Dorner abandon his vehicle because of a broken axle.

[warrior1]

He didn't planned that to happen as well as trying to steal a boat and dropping his id. I don't think he planned anything after he started killing people. IMO is still in Big Bear.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57568535/wanted-ex-lapd-cop-christopher-dorner-shifts-from-being-hunter-to-hunted/

On "CBS This Morning: Saturday," CBS News senior correspondent John Miller reported that Dorner's abandonment of his pickup truck because of a broken axle has prompted authorities to believe that he has shifted "from being the hunter to the hunted."

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Of course it could have never have snapped in a hot fire.

And dropping the ID is truly planting a red herring.

[dkf]

11. He would need you to think this is all part of the grand plan.

Having a huge setback does not fit into the image he is compelled to portray.

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. Nope, I am just watching LAPD dance to his tune

And even Van Zandt said these were red herrings. Here is the big clue...the badge was for a detective. He was a patrolman. Second big clue, when you are dismissed, the pd gets your badge and service sidearm and police equipment, like body armor, back.

Van Zandt is one of the few analysts actually truly qualified to try to read the tea leaves as he did this for a full career with the FBI.

The other things he said also fit.

Right now LAPD and allied agencies are backing down from certain claims they made early on, including the sniper training. He was in the Navy and had riffle training, but he was no SEAL.

What he did have was some survival training.

They have been called for those claims already.

[dkf]

21. Reveling in this isn't very seemly. It's a tragedy all the way around.

Deep inside this is a very very hurt individual. If he kills people or scares people it serves his image of himself, but that is so self defeating.

I guess for some who greatly dislike the LAPD he serves their purpose, but he needed help, not a feeding of his need for power.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. Who's reveling in this?

[kestrel91316]

59. Relax. And consider who said that.

The same poster who has NEVER EVER even once that I know of said anything supportive of Democrats or Democratic policies or Democratic viewpoints.

[nadinbrzezinski]

60. I know.

Why the facepalm.

[AlinPA]

70. What? That reply by nadinbrezinski didn't sound at all like "reveling".

[Fawke Em]

24. In addition, the area where his car was found has a lot of forest

(well, from the Google area maps I've seen. I actually am way across the continent and am not familiar with the area, but I know trees when I see them).

I would hope that someone who had served in the military would understand survival tactics, even if he was trained on the water and not on land.

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. The area has two roads that come in and out.

It is a sky resort

The San bernardino are indeed forested.

[Fawke Em]

45. Thanks. I figured it was a ski resort from the aerial shot I saw.

I live in East Tennessee. We have a lot of similar mountains, ridges and resorts around here, as well.

Tough terrain, but not impossible to survive. Especially for a man in shape and military-trained.

[Yavapai]

67. Two PAVED roads in and out.

I know of two dirt roads out. One through Holcomb Valley to the north (I believe it would require 4 wheel drive) and another to the east down through pioneer town in the desert. The one through Pioneer town can be traversed via two wheel drive downward, but not upward to Big bear. Also, if he left hiking early enough, he could have hiked down through Whitewater canyon. My guess is that there are other hiking trails out (but not sure of this.)

I used to live in the desert east of there and was into 4 wheeling at the time. I also used to live west of big Bear and there are other routes through the San Bernardino Mountains that could have taken him through Lake Arrowhead to Highway 138 and the back way back to L.A.

Believe I read that he lived or had family in the area at one time, so he might be very familiar with the area.

[nadinbrzezinski]

68. Mom has undeveloped land

In big bear

[Yavapai]

72. It's a nice area, when it's not on fire.

There is a lot of nice people living there.

[nadinbrzezinski]

73. You made me laugh

Thanks, fire is one of my beats.

Two months max and I will have to put the fire jacket in the jeep.

[LisaL]

25. He was the one making claims about being a great shot in his manifesto.

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. And the police said yup, yup, yup

Until they were called on it.

[LisaL]

35. Pardon me, he appears to be good enough shot.

He might not be the best, but one doesn't have to be in order to kill people. And due to his military training, he is likely a much better shot than most cops. So WTF do you expect police to say about his shooting skills?

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. That's not the point.

