Hye, IMF... We are in a global and globalized lost decade+

[cthulu2016]

The good news: We, the world, reached stability on the downside in 2008-2009 in a Greater Depression preventing way with very aggressive monetary policy and financial institution bail-outs and some half-assed luke-warm stimulus.

The bad news: EVERYTHING ELSE. Year after year after year, THIS year is revised downward, but NEXT year will be better. The mainstream analysis of the world economy has been in Iraq War mode for years... remember the "Friedman unit"? "Yes, it will be bad for the next six months, but then it's unicorn ponies going forward."

The entire economic first world suffered economic heart failure and we got the oxygen mask on, but never applied the defibrillator. The only solution was massive stimulus. Instead we did, and have done, just enough to keep the comatose victim breathing while waiting for a supernatural miracle.

Lost. Decade. Plus. Absent some future spasm of global fiscal stimulus, or some systemic inflation (not just some commodity spikes and abuse of monopoly pricing in health care) that's what we are in for.

And that was plain (to some) from the start of this... that things would only get better from the "new normal" when we made them better.

And the optimism that some deus ex machina would, of course, appear helped allow the development/growth of austerity-minded budget hawks and inflation/bond-bubble ranters concerned with the strains the coming spontaneous resurgence would put on the economy! It like a peasant thinking her biggest problem is whether her hut is big enough to hold all the gold she's bound to get any day now, and putting her kids on the street to make room for the gold.

In proper Friedman Unit fashion, the IMF has lowered their predictions for the short term, while predicting some improvement medium term, for the umpteenth time.

And to anyone who thinks unemployment in the USA is getting much better (rather than that the USA is in a period of diminishing expectations where the self-identified work force is shrinking) should ponder how an economy with high unemployment growing at less than 2% will generate huge numbers of jobs above population trend. Short answer: It cannot. That's not a crystal ball, it's arithmetic.

The pressing question becomes, what happens when China and India roll over? I don't know, but I do know that the sane pessimists (not the survivalist doomsayers) have been prescient so far.

[randome]

1. We're moving forward only with momentum now.

A true national disaster could sink us entirely. Infrastructure is crumbling, wages are stagnant, job growth stagnant. Climate change alone could sink us if it takes a turn for the worse.

And the GOP stops all meaningful work in the House so they can rail about health care and Benghazi.

We could be living in Paradise right now if politicians would do actual work.

[hr]
[font color="blue"][center]The truth doesn’t always set you free.
Sometimes it builds a bigger cage around the one you’re already in.[/center][/font]
[hr]

[MannyGoldstein]

2. But... more-overpriced health care for more people!

More homeless and hungry kids? Whatever.

[tridim]

7. That must mean the refund check my insurance company sent me two weeks ago is fake.

The funds deposited in my bank account without a hitch. Hmmm.. Seems like my insurance premiums are falling specifically due to the ACA. Tell me more MannyWrongstein!!!!11

And why do you think giving poor families access to subsidized, affordable healthcare is a bad thing?

[MannyGoldstein]

8. What percentage of your yearly premium was that check?

Our healthcare is the most expensive in the world by miles, our number one cause of bankruptcy.

Instead of tackling the problem, we subsidize insurance companies. A solution that you love, no doubt.

[GeorgeGist]

3. Not saying you're wrong but ...

You might wanna work on it.

It reads like propaganda.

Lots of rhetoric but few hard facts to back it up.


A trivial example: I have no idea what a "Friedman unit" is, and you don't provide a reference.

[Egalitarian Thug]

4. You might want to look into the substance, rather than focusing on what you don't like.

The point the OP is making is far too large to present in one post trolled by functionally illiterate boobs that believe there is some correlation between their checking accounts and the national budget of the United States.

Remember that TLDR could be the official motto of DU.

[cthulu2016]

5. Op-ed writer Tom Friedman was pro-Iraq War and

as it degenerated into civil war and farce he wrote a series of pieces about how it would be chaos for the next six months, then turn around. And he wrote the same op-ed over and over for 5 years. It was always going to be hell on Earth for six months, then turn around.

So the lefty snark-o-sphere started referring to the Friedman Unit as the span of time before everything magically turned around.

Since 2008 the IMF and others have been predicting bad news in the short-term but improvement next year. Like, "2% in 2007 but 4% in 2008." Then, at the end of 2007 they would downgrade 2008 and make it "2% in 2008, but 4% in 2009." And so on. So it comes to resemble the way the Iraq War was always going to turn around soon despite looking bad today.


As for facts and figures, this OP is not a comprehensive picture of the global economy. That's a fair cop. I am writing about my specific frustration in the IMF again revising their former global growth predictions downward again and again as time catches up with them.

[Fumesucker]

6. A Friedman Unit is six months

So named after Thomas Friedman, the pundit who predicted "the next six months are critical" in Iraq for about five years.

The World Is Flat indeed.

[Javaman]

9. Just one decade?

My aren't you hopeful.

[cthulu2016]

10. Hence the "+"

[Javaman]

12. Curses! Foiled again!

missed the "+"

[NoOneMan]

11. There is the possibility is could be forever

Welcome to the new normal.

OTOH, a large scale die-off would provide an opportunity for a paradigm shift and room for growth. Thats hope