Predictions: 1) Congress will vote no.

[ProSense]

2) The UN will confirm the use of Sarin.

3) The UN Security Council will remain deadlocked.

4) Assad will use chemical weapons again.

5) Some people will still say, "not our problem."

[RobertEarl]

1. Our navy will help Al Queda

Empire will not be laughed at!

[sharp_stick]

2. I'd say you've got a pretty good chance of being right n/t

[leftstreet]

3. So it's been proven Assad actually did this?

4) Assad will use chemical weapons again.

[B2G]

10. That was my question too. nt

[Celebrandil]

18. It's probably a matter of probabilities, rather than hard facts.

We know that 10+ opposition dominating suburbs were simultaneously bombed with sarin gas. Even if some opposition elements could be in control of chemical weapons, it would have been terribly hard for them to actually deliver those bombs at so many different locations. And why would they hurt the areas that they are already in control of? The only plausible explanation to that is to convince the western powers to enter the war on their side, something that Russia seems to believe. But then bombing one location would have been enough and it would have been followed by a well planned media spectacle.

[former9thward]

30. The probabilities are that the rebels used the gas.

The rebels used sarin in May according to the UN and the world ignored it.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE94409Z20130505

So the rebels probably thought they would have to do it in several areas at once to make the world notice and better make it look like the government did it. Assad had absolutely nothing to gain by using chemicals weapons. The rebels are losing and are in disarray all over the country. He had nothing to gain and everything to lose by using chemical weapons.

[Celebrandil]

40. Assad does have something to gain.

I agree that Assad has little, if anything, to gain from using chemical weapons. The only reason that I find plausible is to show his Alawite supporters that he intends to stay for the long run and that nobody should be afraid (among his supporters) as long as he is in power. Still I find that reasoning weak. Why take such a risk, if you are not in deep trouble, which Assad (currently) doesn't seem to be? It's true that the rebels lost some cities in the beginning of summer, but if you look at the map as a whole not much has happened in one year. Assad is somewhat stronger in major cities, the rebels on the country side. On the other hand, the rebels are more fragmented now than before.

[pampango]

28. Ask Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Now there's a couple of neo-cons (a neo-socialist?) to throw under the bus. Fortunately they are smart enough to not vote to authorize a strike, but they do not ignore facts. (That's a republican specialty.)

[HappyMe]

4. There's a good chance you are right.

[Jefferson23]

5. The UN has not assigned responsibility. n/t

[ProSense]

8. The UN will not assign responsiblity.

The UN Security Council can decide to act based on the report confirming use of chemicals and severity of the attacks.

Syria: Ban says UN chemical weapons experts working ‘around the clock’ to analyze evidence

3 September 2013 – Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announced today that all biomedical and environmental samples gathered by United Nations inspectors at sites of possible chemical weapons use in Syria are now arriving at designated laboratories in Europe.

Speaking to the press at UN Headquarters in New York, Mr. Ban said that the Mission, led by Swedish scientist Dr. Åke Sellström, has worked “around the clock” since returning from Syria over the weekend to prepare the materials it gathered for analysis. All the samples will arrive at the laboratories by tomorrow. "We are doing our utmost to expedite the process," he added.

“Since the horrendous attacks in the Ghouta area of Damascus two weeks ago, the (Mission) has been working urgently to establish the facts regarding the nature and extent of any use of chemical weapons, Mr. Ban said, underscoring that, as the first probe of allegations of the use of weapons of mass destruction in the 21st century, “the Mission’s success is in everyone’s interest.”

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=45760&Cr=syria&Cr1=

[Jefferson23]

13. Yes, and? I stated there has been no UN assignment to responsibility, only the US

who wants a strike has done that. In your choices, I thought that should be noted, nothing more.

Yet, what he also said, at your link: We do not have that kind of mandate at this time,” Mr. Ban said...regarding
identifying who is responsible.

[pampango]

31. Not at this stage anyway. Here is something from Amnesty International about the next step.

So what can the international community do if they do find proof that chemical weapons were used?

The UN-mandated Commission of Inquiry on Syria must be allowed access to Syria to assess who was responsible for the attack, as well as to investigate other ongoing allegations of crimes under international law being committed in the context of the armed conflict. Given that the Commission of Inquiry has been denied permission to enter Syria since it was set up in August 2011, the UN Security Council should demand that the Syrian government and opposition forces allow it access to territory under their respective control and co-operate fully with its inquiries. All other governments should use any influence they have with the parties to the conflict to support this demand.

As Amnesty International has been repeatedly calling for, the UN Security Council should also refer the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court to ensure accountability for the use of chemical weapons and all other war crimes and crimes against humanity.

http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/MDE24/043/2013/en/6f93cf47-5adf-4b7f-ac2a-1ec57261dcca/mde240432013en.html

[Motown_Johnny]

6. I am betting Congress votes yes

but on something far more limited than what Pres. Obama has asked for.



