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FrodosPet

(5,169 posts)
Thu Mar 14, 2013, 11:43 PM Mar 2013

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) :: IAEA and Iran

Recently, I was scolded online for using a (probably misunderstood) statement from the IAEA regarding Iran and nuclear weapons.

I have decided to get my information from "the horse's mouth", and I invite everyone else concerned about this grave topic to do the same.

http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iaeairan/index.shtml

Still trying to figure out what's correct. My suspicion is that the President, VP, and Secretary of State knows a lot more about this subject than we do, so I am trusting their judgment on this.

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International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) :: IAEA and Iran (Original Post) FrodosPet Mar 2013 OP
IAEA Board Report, 21 February 2013 FrodosPet Mar 2013 #1
comment by someone who seems to know what he is talking about reorg Mar 2013 #3
Thank you for the input FrodosPet Mar 2013 #4
I think Mohamed ElBaradei said that reorg Mar 2013 #5
I do not trust this agency or the White House on this Demo_Chris Mar 2013 #2

FrodosPet

(5,169 posts)
1. IAEA Board Report, 21 February 2013
Fri Mar 15, 2013, 02:47 AM
Mar 2013

Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Report by the Director General

excerpt - full report w/ footnotes available at http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2013/gov2013-6.pdf

H. Possible Military Dimensions

47. Previous reports by the Director General have identified outstanding issues related to possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme and actions required of Iran to resolve these. Since 2002, the Agency has become increasingly concerned about the possible existence in Iran of undisclosed nuclear related activities involving military related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile. Iran has dismissed the Agency’s concerns, largely on the grounds that Iran considers them to be based on unfounded allegations.

48. The Annex to the Director General’s November 2011 report (GOV/2011/65) provided a detailed analysis of the information available to the Agency, indicating that Iran has carried out activities that are relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device. This information is assessed by the Agency to be, overall, credible. Since November 2011, the Agency has obtained more information which further corroborates the analysis contained in the aforementioned Annex.

49. In resolution 1929 (2010), the Security Council reaffirmed Iran’s obligations to take the steps required by the Board of Governors in its resolutions GOV/2006/14 and GOV/2009/82, and to cooperate fully with the Agency on all outstanding issues, particularly those which give rise to concerns about the possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme, including by providing access without delay to all sites, equipment, persons and documents requested by the Agency. As indicated in Section B above, since the publication of the Director General’s November 2011 report, although the Board has adopted two resolutions addressing the urgent need to resolve outstanding issues regarding the Iranian nuclear programme, including those which need to be clarified to exclude the existence of possible military dimensions, it has not been possible to finalize the structured approach document or to begin substantive work in this regard.

50. Parchin: As stated in the Annex to the Director General’s November 2011 report, information provided to the Agency by Member States indicates that Iran constructed a large explosives containment vessel in which to conduct hydrodynamic experiments; such experiments would be strong indicators of possible nuclear weapon development. The information also indicates that the containment vessel was installed at the Parchin site in 2000. The location at the Parchin site of the vessel was only identified in March 2011, and the Agency notified Iran of that location in January 2012.

51. As previously reported, satellite imagery available to the Agency for the period from February 2005 to January 2012 shows virtually no activity at or near the building housing the containment vessel (chamber building). Since the Agency’s first request for access to this location, however, satellite imagery shows that extensive activities and resultant changes have taken place at this location. The Agency has reiterated during each round of talks with Iran its request for access to the location at the Parchin site, but Iran has not acceded to that request.

52. Among the most significant developments observed by the Agency at this location since the Director General’s report in November 2012 are:

o Reinstatement of some of the chamber building’s features (e.g. wall panels and exhaust piping);
o Alterations to the roofs of the chamber building and the other large building;
o Dismantlement and reconstruction of the annex to the other large building;
o Construction of one small building at the same place where a building of similar size had previously been demolished;
o Spreading, levelling and compacting of another layer of material over a large area; and
o Installation of a fence that divides the location into two areas.

53. As previously reported, Iran has stated that the allegation of nuclear activities at the Parchin site is “baseless” and that “the recent activities claimed to be conducted in the vicinity of the location of interest to the Agency, has nothing to do with specified location by the Agency”. To date, Iran has only provided an explanation for the soil displacement by trucks, which it stated was “due to constructing the Parchin new road”.