The LAPD has made certain claims tat they have backed down since. The national media s not taking their bs at face value.

Trust me, LAPD is hating life right now, one reason, last night Anderson Cooper went into the claims and clearly was not impressed with a police chief who said he does not remember meeting somebody he was photographed with and gave a challenge coin to. (That was the night before last. Last night he had the DC police chief, retired)

This guy needs to be caught, but...LAPD needs to be investigated. They are independent of each other.

[LisaL]

41. That guy gave the coin to thousands of people.

It doesn't surprise me that he doesn't remember this encounter. And I am not sure what is do you think LAPD said about Dorner's shooting abilities that wasn't the truth?

[nadinbrzezinski]

44. Did thousands of LAPD officers deploy?

No.

Not all of us are impressed with LAPD or take their words at face value.

[Brother Buzz]

53. Five hundred members of the LAPD deployed to Iran and Afghanistan

The Chief gave out a lot of buttons, yet he's accused on DU of being a liar because he doesn't specially remember Dorner.


Oh, wait, you can't read this because you have me on ignore for pointing out that fact

[longship]

13. ^^This^^

How in the hell does one snap an axle anyway? In another thread a DUer indicated that he's seen the same thing in burnt out vehicles.

I am concerned that this guy has had time to plan this out and is going to be leading the police on a wild goose chase. Meanwhile, people may come to harm.

The burnt vehicle seems like an attempt to hide evidence. Dorner burnt it because he no longer needed it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. And...125 officers are playing hide and seek in the mountains.

He's planned this. And as you said, he's driving this bus. This makes people uncomfortable.

[longship]

18. There's a lot of mountain up there.

I just don't think this guy's been run to ground up there.

The burnt vehicle is no coincidence. If the broken axle was indeed nothing but an epiphenomenum of the fire, it could lead the police astray -- big time.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. Which is exactly what Van Zandt said.

He also left a second vehicle in Poway. (Very local story) that was found the day before.

Poway is 20 minutes from where I sit in San Diego County, to the north east of here.

[warrior1]

20. how many cars did he have?

[Fawke Em]

27. Doesn't matter. He could always steal one.

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. You'd think the cops would know

From a search of DMV records.

Perhaps he has a few not to his name at this point.

This is why I don't think he's in the San Bernardino Mountains. When they found the truck he was long gone.

Like with the San Diego swat situation, we had the hardest mobilization in San Diego recent history. He was laughing his ass at that. Hell, SDPD was considering using the channel everybody was using county wide...they just could not push the signal.

Right now he's still driving the bus. He's not a superman, but it's easy to stay ahead of your pursuers if you know the tactics they will use and can predict how they will react. The police will have to act unconventionally, smaller departments are better qualified, in order to break the predictable behavior.

[Warpy]

77. If the truck was on a paved road, the axle was likely broken

by the heat of a fire. It takes a lot to snap an axle and the truck won't travel far once it happens, so where it was found is very important.

Very likely the whole thing is a red herring. He's gone to ground, but most likely not in the Big Bear area.

[farminator3000]

90. i'm not sure of the timeline, but is there a chance he could have gotten a ride from a friend?

as in, when were the burning truck and shootings made public?
could he have used a sympathetic person/accomplice to plant the truck +tracks, and get driven out?

either someone who knew, or didn't know, what he was up to?
does that work logistically/chronologically?

i could see someone...(you?) writing a neat comparison of dorner and eric roberts rudolph- totally opposite goals, same tactics...

and the below from the OP link-
at least they are practicing?


The manhunt didn't appear to bother the majority of tourists intent on enjoying Saturday's perfect winter weather, which made for strikingly odd contrasts: the sound of barking bloodhounds mixed with rap music blaring off the ski slopes; a family with kids strolling by a deputy, who was clad in full tactical gear and practicing his aim on a small snowdrift.

[SWTORFanatic]

69. Snapped axle shaft, broken ring gear tooth, etc all relatively common and possible

[longship]

71. I guess the question is whether it could be caused by a vehicle fire.

If so, Dorner may not have been stranded at Big Bear.

And why the Hell did he go to Big Bear in the first place? Why Big Bear? It's a tourist town, not a good place to avoid detection. It is a good place to set up a diversion, though, which I think this was.

