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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWho ever did kill those kids in Syria is At Large....
and if this attack isn't enough to pull the US into the conflict, they will be willing to kill even more.
Are you starting to see why it's vital to figure out WHO did it?
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lumpy
(13,704 posts)Who knows what the outcome will be at this point.
Savannahmann
(3,891 posts)According to reports from the White House, Regime Change is right off the table. We can't bomb the weapons themselves, that would release them and poison a few thousand more innocents. We are then left with bombing a few useless buildings and killing the janitorial staff. What exactly does that teach anyone?
Russia on the other hand has told us not to do it, and should they decide that this is an affront to them doesn't that increase the likelihood of world war?
A lot of questions, and the answers we're getting so far don't seen very useful or well considered.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)stay intact but get him and his brother out.
Savannahmann
(3,891 posts)Which President Obama has already ruled out.
We want a thriving democracy there, one where the people can move forward into the future with a preferably Liberal democracy. I use Liberal not to say akin to our ideals, but one where the rights of all the people are considered, not just the majority. The problem is that none of those groups fighting Assad show any signs that they are planning anything like a liberal democracy. We are liable to bomb Assad, and then force him from power, and then have another group that is just as brutal in suppressing the population. More likely the nation will devolve into Somalia, with each faction controlling some part of the country, and each claiming to be the true voice of the nation.
Somalia has become the modern equivalent to the dark ages. Each person is aligned with one warlord, and that warlord lets them live.
Piracy and criminal organizations have flourished. Human rights are what your group affords the people aligned with it. Your enemies which are the other groups, have no rights whatsoever.
That's why I keep calling for intelligent action, or absent that, inaction. The idea of humanitarian is that we help, not merely punish. Assad is a bad guy, but all those fighting to overthrow him are no better, and many are believed to be far worse. We backed the wrong guy in Egypt, and had to watch him implement a barbaric regime over the people and threaten the stability of the Suez Canal. Then when he was overthrown, we got our backs up, because we were under the illusion that he was a) elected, and b) aligned with us.
The right to govern is not derived from an election, but by the people being willing to follow. When they no longer follow, you're no longer leading the people, you are inflicting upon them laws they want nothing to do with. Egypt was a popular uprising that threatened to devolve into that chaos I mentioned before. Syria is on the brink of that, and one Somalia is more than enough. Imagine a pirate infested Syria, with threats of attacks on ships in the Mediterranean. We're already spending billions trying to stop the attacks off the coast of Somalia, imagine what it would cost to run convoys through the Med.
We need intelligent action, with a clear goal, one that improves the situation, not makes it worse. So far, I haven't heard that plan put forth, and I long for one.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)Savannahmann
(3,891 posts)Wael Nader al-Halqi
Now, he was appointed to the position of Prime Minister by Asad. If you have any hope that he is in any way significantly different than the lunatic currently in power, don't hold your breath for any change. That by the way would not end the civil war, it would not get the various factions warring to stop, and even if he stepped down and handed power over to a transitional ruling council, they would have to been appointed to something by Assad. Now, the military isn't strong enough on their own to end the war as was the case in Egypt.
In other words, no matter what happens, the civil war will rage for years. At least tens of thousands will die, and probably hundreds of thousands. The only way to end it is the unthinkable, put US forces into the nation, and then set up a puppet Government like we did in Iraq. The population of Syria is more like Iraq, that means educated and at least familiar with Western ideals, unlike Afghanistan where a vast majority of the country was still tribal in nature. So this plan might work over the next decade.
I say it is unthinkable because we have already ruled it out, and there is no way the American Public gets behind the Iraq mission part two, the Syrian Sequel. Europe wants action, but really doesn't want to commit. Saudi Arabia wants someone to do it, but not them. Syria is bordered by Israel, no help there with stabilization. Lebanon, not a great leader in the area, and hardly more stable. Iraq, enough said. Jordan, which has said no way, no how, and no thanks. And finally Turkey. None of them are liable to be a big help in stabilizing the nation.
Remember, it's not just getting rid of Asad, it's stabilizing and shutting the civil war down. The problem with Civil War's is that after a month, everyone has blood debts to repay. They can't stop because they swore an oath to their brother/cousin/best friend/father/someone else's memory that they would fight forever. Victory or death tends to be the goal.
