If The Election Were Held Today, The GOP Could Lose The House

[babylonsister]

http://www.nationalmemo.com/if-the-election-were-held-today-the-gop-could-lose-the-house/

If The Election Were Held Today, The GOP Could Lose The House
May 23rd, 2013 5:06 pm @LOLGOP


You know by now that the Republican Party used their 2010 landslide to gerrymander an electoral map that would make it nearly impossible for them to lose the House of Representatives until 2022. Well, the impossible could happen if the GOP doesn’t change direction.

Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by a margin of 8 percent, according to a new Washington Post poll of registered voters.

That’s higher than the 7 percent-plus margin in the popular vote that ThinkProgress estimated Democrats would need to take back the House:

snip//

That the president’s party has any chance of even picking up seats is a historical anomaly and a sign that the polls that continue to show Americans leaving the Republican Party are a real problem for Speaker Boehner and his caucus — especially on the issue of guns.

An overwhelming 67 percent say Congress was wrong to kill background check expansion with 64 percent blaming Congressional Republicans for the defeat of the bill. A solid majority, 53 percent, say they could not support a candidate who voted against background checks, even if they agree on all other issues.

[Chipper Chat]

1. Democrats will have to get out the vote.

The enemy is conservative churches especially Southern Baptist, Church of God, and Pentecostal. Those preachers mandate their congregations vote republican and have van drivers ready to take them to the polls. These voters outweigh the slim turnout by democrats in off-year elections and those right-wing Tea Party worms get elected to office.

[randome]

2. Even that may change, though.

The Catholic Church says that even atheists can go to Heaven. That's a sign of the times, I think. There may be a ripple effect among other religions.

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[modrepub]

3. Gerrymandering in PA

I only wish this were true. In PA repubs took 13 of 18 house seats even though they received less than 50% of the vote. They redrew the districts around Philly and Pittsburgh to concentrate the dem vote in a couple of districts then took most of the suburban districts. It's an ugly map and it's underhanded but apparently legal.

[link:http://www.politicspa.com/politicos-react-to-voter-id-ruling/39698/pennsylvania-congressional-districts/|

[brooklynite]

4. Dems lked in the generic poll last time

...and people were equally disenchanted with Congress...just not their member.

[LonePirate]

5. That WaPo probably uses an equitable sampling of parties and districts which doesn't reflect reality

Many Democratic held districts are 80-90%+ Democratic while many Republican districts are <=60% Republican.

That 7 point edge is going to need to reach double digits if not double entirely for us to retake the House in 2014. As it stands now, I think we may pick up a handful of seats (3-6); but Republicans will still control the House and Obama will face more gridlock in his final two years in office.

[earthside]

6. If Pres. Obama doesn't ...

... do something dumb like still pursue some 'grand bargain' that cuts Social Security and/or Medicare or start a war with Iran, my prediction is that 2014 could be an historic election with Democrats nearly running the board on the Repuglicans.

The Tea-publicans and gun worshippers are on a trajectory of self-destruction ... and they are so caught inside the Fox 'News' bubble they don't even know it!

I have casual friends who are registered Repuglicans who are simply in dismay over the rhetoric coming out of the mouths of their party's 'leaders'.

So, I certainly think that even with the gerrymandering the Repuglicans did in 2010 the Democrats could and probably will take back the U.S. House and will likely defeat a lot of those 2010 Tea Party governors, too.