That's why the broken axle may be important, unless he deliberately did that, too. Now, I know I am getting into wild theory, but I thought I would just throw this out here and see what people think.

[beevul]

75. That was me.

What I was getting at was that its possible that an axle tube became separated during the fire. The axle tube is the tube the actual axle rotates inside of. I only mention this because I'm not sure the media knows the difference. Thats only speaking of the rear axle, and they're usually fairly durable in my experience (generally speaking).

Again, it was only speculation on my part, but semi informed, having seen this before.

"How in the hell does one snap an axle anyway?"

A better question, is, how would they know that he did? The wheels were still attatched to the truck, though one or two were a bit melted. That fire burned plenty hot. A broken rear alxle wouldnt be visible - which is why I was speculating that it was possible that the tube became separated...it would be a visual cue. The front axle would also be visible, but a snapped front axle is not generally a vehicle disabling type of damage on a vehicle which has the ability to shut off the 4 wheel drive, as the titan does.

It does make me curious.

[longship]

76. Y'all see how awesome DU is?

Nicely done, my friend. Nicely done.

And thank you.

[HooptieWagon]

80. Might have neen the axle shaft, not housing.

I haven't heard details. Housings are pretty tough. Shafts less so. Shaft could break from agressive driving (especially w/oversize tires), from overloading the vehicle, or from overheating due to loss of lubrication. Depending on the design, wheel may still remain on vehicle and rotate but no longer provide drive. Chevy rears, the wheel comes off. Ford and Dodge, the wheel stays on. He had a Toyota? I don't know (even though I own one)...Ive never had my rearend apart to tell.

[beevul]

81. Right, but the question is, how would they know that?

Axles in that type of housing, are generally either held in with "c" clips, or bolted bearing retainers at the axle flange, and the wheels were attatched to it when it was being hauled onto the trailer - that implies that it was "captured" design - one where the wheel doesn't come off when you snap an axle. At least thats how it appeared to me. The only way they'd know if it snapped a rear axle shaft, based on that, would be to remove the axle, or possible be able to see with the differential cover off - if it snapped very near to the differential. At least thats what i'm thinking.

The truck in question, is a nissan titan.

My speculation, is that it was a front axle they were referring to. I'm thinking this, because its what could have been seen.

But who knows, they may have taken the rear end apart.

Lots of speculation for all of us, and it bet it pales in comparison to the amount of speculation the LAPD is engaged in.

[HooptieWagon]

82. OK, i thought it was a Toyota.

Probably was making noise when they rolled it onto the wrecker. I bought an antique Buick several years ago and had it shipped to me. When we rolled it off the carrier it had an obvious bad rear wheel bearing.

I know all about c-clips and axle retainers. Don't know what Nissan has, but probably not c-clips. Only GM used them as far as I know. I'm sure the truck didn't have full-floating hubs either...thats usually the bigger stuff.

And of course it could be the housing, details are lacking.

[warrior1]

2. well was he going to Mexico or Big Bear

he can't be in two places. He seemed to have plans up to killing innocent people but it doesn't seem much planning after that. My point is, IMO he's still in the mountains.

[Fumesucker]

3. That's an awfully rare failure in a modern pickup truck

[flamingdem]

5. Could he break the axel for effect?

Sounds extremely hard to do that. Forensics could probably tell how it happened.

[slackmaster]

6. It was probably a controlled implosion

Or micro-thermite.

[flamingdem]

9. Ahh the ole micro-thermite

said Maxwell Smart

[Fawke Em]

34. If the vehicle was front-wheel or all-wheel drive, it's not that hard to

break the axle.

Simply take off the axle boot and let the grease dry out and then, "snap!" And it takes no more effort than that. I think it's an artifact from the fire. The fire dried out the boots and snapped the axle.

[Catherina]

66. Just out of imcomprehensible curiosity

how long does it take for the grease to dry out?

This is really more information than I ever wanted to know in life but since I read this far with interest, I'd like to know.

[beevul]

79. If a vehicle tears a CV boot on the front axle...

If a vehicle tears a CV boot on the front axle, or it splits at a seam, what you're looking at resembles this:



On a front wheel drive vehicle, because you're always using the drive axles under power, they get contaminated, start to dry up and wear out, at a fairly fast rate.

