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bigtree

(85,996 posts)
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 04:30 PM Sep 2013

Why are diplomatic options no more than one-liners for the Obama administration?

Jon Favreau (former Obama speechwriter) ‏@jonfavs 11m
100% RT @ezraklein: Samantha Power's case for striking Syria is the best I've heard from a member of the Obama admin: http://wapo.st/1eq974b


Powers, Kerry and the rest of the President's deputies have all made forceful cases for military intervention in Syria, while reducing accountability for their pursuit of diplomatic options to one-liners about 'exhausting' them.

I'd like to hear a case made by the administration on why military strikes are the ONLY option they're seriously considering or mobilizing support for. Do they really intend to just 'remain silent,' absent of consent or decision to initiate military force?

Or, are they prepared to seriously pursue options short of war?
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Why are diplomatic options no more than one-liners for the Obama administration? (Original Post) bigtree Sep 2013 OP
You think diplomatic solutions were NOT pursued? blm Sep 2013 #1
they're in the back seat now, blm bigtree Sep 2013 #4
Because Assad became increasingly paranoid, big - - his mental state blm Sep 2013 #17
Huh? treestar Sep 2013 #2
does military force ever 'break down'? bigtree Sep 2013 #6
Probably because theyve purued iamthebandfanman Sep 2013 #3
Two years ago, Obama was saying, "Assad must go." That's not diplomacy. scarletwoman Sep 2013 #19
Describe one that Russia and China can't block. Barack_America Sep 2013 #5
the US can't possibly hope to get the results they want through military strikes bigtree Sep 2013 #8
If that's what you want, read or watch the Samantha Powers speech. Bolo Boffin Sep 2013 #7
explain to me how they are 'exhausted' bigtree Sep 2013 #9
Go watch the speech. n/t Bolo Boffin Sep 2013 #10
I don't need the speech again to tell me that diplomatic efforts are 'exhausted' bigtree Sep 2013 #11
Welp. Bolo Boffin Sep 2013 #12
no, I read that bigtree Sep 2013 #13
Then you're handwaving what they are saying. Bolo Boffin Sep 2013 #14
well, yeah, in a way bigtree Sep 2013 #16
How can diplomacy work when one side's getting away with gassing the other side? Bolo Boffin Sep 2013 #20
that's just gobblygook, considering the casualties inflicted by the armed resistance bigtree Sep 2013 #22
It's tragic Obama hasn't kept everyone up on this leftstreet Sep 2013 #15
He's always gotten flack for nuance, gray areas, and carefully worded long sentences bhikkhu Sep 2013 #18
Because diplomacy has been tried and Russia has blocked every attempt. bluestate10 Sep 2013 #21
perhaps it's because of our own preconditions for these negotiations they've offered bigtree Sep 2013 #23
U.S. demands are in essence Harmony Blue Sep 2013 #24

blm

(113,059 posts)
1. You think diplomatic solutions were NOT pursued?
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 04:36 PM
Sep 2013

Because corporate media wasn't much interested in the 8 years Assad was being brought in as a partner to work towards regional peace efforts by..............John Kerry....doesn't mean it didn't happen. I posted about it many times here since 2005, big.

Arab Spring changed Assad's focus, he became increasingly paranoid, and he fell back into the comfort zone of his father's legacy of brutality.

bigtree

(85,996 posts)
4. they're in the back seat now, blm
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 04:44 PM
Sep 2013

. . . we're driving to war and most Americans are trying to put on the brakes.

How can diplomatic efforts be 'exhausted', yet, military options are presented as inviolable?

blm

(113,059 posts)
17. Because Assad became increasingly paranoid, big - - his mental state
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 10:56 PM
Sep 2013

has been declining since Arab Spring.

Kerry and he had a building relationship since 2005 and Kerry even had Assad committed to helping bring about the Mideast peace talks. With Arab Spring he started to lose his grip.

I am sorry that you never clicked on my posts about Syria for the last 8 years - you wouldn't be so quick to think that there was no diplomacy. Kerry stepped up in 2005 to reach out to Assad to PREVENT use of force in Syria that the hawks wanted then - including both Clintons.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
2. Huh?
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 04:39 PM
Sep 2013

Diplomacy has kind of broken down there. That's what war is. Complete breakdown of any willingness to talk things out or compromise. They are already killing each other there. I guess we could say, "please stop and let's have a meeting."

bigtree

(85,996 posts)
6. does military force ever 'break down'?
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 04:47 PM
Sep 2013

How does the abandonment of diplomatic options make military force unassailable as one?