54. In light of the extensive activities that have been, and continue to be, undertaken by Iran at the aforementioned location on the Parchin site, when the Agency gains access to the location, its ability to conduct effective verification will have been seriously undermined. While the Agency continues to assess that it is necessary to have access to this location without further delay, it is essential that Iran also provide without further delay substantive answers to the Agency’s detailed questions regarding the Parchin site and the foreign expert, as requested by the Agency in February 2012.

reorg

(3,317 posts)
3. comment by someone who seems to know what he is talking about
Fri Mar 15, 2013, 04:25 AM
Mar 2013
The IAEA Applies Incorrect Standards, Exceeding its Legal Mandate and Acting Ultra Vires Regarding Iran
September 13, 2012 | Author: Dan Joyner

The other day I was reading over the most recent IAEA Director General’s (DG’s) report to the IAEA Board of Governors (BOG) on implementation of safeguards in Iran. The report was submitted on 8/30/12 (GOV/2012/37). I had on my mind some comments and queries that Cyrus Safdari had kindly sent to me. The DG’s report includes the following paragraph in its summary section, which is very similar in language to the summary statements that have been included in other DG reports on Iran over the past approximately six years – though the relevant language has evolved significantly over that time and become more consolidated and conclusory:

While the Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at the nuclear facilities and LOFs declared by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement, as Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation, including by not implementing its Additional Protocol, the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.

So here the DG begins by saying that the IAEA can verify that all declared, safeguarded nuclear material in Iran has not been diverted to non-peaceful use. This mandate for investigation by the IAEA, and the standard of assessment for this investigation, come directly from Iran’s INFCIRC/153 comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA), in Article II, which reads:

The Agency shall have the right and the obligation to ensure that safeguards will be applied, in accordance with the terms of this Agreement, on all source or special fissionable material in all peaceful nuclear activities within the territory of Iran, under its jurisdiction or carried out under its control anywhere, for the exclusive purpose of verifying that such material is not diverted to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.

But the DG’s report doesn’t stop there. It continues on to then apply two separate and additional legal standards and make two additional assessments based upon them. ... (long article)


see also:
Iran and the bomb: The legal standards of the IAEA
IAEA SAFEGUARDS ADDITIONAL PROTOCOL


New IAEA DG report on Iran Still Incorrect on the Legal Mandate of the IAEA
March 11, 2013 | Author: Dan Joyner

The February 21, 2013 IAEA Director General’s report on implementation of safeguards in Iran provides a good opportunity to revisit one of the points I made in a blog post last year, which has been fairly widely discussed and which was the subject of an ISIS report (read hatchet job) by David Albright and some of his friends, only one of whom is a lawyer (I responded to their report previously here). The point in question is the incorrectness of the IAEA Director General’s (and by extension the IAEA Office of Legal Affairs’) understanding of the scope and content of the IAEA’s legal mandate to investigate and assess compliance of states parties to INFCIRC/153 Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements with the IAEA. (See also my contributions to a roundtable on this question published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

... (continued)

FrodosPet

(5,169 posts)
4. Thank you for the input
Fri Mar 15, 2013, 04:46 AM
Mar 2013

I am still a complete novice to this topic. I really only started paying close attention recently when the President, the Vice President, and the Sec. Of State started talking about it like it was a real issue.

Personally, none of these gentlemen strike me as bloodthirsty warmongers, or in any way reckless. I decided if they are taking this seriously, then perhaps we all need to learn more about what's going on.

People (including yours truly) have been misquoting the IAEA as saying Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons. I decided to go to the source. By the same token, I appreciate any educated, legitimate rebuttals to their facts and positions regarding Iran.

reorg

(3,317 posts)
5. I think Mohamed ElBaradei said that
Fri Mar 15, 2013, 05:18 AM
Mar 2013

when he was still the director of the IAEA:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/no-evidence-iran-is-making-nuclear-weapons-elbaradei/2007/10/29/1193618794445.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7085213.stm

The current reports under the new management still don't say that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. But now the IAEA insists on inspecting certain military sites in order to be able to positively determine that they don't.

Such inspections are not really covered by the NPT Safeguards Agreement, though, according to the professor I cited who makes a very elaborate and IMVHO convincing argument.

 

Demo_Chris

(6,234 posts)
2. I do not trust this agency or the White House on this
Fri Mar 15, 2013, 03:12 AM
Mar 2013

Nor, frankly, am I concerned in the least about a nuclear Iran. The two scariest countries on the planet, essentially the two you would least like to have nuclear weapons -- North Korea and Pakistan -- already have them. I suspect Iran would love to have one as well, if only for self defense against us.

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