On a 4 wheel drive however...depending on how the vehicle is designed, the axle may not turn at all while the vehicle is being used in two wheel drive, and may stay "greased" for some time. Judging by what little I have seen, on the nissan titan, the axle turns with the wheel - meaning that thereis no "locking hub" like there are with some of the heavier 4 wheel drive systems. That means that it would dry out, become contaminated and wear relatively quickly.

The thing is though, its not uncommon for people to drive vehicles with that design, for a long long time, simply using them in two wheel drive. Even with a completely snapped front axle, the nissan titan could still be driven in two wheel drive - thats my best "guesstimate".

I would speculate that its entirely possible that the truck that burned could have had a bad drive axle for months while it was being used, and that significance could be being attributed to the broken axle, which may not be relevant in the way one might first think it would be.


My gut tells me that even if he had broken an axle in such a way that it disabled the vehicle, the last thing he would have done is call attention to it, unless he wanted the attention there, while he went elsewhere. This guy doesn't fear death, but he clearly has an agenda to carry out before he dies, and hes been planning this for weeks if not months.

[Fawke Em]

91. I love you...

I keep reading your opinion on vehicles, this one, in particular, and you seem dead-on accurate.

Next time I have some stupid shit happen, I'm just going to IM you. For example, my cabin air-filter reservoir got clogged by leaf debris in my Mustang and dumped a crap-load of rainwater into the passenger floorboard before I figured out what easy, but idiotic thing was going on.

YOU ROCK!

[beevul]

92. Thank you =D

In truth, its fair to say i've made many mistakes while being a gearhead growing up, and while spending a portion of life too broke to pay someone else to "fix it". Its like with your cabin air filter - sometimes you learn because you have to, you know?

If you ever need to, feel free to pm me. I enjoy helping folks with vehicle problems.

[HooptieWagon]

87. I don't think it has independant suspension.

Most trucks have solid rear axle. Front too, if 4 wheel drive. I don't know about Nissan, but thats probably the case. Breaking axle probably was accident, he left truck of foot, leaving truck loaded with survival gear, ammunition, additional weapons, according to news. Of course, it could also be a ruse to throw cops off trail.

[warrior1]

8. but in this case it happened

still don't think he planned to have a broken axle. Where was he going? The article says that

Authorities said they do not know how long Dorner had been planning the rampage or why he drove to the San Bernardino Mountains. Property records show his mother owns undeveloped land nearby, but a search of the area found no sign of him.

Again he's planning. How is going to carry all the gear and food, etc.? Was there another vehicle? I doubt it.

[socialist_n_TN]

38. I've seen your last sentence posted a lot..........

and I have a little quibble about it. IF he did plan this meticulously, then he might have planted and hidden stashes of food, gear, and weapons in the areas that he planned to be in. That way he wouldn't have to carry it all around. Anyway, that's what I would do if I were going on a rampage.

[BootinUp]

10. Not if you are off-roading me thinks.

[Fumesucker]

14. Eh, the pictures I've seen of the truck didn't look like it was particularly rough terrain

I've driven massively overloaded pickups more than a few times, far more so than that truck could have had in it if he carried the contents off by hand.

If the truck had been far offroad then burning it was absolutely the wrong move if you wanted time to get away, couldn't attract more attention if you tried.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

40. which is more likely?

a) modern axle technology, using the highest quality high carbon tool steel, just like what they use for drive shafts, known for great durability, strength, and immune to bangs and shove more than any other steel, having been successfully used for more than 60 years of pick-up manufacturing and heavy usage without failure.

b) his modern pick up truck had AllStar or some other version of integrated GPS or emergency comm system that, unknown to people, can be used to spy on your conversations, without your permission or knowledge (Read the fine print. you gave them the OK to do so), and when ordered to by the authorities, stop running completely after notifying authorities of your last position.

Modern autos and trucks are little more than Big Brother on a commercial scale.

Here in Illinois, we have an automated toll system. If you miss the toll, you can get online up to a week later and pay it without penalty. If you fail to pay, they have your make, model, and license number which automatically sends you a ticket and a bill.