Diplomacy isn't just 'having a meeting.' Maybe that's where the disconnect is in your argument.

iamthebandfanman

(8,127 posts)
3. Probably because theyve purued
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 04:39 PM
Sep 2013

diplomatic solutions for almost 2 years now...


where have you been ?

Assad was even offered asylum in a European country (a long with his wealth) at one point . that time has come and passed though.

scarletwoman

(31,893 posts)
19. Two years ago, Obama was saying, "Assad must go." That's not diplomacy.
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 11:18 PM
Sep 2013

Offering "asylum in a European country" is not diplomacy.

When you tell the leader of a sovereign country that he "has to go" - regardless of whether or not you're offering him asylum under cushy circumstances - what you are telling that leader is that you intend to depose him one way or another. Why would that leader ever want to negotiate with you solely on the basis of his own removal?



Barack_America

(28,876 posts)
5. Describe one that Russia and China can't block.
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 04:47 PM
Sep 2013

I'd actually really love to hear some ideas. I can't think of any myself.

Arms are coming in on Russian warships, so a blockade is pretty dodgy.
It's not clear to me where Assad has his money and whether we can access it (I suspect not).
Any sanctions or other action via the UN will be immediately blocked by Russia and China (and are typically designed to design upheaval from within, so...check)

I guess we can bar his wife from attending international fashion weeks, but other than that I don't have much.

bigtree

(85,996 posts)
8. the US can't possibly hope to get the results they want through military strikes
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 05:04 PM
Sep 2013

Most of their reluctance in fully committing to a diplomatic solution in Syria has to do with their reluctance to give any more credence to the Assad regime than they believe he deserves' perhaps propping him up, unnecessarily, in power with their diplomatic efforts.

Yet, the U.S. can't decide, either, whether to put their efforts into working with the armed Syrian opposition because of antipathy to elements within that group.

That said, it's no excuse to claim those efforts are exhausted and just move to war. Were not going to be able to just bomb Syria into compliance with whatever political ambitions the U.S. wants for the regime or for the country.

Bolo Boffin

(23,796 posts)
7. If that's what you want, read or watch the Samantha Powers speech.
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 04:52 PM
Sep 2013

She goes into all the avenues the Obama Administration tried before pushing for a limited strike.

bigtree

(85,996 posts)
9. explain to me how they are 'exhausted'
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 05:07 PM
Sep 2013

. . .when the military option has such a dubious and nebulous outcome?

Shouldn't the diplomatic pursuit/process/option be an ongoing and continual one?

bigtree

(85,996 posts)
11. I don't need the speech again to tell me that diplomatic efforts are 'exhausted'
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 05:45 PM
Sep 2013

. . . what she describes is an abandonment of diplomacy in favor of the military option. it's an amazing stance, given how much was focused on an obvious desire to change regimes in Syria. is that effort really to be devoid of diplomacy?

That speech is about a determination to war, not a 'exhaustion' of diplomatic means. It's an excuse; a justification; more than it's an explanation.

"We worked with inspectors . . ."

Did they not cut the inspections short by signaling impending military action?

Did they really want Assad to be the beneficiary of negotiations; weren't they engaged in making certain his opposition was armed against the regime?

All that she outlined is made completely insincere by the actual level of commitment the administration has made negotiating with EITHER side of the Syrian conflict.

It may well be true that the administration pursued diplomatic options to their own satisfaction, but I don't believe they can credibly claim they've exhausted them; especially since their military option has such a dubious outcome and consequence, and will never be solely successful in doing anything much more than adding an additional measure of violence to the conflict.


Bolo Boffin

(23,796 posts)
12. Welp.
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 06:50 PM
Sep 2013

You've managed to miss a little bit of the speech.

Some have asked, given our collective war-weariness, why we cannot use non-military tools to achieve the same end. My answer to this question is: We have exhausted the alternatives.

For more than a year, we have pursued countless policy tools short of military force to try to dissuade Assad from using chemical weapons. We have engaged the Syrians directly — and at our request, the Russians, the U.N., and the Iranians sent similar messages — but when scuds and other horrific weapons didn’t quell the Syrian rebellion, Assad began using chemical weapons on a small scale multiple times, as the United States concluded in June.

