Top Republican at CPAC: Jeb Bush could emerge as nominee at a brokered convention

[stockholmer]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2099635/Jeb-Bush-emerge-GOP-nominee-brokered-convention-says-Republican.html


Al Cardenas, head of the American Conservative Union, has said that Republican turmoil might lead to a brokered convention in which Jeb Bush, former Florida governor, would emerge as a “possible alternative” party nominee.

Mr Cardenas, who is running this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a gathering in Washington of some 10,000 conservatives, told MailOnline that it was not certain that one of the four current Republican candidates would emerge victorious.
His comments came as Republicans fretted publicly about the perceived weaknesses of Mitt Romney, the establishment choice and frontrunner, Rick Santorum, surprise winner in three states on Tuesday, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.

Jeb Bush, former Florida governor and younger brother of President George W. Bush, has repeatedly said he will not run in 2012. He is one of a number of senior figures who disappointed activists and party officials alike by staying on the sidelines.
“We'll know more in the next few weeks,” said Mr Cardenas. “The pressure’s already been on Mitt Romney to close the sale... and he hasn’t.” A split verdict on “Super Tuesday” on March 6th, when 10 states vote, could lead to a surprise at the Republican convention in Tampa in August, he suggested.

Just over an hour after his interview with MailOnline, Mr Cardenas took to the CPAC stage to introduce Mr Romney, who sought to allay the fears of activists, who view him as a moderate or changeling, using the words “conservative” or “conservatism” some 24 times.
The last time a Republican nomination battle went to the party convention was in 1976, when President Gerald Ford assembled a coalition of delegates to defeat Ronald Reagan at the first ballot.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/how-a-brokered-convention-would-work/2012/01/30/gIQAKTcAfQ_blog.html

How a brokered convention would work

If it did happen, here’s how it would work.

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At each caucus or primary, voters are actually choosing delegates to the national convention who have pledged themselves to a candidate. At the Republican convention in Tampa, the 2,286 delegates will vote. In recent history, conventions are basically a meaningless tradition in which only one ballot is held, choosing a nominee that has already been decided in the primaries.

But in theory, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney could fail to garner the 1,144 delegates needed to assure victory. Right now he only has 37 delegates, including party officials who get an automatic vote. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich could refuse to drop out (he says he’s in for the long haul).

If there was a convention-floor fight, multiple ballots would be taken until one candidate got a majority. Romney’s supporters would have to attempt to wrangle delegates away from other candidates. Other candidates could also attempt to consolidate support. A “dark horse” candidate (for example, former Florida governor Jeb Bush) could emerge late in the primary process, or even at the convention itself, and still win. There are 412 unpledged delegates, with an additional 65 that can be unbound depending on conventions in Minnesota and Louisiana, says political scientist Josh Putnam http://frontloading.blogspot.com/ .

That includes both “automatic” delegates (similar to the Democratic “superdelegates” who got so much attention in 2008 but fewer in number) and delegates from nonbinding caucus states. Their votes are basically up for grabs outside the state-by-state process. Very few of the automatic delegates have committed to a candidate (those that have tend to favor Romney.) In the event of a tie between Romney and Gingrich, these delegates could the deciding votes. It the delegate share is divided between three or four candidates, it would get more complicated.


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[alcibiades_mystery]

1. I don't know why people are "scared" of this

It would be as much a boon for Obama as Santorum getting the nod.

Obama would love to run against a Bush.

[Redstate Bluegirl]

8. Agree

2 soon 4 a guy named Bush.

[Hawkowl]

13. Nobody steals and murders better than the Bush Family

THAT is why we are afraid. Gramps was CIA director and is STILL the only former president who insists on getting his daily briefing. Shrub stole Florida in 2000 and then stole Ohio in 2004.

The Bush's have made the US into a fascist police state which Obama has had little effect on.

AND YOU ASK WHY WE ARE AFRAID? You don't think Karl Rove won't steal one last election?

Jeb Bush will kick Obama's ass. Of course it won't be a fair fight, or even legal. However, that would be irony biting Mr. Obama in the ass for not investigating election fraud and Bush war crimes.

We should all be out there routing for Romney to win the nomination because he can't win the general.

[otohara]

2. He won't do it

The Bushes don't want to unseat first AA POTUS!

[Kelvin Mace]

3. Except that "brokered" conventions cannot happen anymore

Delegates cannot be compelled to vote for a particular candidate, so their votes are not "up for grabs".

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/01/11/why-the-gop-will-not-have-a-brokered-convention.html

[JNelson6563]

4. Best show I've seen in a long time.

Looks like it's going to keep getting better.

[DonCoquixote]

5. TAMPA

Remember, Tampa is Jeb's home base. This is in the works, already GOP locals are bragging about in the papers and on talk radio. This is nothing more than the way for the Bushes to steal another election, since they know they cannot win it. Go to the op eds of even liberal papers like the Tampa Bay Times, and you have people bragging about how they will shoot, kill and jail OWS, even though our OWS is in private park (because it got kicked out of everywhere else.)

Make no mistake, there WILL be violence, and that violence will be used by the GOP to seem strong, especially by Jeb Bush. Oddly enough, the only one that can ruin it for jeb is the Tea party governor, Rick Scott, who might support a Newt or Rick.

[Broderick]

6. We were all shocked when Bush came close enough to steal it

and then won again. Made you scratch your head.

I don't want any Bush near the whitehouse, and having a chance to steal it.

[treestar]

7. They would lose their base of people who are active

Everyone who worked or campaigned for Mittens, Ricky or others would be furious. I would be. Why should someone else just walk into it with no work? Par for the course for a Bush, but someone has to resent that.

[LiberalEsto]

9. I've been predicting this all along

Jeb with the shoplifting wife and the drug-addicted daughter.
Family values, indeed.

[Kingofalldems]

14. Me too. Great minds think alike.

[grasswire]

10. Bring it on, Bushies

Because I have it on impeccable authority that two bimbo eruptions lie in wait should Jeb make that move.

[Politicalboi]

11. These fools would vote for

Little Boots again if he were to run against Obama. So Jeb wouldn't have too big a problem IMO. Jeb Bush scares me a lot. Mostly of election theft.

[Initech]

12. That's scary. Last thing we need is the BFEE back in power.