In this case, Pres. Obama didn't ask for what he actually wanted. I hope he makes a habit of this.

[cali]

7. Congress will, alas, vote yes. That's my prediction

[BlueJazz]

22. I agree. The press will "work" the populace until the bombing will be acceptable.

[corkhead]

26. they already are

59% oppose it today. Let's see where it is in a couple of weeks

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/09/03/most-in-u-s-oppose-syria-strike-post-abc-poll-finds/

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. 1) Congress will vote yes

2) There will be a limited strike that will have limited consequences
3) This entire episode will be more or less forgotten in a year
4) Assad will not use chemical weapons again and will cede power in 2015

[ProSense]

21. Possibly. n/t

[Celebrandil]

11. And then...

5) The EU and Arab League will call for immediate action.

6) America will be among the 20+ countries answering the call.

7) Once Syria has been bombed to pieces, Assad will still be in power.

[Warpy]

12. I have two questions for you

1. When was the US appointed the policeman for the world, ready to swoop in to every civil war that gets nasty? And by whom?

2. How much of the military is being paid for by the countries in the world who elected us World Policeman?

I'm sick to death of being given the shitty end of the stick in this country so that military men can strut and swagger over pushing weaker people around. I'm sick to death of that five sided black hole in Arlington swallowing so much of this country's wealth building hatred around the world.

I'm sick to death of people who think war is the answer to everything.

[ProSense]

15. You should

I have two questions for you

1. When was the US appointed the policeman for the world, ready to swoop in to every civil war that gets nasty? And by whom?

2. How much of the military is being paid for by the countries in the world who elected us World Policeman?

...ask your reps in Congress.

Why is it the U.S. responsibility to prevent Iran pursuing its nuclear program?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023587381

[Warpy]

16. You're the one beating the war drums

and I asked those questions of you.

[ProSense]

20. Don't ask your reps, and if they vote yes, you'll have your answer...sort of.

My "drums," whatever beat is coming from them, are irrelevant.

[Salviati]

14. Predictions:

1) Congress votes yes / no
2) Lots more Syrians will be killed in this bloody conflict
3) The conflict ends with people we don't really like running the show.

[joeglow3]

17. Not our problem

If we go, we spend billions, lose lives, are still hated by everyone over there and ultimately nothing changes. Why waste our time, money and lives.

[jaysunb]

19. I think there will be a yes vote and Obama

will take it back to the UN w/ a compromise that will demand that Assad permit the UN to take control of the chemical weapons...if not, it will be surgical strikes measured by the time frames given. China and Russia will probably play along.
The President will look good for not taking GWB's path with Congressional authorization and in the end prove that there are other ways to use the threat of force.

Bookmark it and get back to me in a couple weeks.

[ProSense]

23. Possibly, but China and Russia are doubtful. n/t

[pampango]

32. That is thinking outside the box, anyway. I doubt Assad would give up his chemical weapons nor

that Russia would lean on him to do so. But I do hope you are right.

[Avalux]

34. Russia will not play along.

Still operating on cold war mentality, and with their only military base outside of Russia in Syria, they will not play along. I would love to see your scenario take place, but probably unlikely.

[David Zephyr]

42. I agree.

Taking it to Congress was the right thing to do. I believe he will get an affirmative vote from both houses.

[KamaAina]

24. I think it breaks down at 4).

The one instance in which the regime likely used CW appears to be the work of a rogue unit commander, who was promptly slapped down by the Syrian defense minister.

[kentuck]

25. I hope so.

Then, maybe Obama can do the right thing?

[rug]

27. If your first prediction is correct, will Obama order a strike?

As long as you're predicting and all . . .

[kentuck]

29. Why are you asking ProSense?

She has already said:

"My "drums," whatever beat is coming from them, are irrelevant."

[rug]

33. In this case, it's her own predictions, except of course, the only one that matters.

[ProSense]

35. The predictions are in chronological order.

I mean, you apparently want to read something in there that isn't there.

[rug]

37. Your answer is a non sequitur.

Between prediction 1 and prediction 2, what do you predict Obama will do?

It's a very simple question.

[blazeKing]

36. Uh ..no

1. Congress will vote yes
2. UN will NOT confirm use Assad used chemical weapons
3. Al Qaeda rebels WILL use chemical weapons again on women and children
4. Assad will be taken out
5. Ethnic cleansing will commence
6. Troops on the ground

[ProSense]

38. "3. Al Qaeda rebels WILL use chemical weapons again on women and children"

Well, at least you're not waiting for the UN, and have clear evidence that the rebels did it.

[David Krout]

43. Huh? You said Assad will use chemical weapons "again"

But you never predicted the UN will conclude that Assad was responsible for the use of chemical weapons.

You're not a very patient person yourself.

[spanone]

39. makes sense

[Sand Wind]

41. Don't you know that Kerry lost his soul after having send his Sarin to the opposition who use it ?

The Assad fan base ....