Now, we know the Rebel forces are bad guys, we know the Government is full of bad guys, and the chances of someone going in and setting up a stable democracy are about one in a thousand. The odds may not be that good. We can't help, we can't stop the radical's backed by AQ and get them to see reason, we can't get the Muslim Brotherhood factions to do it either. We are left with a four way mess. Helping one to win just inflicts that group on the people who have already suffered more than enough.
This is why I keep calling for intelligent plans, which I haven't seen. We aren't the referees in this mess. We can't be. Otherwise the Asad regime will come to us complaining about innocents that the Rebels slaughtered and demanding a missile strike to punish them. Traditionally we have been hands off in Civil Wars for a reason. We don't want the war, and we don't like the death, but there is no way to make them stop fighting and learn to live together.
jazzimov
(1,456 posts)There is no "good option". The best thing we can do is just keep our noses out of it and let them work it out for themselves. Yes, this will take many, many years.
However, the evidence is growing that pro-Assad forces used chemical weapons. President Obama said that was a "red-line", and I have to agree with him on that point. Whether he ordered the strikes himself or not, he is responsible for them. Someone must do "something" to make sure these weapons are not used again.
The interesting thing is that the use of these weapons proved ineffective in "stopping" the rebels, since the areas attacked were also shelled shortly thereafter and yet they still remain under rebel control.
Bearing in mind that any response is NOT for regime change but simply for the use of chemical weapons, I would prefer that any response comes from the UNSC. That appears to be unlikely, since Russia and China will probably veto any action. My next choice would be a response from NATO. With the recent British Parliament vote, that seems unlikely also. My understanding is that most MP's were voting to delay response until more information was known - which I can certainly understand. I also have the impression that most voting "No" were expecting another vote, which now seems unlikely as the PM seems willing to block any further action like a petulant child. But that is his choice and his maneuvering.
Now, there is a side of this that no one seems to have considered. Much has been made of the fact that one of the rebel factions is al Qaeda related. If the perception is that the US helped them out, this might take some of the teeth out of anti-US rhetoric in some of the organizations. I am only talking perception. I am not recommending we do that. In fact, my recommendation is that we maintain the perception that we are being neutral, and do everything we can to maintain that perception.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)will overload several neighboring countries already in a humanitarian crisis trying to deal with the 2 MILLION Syrian refugees.
Junkdrawer
(27,993 posts)The rebels are divided and killing each other
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)Assad Is Not "Winning" & Is Getting Desperate. Der Spiegel
Last edited Mon Sep 2, 2013, 05:16 PM USA/ET - Edit history (4)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/situation-in-syria-deteriorates-as-west-looks-for-answers-a-919733-2.html
snip
Yet, it is perhaps irrelevant who gave the order since the entire Syrian leadership is reportedly afraid that the defense lines will collapse. These fears have been fanned by a number of developments over the past few weeks: the unauthorized withdrawal of previously Assad-loyal militias to their Alawite villages; the feared rebel offensive; the declining morale of the regular troops; and the rising losses without military victories to show for them.
The poison gas attack was probably carried out by the 4th division of Assad's army. Experts and defectors agree that this is the only unit that possesses launching devices for chemical weapons. Immediately following the chemical attack, it shelled rebel positions with conventional artillery -- but was unable to take a single location.
Instead, the division lost at least seven tanks in the Damascus neighborhood of Harasta alone. A rebel video provides an insight into the lack of personnel among the elite division: Two crew members flee a burning tank -- but they are wearing no uniforms, no helmets and no radio gear. Shabiha militia members have apparently been forced to fill the gaps in the ranks of the army.
The images are highly significant and don't correspond with reports that Assad has strengthened his military position. Military experts and intelligence agents had been circulating this theory for months, ever since the battle for control of the small town of Qusayr in early summer. Under the leadership of over 1,000 fighters from the Shiite Hezbollah militia from Lebanon, Assad's troops were able to recapture Qusayr.