Yet, while driving a brand new GM truck, (equipped with all the latest gadgets, including that talkie GPS system), two mopes were caught driving on Illinois tolls, with $1.5 million in marijuana in their truck, tucked away and hidden. The reason for the (ahem) police stop? A failure to pay tolls a couple of miles earlier. The cops weren't even present for the offense.

COPS DON'T STOP TOLL OFFENDERS. The automatic system does it for them. Yet, they knew precisely which truck to stop on a pretext - an alleged toll violation. Yeah, I believe that. Just like I believe in Santa Clause.

The chances that his axle broke? laughable. The chances that law enforcement doesn't want you to know how easy it is to track him in a modern vehicle? HUGE, as some moron former GOP presidential candidate would say.

[Fumesucker]

51. They use license reading cameras for those toll systems

Indeed, we have a local sheriff's car around here that has cameras mounted all over it that reads tags all around it as it's driven down the roads, transmits every one it reads to the DMV computer and automatically flags any tag that's not 100% kosher and the officer pulls them over or radios their tag number to another standard unit down the road.

[wandy]

50. Broke an axel? That may show his state of mind....

I don't know how hard that would be to do on a modern 'import' 4 wheel drive.
If you snapped an axel on a good old Dodge power wagon "brush truck" you were either....
a) Trying to out run a brush fire. Or...
b) Doing something so dam foolish you weren't going to be a volunteer fireman no more.

Then and again, brush trucks aren't exactly 'stock'.

[slackmaster]

4. So, is he carrying a .50 caliber rifle, ammunition for it, and shoulder-fired rockets on foot now?

He couldn't have been expecting to have his truck break down.

[flamingdem]

7. Exactly, this gives the lie to the idea of all that weaponry

That was an LAPD report to make people alert about this guy and justify their reign of terror until they get him.

[warrior1]

12. that's was he said he had

He could just be a blowhard about what weaponry he had, but the police have to behave accordingly. To not do so would be suicide.

[Cali_Democrat]

17. LOL. Maybe he had another vehicle

or maybe this guy isn't 20 feet tall like the LAPD is suggesting. There's a reason why the LAPD making him out to be super human and it has to do with justifying their criminal actions.

[LisaL]

23. He doesn't have to be superhuman in order to kill people.

[socialist_n_TN]

39. Yeah, he doesn't. But as the other poster above said.....

the LAPD might have to make him SEEM superhuman in order to justify their "shoot first and stonewall questions" attitude.

[nadinbrzezinski]

42. LAPD does not want Doerner to see the inside of a courtroom

Period.

[socialist_n_TN]

46. Agreed. And he won't......

most likely anyway. There would have to be some VERY public circumstances involved for him to be captured alive. And even then I'm not so sure he wouldn't be shivved in prison or jail.

[nadinbrzezinski]

48. I can see how, another agency affects the arrest and put in another county's jail

LA basin...nope.

[LisaL]

43. He is already accused of killing a cop. Well, two cops, actually, since the fiancee of

the murdered girl also was a cop. I don't think they need to justify anything.

[nadinbrzezinski]

47. So it's ok with you that two detectives, err seven officers

Opened fire on two women on board a blue Tacoma, and had rounds going into five homes, and other vehicles? Oh and at no time the officers gave any verbal commands. All because they thought two short women were one 6.2 beefy black man?

'Cause that is what you are defending.

Compare and contrast with San Diego police agencies that handled four hot stops of suspects that were driving vehicles that matched the wanted vehicle, (Gray Nissan Titan) and who matched the suspect's description. People were scared shitless but no round was discharged and nobody got hurt.

LAPD is not helping with shit like this.

[frylock]

61. not a fan of SDPD, but that's how you handle the situation..

it's patently obvious that LAPD does not want this guy talking.

[nadinbrzezinski]

63. Not a fan either

But when even the border patrol does it right...

[socialist_n_TN]

49. You don't think they would need to justify a very public killing?.....

What if Dorner were surrendering naked with cameras rolling? Also, are you saying the LAPD doesn't need to justify shooting up the old lady and her daughter's truck? I personally think there's a LOT of shit that the LAPD will have to justify before this is over. Or I should say, SHOULD have to justify. Whether they WILL attempt to do so or not is a legitimate question.

