Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

cali

(114,904 posts)
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 05:46 PM Aug 2013

OK, so we're going to war and we're going to depose Assad. What happens after that?

For that matter what happens when it starts? And yes, we know with a fairly strong degree of certitude that it's going to happen:

Syria crisis: warplanes spotted in Cyprus as tensions rise in Damascus

Warplanes and military transporters have begun arriving at Britain's Akrotiri airbase on Cyprus, less than 100 miles from the Syrian coast, in a sign of increasing preparations for a military strike against the Assad regime in Syria.

Two commercial pilots who regularly fly from Larnaca on Monday told the Guardian that they had seen C-130 transport planes from their cockpit windows as well as small formations of fighter jets on their radar screens, which they believe had flown from Europe.

Residents near the British airfield, a sovereign base since 1960, also say activity there has been much higher than normal over the past 48 hours.

If an order to attack targets in Syria is given, Cyprus is likely to be a hub of the air campaign. The arrival of warplanes suggests that advanced readiness – at the very least – has been ordered by Whitehall as David Cameron, Barack Obama and European leaders step up their rhetoric against Bashar al-Assad, whose armed forces they accuse of carrying out the chemical weapons attack last Wednesday that killed many hundreds in eastern Damascus.

<snip>
(this is a really informative article and includes what military strikes could look like)
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/26/syria-warplanes-cyprus-tensions-damascus

Who takes power? The rebels are disparate groups and they already fight among themselves. The Free Syrian Army isn't exactly besties with Jabhat al Nusra.

Assad is threatening to attack Israel if the U.S. and allies attack his forces. Does H'zbollah get even more in on the action?

If you think attacking Syria is a good idea, you might want to mull over what happens after we kick Assad to the curb and ponder the very real possibility that things could get worse. A lot worse.

31 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
OK, so we're going to war and we're going to depose Assad. What happens after that? (Original Post) cali Aug 2013 OP
Next? Iran RobertEarl Aug 2013 #1
That's pretty much the way I'm calling it. Jackpine Radical Aug 2013 #3
Iran would lose its entire nuclear infrastructure railsback Aug 2013 #7
which people? GeorgeGist Aug 2013 #20
Yeah, there are plenty of idiots to go around Art_from_Ark Aug 2013 #29
That's the endgame. Iran has the US Surrounded, All Right Catherina Aug 2013 #18
I am not going to speculate on a decision that has not happened yet. n/t PowerToThePeople Aug 2013 #2
it's pretty safe speculation for anyone paying attention. cali Aug 2013 #10
apparently you aren't paying attention because most sane discussions aren't talking about deposing KittyWampus Aug 2013 #15
anyone who doesn't see that that's the likely result cali Aug 2013 #17
Kinetic Military Action is not war GeorgeGist Aug 2013 #23
I know PowerToThePeople Aug 2013 #16
Profit! n/t Fumesucker Aug 2013 #4
Precisely. Luminous Animal Aug 2013 #6
Yes, the DUers pounding the war drums.... HooptieWagon Aug 2013 #5
the kneejerk emotional response is- PNAC! SAME PLAYBOOK! OMG WE"RE GOING TO WAR! KittyWampus Aug 2013 #13
We're close to WW3!!! Cali_Democrat Aug 2013 #25
there are real reasons to oppose any involvement, and stuff like that just sound stupid JI7 Aug 2013 #27
It seems I've heard this song before. trof Aug 2013 #8
I think a guy named Country Joe sang that with his Fish Art_from_Ark Aug 2013 #31
They will greet us with flowers??? Autumn Aug 2013 #9
I do. I have a pretty good clue and it's not pretty. cali Aug 2013 #11
wow, you are a fortune teller! We are going to war. We are deposing Assad. KittyWampus Aug 2013 #12
try paying attention. read the article. listen to Kerry- and that includes between the lines cali Aug 2013 #19
Russia won't allow Assad to fall. Arctic Dave Aug 2013 #14
"Christians to Beruit. Alawites to the Grave." Xithras Aug 2013 #21
It's certain to be another clusterfuck. City Lights Aug 2013 #22
That's exactly the question isn't it? mysuzuki2 Aug 2013 #24
from what i read there is no goal to depose Assad JI7 Aug 2013 #26
We have no idea what happens next customerserviceguy Aug 2013 #28
I think we all want Assad gone, but there is nothing good that seems ready to take his place... Leopolds Ghost Aug 2013 #30
 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
1. Next? Iran
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 05:50 PM
Aug 2013

Just like PNAC has planned.