Snip
Nevertheless, the myth of a military turning point in the regime's favor has persisted since June. This has also hampered the search for motives for the poison gas attack: Many observers wondered why Assad should use chemical weapons if he is winning the war already. In actual fact, the situation has been difficult for the regime's troops for quite some time now. Since the spring of 2012, many of the army's positions have only been supplied from the air because all land routes are under the control the rebels.
Junkdrawer
(27,993 posts)Kamal Hamami, of the Free Syrian Army's (FSA) Supreme Military Council, was meeting members of the rival group "to discuss battle plans".
An FSA spokesman said he was told by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant that they had killed Mr Hamami.
The killing is part of an escalating struggle within the armed uprising between moderates and Islamists.
The BBC's Paul Wood says a civil war within a civil war is building within the opposition as the two sides engage in a battle that is partly over the spoils and partly ideological.
....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23283079
It has been a week of military gains for the Syrian government whose soldiers won an important battle against the rebels after long and intense fighting.
President Bashar al-Assad's forces regained control of Qusayr - the strategic city near the border with Lebanon. The main opposition coalition conceded defeat but says the uprising will go on.
The city had been under the control of opposition forces since last year but the rebels were pushed out by the Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon.
Thousands had already fled the city, but what has happened to many others is unknown. Qusayr is strategically important because the rebels used it to smuggle weapons into Syria through Lebanon and the Mediterranean.
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidesyria/2013/06/20136910716700762.html
Warpy
(111,260 posts)it might turn out to be a bunch of punks who bribed a guard to get one cylinder and either detonated it while they were trying to figure out how it worked or had it detonated for them during a conventional rocket attack.
We don't know for certain who did this. We also can't take the high ground while we've still got massive stockpiles of it ourselves.
Junkdrawer
(27,993 posts)The last time the UN did a decent job of looking into CW & Syria it was the rebels and not Assad that used CW.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)situation we have so many warring factions and those in the pockets of the Defense Contractors..and Innocents and World Powers in the Mix.
Who could be a Joe Wilson? Debunking the weapons use and proving that they weren't Assad's Order ...but his brother, a renegade under Assad's Command or the different warring factions use of what they got from UK and Bandar Bush which were just "components of WMD/Chem...that they fouled up in mixing and it got out of hand.
This all needs time to investigate and even THEN would we know the truth?
We need to think about STAYING OUT OF IT...and let them solve it themselves...backing off of trying to save them which will eventually Kill More as it did in Iraq/Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan, South Africa...and so many of our "humanitarian interventions. When Clinton bombed Kosovo...there were still hundreds of deaths after that...maybe even over a thousand.
We we KILL MORE to VANQUISH those who were KILLED BEFORE...saying "It can be Worse." It always turns out WORSE when we get involved. These Terrorist Groups and the Installed Regimes always "COUNT ON US" to come in and there is hope from Insurgents and hope from our Installed Regimes...that we will settle everything.
There needs to be accountability ...by those who do this to their OWN COUNTRY and not looking to USA/NATO/UN to be their SAVIORS. It's the Global Defense Contractors/Arms Makers and "Dirty Folks" in-between who end up Profiting. The people never will as long as it goes on with one more Puppet of Global Empire/Defense/Arms Sellers installed which will be controlled by that crowd if THE PEOPLE don't do their own Civil War and Revolution without the dirty dealers.
At this point there's just too much manipulation and propaganda out there for our TAX DOLLARS in a CRUMMY ECONOMY to have to pay any more for this kind of intervention..
IMHO....
Junkdrawer
(27,993 posts)and use the UN to do a thorough multi-national CRIME investigation, you throw water instead of gas on the fire and you have the chance of getting to the truth and apprehending the perps.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)Agree this is the way it should be handled. But, somehow along the way the UN started to be ineffectual. I think now...no one thinks of it being able to hold anyone accountable for no matter what the heinous crime is. We are just supposed to let the Mobs take them and throw them in a prison to rot away or kill them in grotesque ways to be shown and paraded before the media. We set an example when we "Took Out" bin Laden and buried him at sea..
Sad times, indeed.
vaberella
(24,634 posts)Because the blame seems to be towards them.
Junkdrawer
(27,993 posts)So the DAY the UN CW inspection team arrived is the DAY Assad decides..."what the hell, I'll gas a few rebel neighborhoods right down the street from the inspectors?"
It make no sense...