Frum: GOP's worst nightmare -- a contested convention

[BumRushDaShow]

<snip>

Journalists like to speculate about "brokered conventions": the kind of conventions we had 50 and 100 years ago, where party bosses chose presidential nominees in smoke-filled rooms. But you can't have a "brokered convention" in a system where there are no "brokers."

<snip>

The big change in American politics over the past two decades has been the decline of followership. Party members expect the party to serve them -- one major reason that both parties have drifted to the ideological extremes since the 1970s.

That expectation would only be intensified and concentrated in a party convention with Fox News and talk radio whipping and riling the delegates into angry emotionalism.

<snip>

If Romney fails to win the primaries over the next few months, brace yourself: not for a replay of 1920, when Republican bosses made their coldly calculated deal, but for a replay of 1896, when the Democratic Convention went wild for William Jennings Bryan after one thrilling speech. Of course, Bryan went on to lose in a landslide.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/20/opinion/frum-gop-nomination/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

[HowHasItComeToThis]

1. HA HA HA ROVE HAS NO NEW OR GOOD IDEAS SO ALL HE CAN DO IS TRASH DEMOCRATS

LET THE GAMES BEGIN

[rhett o rick]

3. Dont underestimate the oligarchs. nm

[rhett o rick]

2. I dont think this chaos is a happy accident. I think it may well be planned.

If there is chaos in the convention and Jeb steps forward, the R-con followers will view him as a savior and he will unite the party. He would be gaining the nomination w/o the months of scrutiny the others had to go thru.

Never underestimate your enemy.

[WCGreen]

4. Why does anyone think Bush could beat Obama....

[jeff47]

5. My guess is they need something to worry about

Someone named "Bush" can not win in 2012. Nor 2016. It's gonna take until at least 2020 to rewrite history enough to make a Bush palatable.

[rhett o rick]

7. I didnt say a word about Bush defeating Obama. I was guessing what the strategy of the R-cons might

be. Why would you try to put words in my mouth.

If Bush could get all R-con's behind him, the race might be close enough to steal.

We underestimated the R-oligarchs in 2000 and 2004. I am just sayin.

What's your opinion?

[WCGreen]

20. I never said you think Bush could beat Obama...

I was refering to everyone who is pushing this believes that Bush could beat Obama....

Not this time, not the way shrub went out...

[rhett o rick]

21. Sorry, I got confused. I hope you are correct. nm

[quakerboy]

23. Premier Election Solutions and SCOTUS

Why does anyone think that this will be a fair or legitimate election?

[BumRushDaShow]

6. Oddly, I don't think there will be chaos at their convention

Those who are delegates are generally more interested in politics and will put up a good front for the Party.

IMHO, it will be the GOP electorate who will be in chaos...

They say "all politics is local" (or at least the great politician Tip O'Neill correctly stated that observation) and regardless of what happens at the convention, the GOP's struggle will be to get their electorate out to vote (including for their local representatives). Period.

[Chan790]

8. I think Jebbie would get trounced in the GE in that case.

He's pally-pal with FL's most-corrupt governor in my lifetime and FL's favored-son junior Senator who it seems might not be squeaky-clean either.

So I think you might be right that this is chaos-by-design but they've got to have a better plan than another Bush. Hell if they want to get beaten that badly and start pulling skeletons from closets and corrupt houses of cards down on their own heads they might as well run Neil instead.

Really I think it was chaos by design but it got away from them...all of their step-in saviors are fairly soiled now. Walker's probably not going to make it to November without getting indicted. Scott's about the same. Christie seems to have finally evoked the ire of Garden Staters. Jeb's a Bush. Who else? Jindal: dimwit. Kasich: loser. Palin: vapid unlikable twit. We're pretty far down the bench at this point unless they want to start looking at moderate-populists whose appeal is their distance from the base: Pataki or the such?

[rhett o rick]

19. So you are saying that if Jeb became the candidate, R-con authoritarian followers would vote for

Obama? I dont think so. They will vote for anyone but Obama. Besides, the R-con followers dont give a shite about corruption in their own party.

[yurbud]

14. they are good at capitalizing on chaos: look at the governor recall in California

they knew they couldn't get a Republican acceptable to general election voters through the primaries, so they recalled the Democratic governor, put up Schwarzenegger, and instead of facing GOP primary voters, he faced what amounted to a general election against a billion unknown competitors (and Gary Coleman).

It would take that kind of back flip to get an electable candidate at the national level.

The problem is, it's hard to imagine the Republican base voting for such a person in the general election, and it's hard to imagine a candidate that would appeal to swing voters who presented himself any differently than Obama:

''I'm the REAL post-partisan compromiser.''

''No, I'm the REALER post-post-partisan mega-compromiser.''

and so it would go.

The advantage the Republicans would have in that situation is the media would likely parrot their talking points that Obama has been a socialist extremist who forced his will on Congress and the innately conservative American people.

Of course, if such a GOP candidate got elected, he would govern nothing like Obama but would be Bush with better grammar.

[kenfrequed]

9. Typical Frum false equivalency BS

Yes, the conservative religious right is pushing the republican party to the ultra right and making it difficult to find a candidate that sates their bloodlust.

But NO this is NOT the result of BOTH parties drifting to the ideological extreme. The Democratic party has not moved to the left or any real ideologically extreme position. They have a larger segment that is more interested in helping corporations but I don't see that as being ideologically left of center.

This analysis isn't just wrong and idiotic, it also causes us trouble later on down the road, though I suppose it does benefit the absurd Third-Way movement (which is just the DLC with a PR brush up).

[BumRushDaShow]

10. The more they push that meme

the more I know they are in deep trouble.

[fascisthunter]

16. well, the deems moving to the right is pretty extreme

but yeah, I picked up on the same garbage.

[snagglepuss]

11. I don't respect Frum but am recommending the article for the point he

makes about changes that have resulted in there no longer being any political brokers.

[KamaAina]

12. "one major reason that both parties have drifted to the ideological extremes since the 1970s."

unless you consider today's neoliberal Dem party an "ideological extreme" on the right.

[saras]

15. If it were someone sensible, that's exactly what I'd think

America has, by any reasonable measure, moved far to the right since the seventies, and the politicians of both parties have moved much farther to the right than the population.

Well, you can't write fiction without describing SOMETHING accurately.

[Ganja Ninja]

13. Personally I would like to see them come to blows.

Traditional Republicans vs Tea Party vs Christian Taliban vs Ron Paul supporters. Just see the whole thing break down and a riot break out. Tear gas, pepper spray & handcuffs for the whole lot.

[Vincardog]

17. You are more likle to see the DSCC order OWS to be tear gassed

[JNelson6563]

22. lolz

I say stand by your ignorance proudly! Proclaim it (with statements like this) for the world to see!

Julie--urging you to stand firm!

[mick063]

18. A convention pre-primer

Folks are going to freak out on how many delegates Ron Paul stole from the process.

It will make him a player for framing the platform. It will give him more clout and voice than the establishment can stomache. The alternative will be an angry, sizeable bunch of Paul delegates.

The thing could turn into high drama in an otherwise long, boring Sunday School sermon. Indeed, there must be drama for precisely that reason. The press needs something to write home about.