And Saudi Arabia gets to stay a monarchy while they abuse their women.

WW3 looks closer than ever. Good job, Obama.

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
3. That's pretty much the way I'm calling it.
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 05:53 PM
Aug 2013

We attack Syria, Iran blusters & maybe takes a couple of shots at Israel, then we go into Iran. Iran gets arms from Russia…

Iran won't be a cakewalk like Cheney told us Iraq would be.

 

railsback

(1,881 posts)
7. Iran would lose its entire nuclear infrastructure
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 05:57 PM
Aug 2013

which they've built to power the entire country.

You must really think these people are complete idiots.

Catherina

(35,568 posts)
18. That's the endgame. Iran has the US Surrounded, All Right
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 06:04 PM
Aug 2013

Iran has US Surrounded, All Right

Posted on 12/12/2011 by Juan Cole

From Democratic Underground:

Each star is a US base. But just to be clear, Iran is the one that is threatening us.



http://www.juancole.com/2011/12/iran-has-us-surrounded-all-right.html

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
10. it's pretty safe speculation for anyone paying attention.
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 06:00 PM
Aug 2013

It's going to happen. Kerry signaled that today. So did the White House briefing. They've been building up forces to conduct an attack.

 

KittyWampus

(55,894 posts)
15. apparently you aren't paying attention because most sane discussions aren't talking about deposing
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 06:02 PM
Aug 2013

Assad, or a war, or an invasion.

 

PowerToThePeople

(9,610 posts)
16. I know
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 06:04 PM
Aug 2013

I was being a little snarky. That phrase was said more than any other thing in the briefing today.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
5. Yes, the DUers pounding the war drums....
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 05:56 PM
Aug 2013

.... are operating on a knee-jerk emotional response. Neither side in the conflict is our friend....they are all "bad guys". And its quite possible we will make the situation worse. A strike on Syria could drag the whole region into war...is Obama prepared to do that, even putting boots on the ground? It will be another quagmire....possibly bigger and longer-lasting than the ones Bush got us in to.

trof

(54,256 posts)
8. It seems I've heard this song before.
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 05:57 PM
Aug 2013

Was it "The Iraqi Blues"?
Or "The Pottery Barn Rag"?

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I've heard this song before.
Or maybe just another verse to the same song?

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
31. I think a guy named Country Joe sang that with his Fish
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 07:36 PM
Aug 2013

at a long ago and faraway place called Woodstock

Autumn

(45,120 posts)
9. They will greet us with flowers???
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 05:58 PM
Aug 2013

Seriously, I don't have a clue. I just know that we have been down this road before and it sickens me.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
19. try paying attention. read the article. listen to Kerry- and that includes between the lines
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 06:05 PM
Aug 2013

the result of attacking syria will almost certainly mean the end of Assad.

 

Arctic Dave

(13,812 posts)
14. Russia won't allow Assad to fall.
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 06:02 PM
Aug 2013

If the US does bomb, expect a significant amount of weaponry to show up in Syria. Not to mention years of sabotage and blowback.

New and improved capabilities to flatten anything held by insurgents.

Xithras

(16,191 posts)
21. "Christians to Beruit. Alawites to the Grave."
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 06:06 PM
Aug 2013

No need to speculate. The rebels own popular slogans reveal their intentions.

Victory will be followed by genocide and ethnic cleansing. The Islamists who now dominate the insurgency have already demonstrated how they intend to lead as well. Women will be forced to cover themselves. Minority religious sites will be destroyed. Gays will be beaten.

The Syrian civil war can be summed up as "right wing religious authoritarians vs. fascist authoritarians". We're apparently standing on the side of the religious authoritarians.

mysuzuki2

(3,521 posts)
24. That's exactly the question isn't it?
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 06:09 PM
Aug 2013

We have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan that throwing the bad guy out is the easy part. Putting something better in it's place is a lot harder. I see no way that US military intervention in Syria will have a positive outcome.

customerserviceguy

(25,183 posts)
28. We have no idea what happens next
Mon Aug 26, 2013, 07:27 PM
Aug 2013

Various factions will spend years fighting to be the top of the heap, and while they may not use chemical weapons, they'll be happy to kill civilians of any age with more conventional weapons.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»OK, so we're going to war...