at us right now, as the fuel is still flowing... millions of us are hurting to the point of desperation. It's not a matter anymore of filling the tank or filling your belly. It truly is forgoing medicine for food. Stretching things such that one truly is dependent on credit to make it from one SSA check to the next. It's scary, it terrorizes you as you lay in bed trying to figure out how to make do with even less, and has people flirting with suicide just as all the suicide hotlines are defunded and disbanded. I'd lay odds that I'm not the only one desperately wishing to escape to another country that takes better care of its citizens, despite the other side of me that is enraged and swearing they won't take down my country.

[flvegan]

22. 25 Recs.

As of right now. This place intrigues me sometimes.

[IronLionZion]

34. It's clickbait from an opinion blog

I would recommend DUers take a strategic pause before believing this kind of stuff.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

37. We should be thankful this wasn't passed off as LBN. NT

[demmiblue]

39. 52

Same.

[dave99]

23. One thing: The US produces oil itself and SELLs it to other countries

[Gaugamela]

24. WP: "Iran war is crushing Asia's farmers, threatening global food supply"

I don’t subscribe to WP, but for some reason this article isn’t paywalled. It was published this morning.

Prices of fuel and fertilizer are pushing farmers to make irreversible cuts as they enter key planting seasons.

The standoff between President Donald Trump and Iran that has brought shipping to a virtual halt in the Persian Gulf has set off supply chain shocks that are upending lives thousands of miles away in Asia, raising costs for farmers at the start of key planting seasons that will sharply reduce crop yields in the second half of the year and beyond, according to government officials, economists and farming groups.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/05/09/iran-farms-thailand-food/

The problem is compounded by what looks to be a severe El Niño event this year.

Yesterday on NPR’s The Marketplace, they were discussing why the stock market isn’t reacting to the closure of the Strait. The answer offered was that investors don’t know how to price the consequences of the closure. We’ve never seen this situation before. Even the oil embargo of the 70s doesn’t compare.

Trump is running an experiment in the effects of Peak Oil. I’ve seen several qualified commentators on podcasts and on MS NOW state that we’re heading into a crisis. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess, but I could see famine erupting in South Asia and other parts of the world. The U.S. will probably fair better but it won’t be fun. We could see fuel shortages and rationing and 1970s inflation. I’m retired and I worry the stock market will crash.

Of course, the mainstream media isn’t touching this.

[James48]

29. This is false information.

The USA will never “run out” of oil, because the higher the price becomes, the less demand will be.

Yes, it’s gonna be more expensive. But it’s not going to disappear in the USA. Prices could go up another dollar by July. But that’s going to be an economy buster they will slacken demand.

[Keepthesoulalive]

30. I am a prepper but this is nonsense

Mr . Global a gentleman who was in the oil business explains what is going on. What we have is mismanagement, idiots running the country. There will be shortages but the crisis is affordability, even if you have shelves that are fully stocked but people are stretched so thin they cannot afford to buy that is the greater problem. Everything is connected if they can’t buy meat cattle farms suffer and that is the big profit producer for grocery stores. Oh yeah diesel fuel costs are hurting the trucking industry.
If they can’t pass those costs on they go out of business. Cheers

[moreland01]

36. What about the fact that only 20% of the global

Oil supply goes thru the Strait?

And what about the claim that we're the largest oil producer in the world now and can support ourselves (at least that's what trump says)?

[LiberalArkie]

38. There is a difference between Europe and the U.S. Europe has electric trains. We do not.

Freight used to delivered by trains. We use diesel for trains, the developed countries usually do not.

[Melon]

44. What is the overall point? We aren't running out of diesel either.

We are exporting more distillate overseas to support Europe and Asia right now. Diesel is expensive. It’s not short.

[GiqueCee]

46. Did you read the WHOLE article?

[Melon]

48. Yes. That guy is saying hot garbage. Thus my response.

[yaesu]

49. Maybe worse case but I would bet the farm that supply and inflation will have a major impact by July

and this won't be so hard to believe. Even if the epstein wall street insider war were to end today it will take months for supply to catch up.

[bucolic_frolic]

51. Liberation Day

Fasting 2 days a week. Distribution systems hindered like the pandemic but with less fuel.

He's not the only one saying it, many on YouTube post similar analyses.

[pfitz59]

52. $7.00/gal + here in WA

Perhaps vegetable oil?

[Bluestocking]

54. I say bring it on

If that what it takes to wake up the MAGAts and have them finally turn on the Republicans and Trump. Enough already.

[ihaveaquestion]

55. It seems like the comments here are mostly skeptical, but on Substack, they are mostly in agreement.

I'm inclined to believe there will be major consequences when a tipping point is reached, whether that's in eight weeks or whenever. That seems to be the result of most things Drumpf has ever done and why should this be any different?

Some things I think about ...

Don't oil tankers also run on diesel? That seems like a problem for us if we need to get oil from anywhere other than our own oil fields via our own pipelines.

Will we be able to pay for foreign oil at all? I'm thinking the bidding for it will outpace our ability to pay, considering we're being bankrupted by this administration.

Will anyone want to sell us oil after we've screwed up things so badly for everyone else? Won't they want to keep it for themselves or sell it to someone else for way more money?

All things considered, I think none of this will be pretty and I'm just glad it's not winter yet.

[riversedge]

56. "For two months, the world coasted on oil that was already at sea. That floating inventory masked the full scale of what

I was just going to post this




https://markashryock.substack.com/p/eight-weeks-to-empty-shelves-sixty?r=3xnx7f&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

...............THE LAST TANKER

On May 3, 2026, a Hong Kong-flagged tanker called the New Corolla docked at the Port of Long Beach, California. It was carrying two million barrels of Iraqi crude oil loaded at the Port of Basra on February 24, four days before the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed.

That tanker was the last one. The last oil shipment from the Middle East to reach American shores. It arrived, it unloaded, and now it is gone.

The buffer that kept fuel flowing for two months, tankers that were already at sea when the war started, is exhausted. Bryon Stock, director of the Chevron El Segundo refinery, one of the largest refineries on the West Coast, called it a “significant milestone that I’ve not seen or faced in my 27-year career.” His refinery normally receives 20 percent of its crude from the Arab Gulf. That supply is now zero. California imports roughly 60 percent of its crude. Roughly 20 percent of that came from the Middle East. Gone.

For two months, the world coasted on oil that was already at sea. That floating inventory masked the full scale of what was happening. It kept prices high but stable. It kept fuel flowing. It kept people thinking this was just another spike at the pump.

That illusion ended on May 3 in Long Beach.

We are no longer in a price crisis. We are entering a physical shortage. A point where fuel stops being available at any price because there is none left to sell...........................

[FullySupportDems]

57. Yesterday I heard cattle herds haven't been this low since the 1950s

From a video by a prepper. She said if they started rebuilding the herds right now today, it would take until 2028 to return to normal levels. Time will tell. That won't affect everyone. She also warned about garlic, olive oil and of course coffee, because we import those. I hope she's wrong too

[Blaukraut]

62. Lots of angry reactions here on DU to this article

I suspect not everyone read the entire article. This goes beyond oil, and who has the most of it. We also import products from countries that rely on oil and other products delivered to them via the Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer is one of those mentioned in the article. Not to forget LPG, LNG, helium, etc. We can't produce our way out of a shortage of everything connected to crude oil just by keeping what we extract.