[LisaL]

52. I don't believe Dorner plans to surrender.

Do you?

[Cali_Democrat]

54. It doesn't matter what people believe

You don't open fire on innocent people with no questions asked....pumping 40+ bullets into their truck. These women were delivering newspapers and looked nothing like Dorner. Those are the criminal actions I was referring to.

If he does surrender, you don't try to kill him anyway. That would also be criminal.

All indications up to this point are that law enforcement wants to execute him and innocent people are being shot up. That is completely unacceptable and, yes, it's criminal.

[LisaL]

55. Of course they shouldn't open fire on innocent people with no questions asked.

Jeez.

[nadinbrzezinski]

56. But they have.

[LisaL]

57. Thankfully they managed not to kill anyone.

[nadinbrzezinski]

58. Cause they were the lousiest shots I have seen

But not for lack of trying.

And the elderly woman, last I checked, was in ICU.

[kestrel91316]

64. It sure wasn't for lack of trying, either.

The fact that they were trying to kill whoever was in the pickup is grounds for serious criminal charges right there.

[LisaL]

22. He could have easily stolen another car by now.

He might be long gone from that area.

[frylock]

62. he very well may have had another vehicle up there in the mountains..

moved all his gear to the new vehicle and torched the truck.

[warrior1]

26. I'm sure the police would have put that info out

someone would have reported a missing car or if someone had been carjacked. They probably done a vehicle search on him with DMV and would know what cars he owned and from him his family cars he had access too.

[LisaL]

30. They might not know the car is missing.

Apparently people leave their cars down there for extended periods of time.

[Fumesucker]

37. Buying a car under an assumed name wouldn't be that hard

Getting it registered might be more problematic but all you need is money to buy a used car, undocumented aliens do it every day in America.

[kestrel91316]

65. Two words: Nevada corporation. He does have a residence in NV.

[Little Star]

33. "from being the hunter to the hunted" media using his ego to smoke him out possibly?

[cherokeeprogressive]

74. That's odd because it's a well-maintained, fairly smooth road.

I don't think even the roughest parts of it would be enough to break an axle, unless someone hit them at say, 60mph but you can't go that fast on it; it's too curvy.

[HooptieWagon]

84. He could have overloaded the truck,

If he had a bunch of survival supplies. Or if the wheel spun and suddenly got traction, that would snap an axle...especially if it had oversized tires.

[ChazII]

83. Dorner reminds me of Robert Fisher

from AZ. Smart, murdered others and were able to blend into the back ground. (For what it's worth, Fisher lived one block away and his children rode the school bus with my son.)

[HooptieWagon]

85. Update:

Authorities think the axle broke when he briefly lost control. Truck was loaded with weapons and survival gear.
http://www.laobserved.com/archive/2013/02/dorners_truck_was_disable.php
Another report, NBC10?, says there were footprints leading away from vehicle, quotes cops saying he might have up to 30 weapons.

Thoughts. As I surmised above, truck was heavily loaded, probably lost traction, regained traction suddenly which snapped the axle shaft. He didn't have a vehicle stashed nearby. He left on foot, burned what he couldn't carry. No possible way he carried 30 weapons, thats hundreds of pounds.. Footprints probably covered with snow now. Possibly called someone to pick him up... with gear and supplies left in truck he may have decided not to chance staying in open on mountain in winter weather. Also possible whole thing was staged to throw cops off his trail... make them think he was in mountains, but he headed elsewhere. NBC10 story also said security at Mexico border very tight. I think a friend is driving him on I-10, probably drop him off in a remote part of Texas. There's nothing there, plenty of places to hide.

[jazzimov]

86. And then set it on fire because....

why?

[HooptieWagon]

88. Either he wanted it found,

because he would be long gone and wanted cops thinking he was on foot in mountains so they would expend manpower there. Or, he had to leave behind items in truck he didn't want found.

[speedkills]

93. Set it on fire.....

To make it harder to track him by dogs.

[warrior1]

89. Axle broke not by the fire, they think.

So not planned by Dorner.