Faced with this growing evidence of several small-scale subsequent attacks, we redoubled our efforts. We backed the U.N. diplomatic process and tried to get the parties back to the negotiating table, recognizing that a political solution is the best way to reduce all forms of threat. We provided more humanitarian assistance. And on chemical weapons specifically, we assembled and went public with compelling and frightening evidence of the regime’s use.

We worked with the U.N. to create a group of inspectors and then worked for more than six months to get them access to the country on the logic that perhaps the presence of an investigative team in the country might deter future attacks or, if not, at a minimum, we thought perhaps a shared evidentiary base could convince Russia or Iran — itself a victim of Saddam Hussein’s monstrous chemical weapons attacks in 1987-1988 — to cast loose a regime that was gassing its people. We expanded and accelerated our assistance to the Syrian opposition. We supported the U.N. Commission of Inquiry.

Russia, often backed by China, has blocked every relevant action in the Security Council, even mild condemnations of the use of chemical weapons that did ascribe blame to any particular party. In Assad’s cost-benefit calculus, he must have weighed the military benefits of using this hideous weapon against the recognition that he could get away with it because Russia would have Syria’s back in the Security Council.

And on August 21, he staged the largest chemical weapons attack in a quarter-century while U.N. inspectors were sitting on the other side of town.

It is only after the United States pursued these nonmilitary options without achieving the desired results of deterring chemical weapons use that the president concluded that a limited military strike is the only way to prevent Assad from employing chemical weapons as if they are a conventional weapon of war.


I think that's a pretty tight analysis of what the US has been doing all this time, why it's not working, and why this next step is necessary.

You say they cut the inspectors short, but they worked for six months to get the inspectors in there in the first place. And Assad responded by staging his worse chemical attack yet while the inspectors were there. This is what I know: Elizabeth Warren and other Democrats I trust walked into a room with the United States' evidence for the August 21 attack and came out saying Assad did it. More and more countries are saying this as well. So I'm sticking with the guy that ended the Iraq War, is ending the Afghanistan War, and kept the American role in the Libyan conflict to the barest of minimums. YMMV.

bigtree

(85,996 posts)
13. no, I read that
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 07:18 PM
Sep 2013

I call that abandonment of a half-hearted, cynical, self-serving insincere effort at diplomacy.

Further, I insist that there will still be a need for the U.S. to commit itself to diplomatic means, even after any military action. Calling it 'exhausted' is self-serving to their determination to war.

Bolo Boffin

(23,796 posts)
14. Then you're handwaving what they are saying.
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 07:28 PM
Sep 2013

Powers follows that part I quoted with arguments why diplomacy can't be expected to work in this situation. I'd quote it, but once handwaved, twice shy.

bigtree

(85,996 posts)
16. well, yeah, in a way
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 08:09 PM
Sep 2013

. . . because, I don't see how it can be seen as a sincere effort.

Behind the abandonment of diplomacy is an open ambition to spark a change in regimes as part of their military intervention effort. That's even further aggravated by their open suspicion of the affiliations of the Syrian resistance that's expected to step into the vacuum they hope to create with their military strikes.

Understanding that you need to believe that bombing Syrian targets is a natural, reasonable, and somewhat effective progression of actions in order to accept that diplomacy has ceased to be an option, or has been 'exhausted'.

To me, military action is just a choice - not an inevitable option that should naturally follow exasperation with diplomacy. It's an 'either, or' more than it's a one-two step to war.

What Powers offered was an excuse or a justification for their abandonment of diplomacy - not a credible or complete explanation of her statement that diplomatic means have been exhausted. Not in light of her reasoning that military action should necessarily follow.

Bolo Boffin

(23,796 posts)
20. How can diplomacy work when one side's getting away with gassing the other side?
Sun Sep 8, 2013, 12:17 AM
Sep 2013

Is that any basis to start talks to end the war?

Ambassador Powers says it best:

At this stage, the diplomatic process is stalled because one side has just been gassed on a massive scale and the other side so far feels it has gotten away with it. What would words in the form of belated diplomatic condemnation achieve? What could the International Criminal Court really do, even if Russia or China were to allow a referral? Would a drawn-out legal process really affect the immediate calculus of Assad and those who ordered chemical weapons attacks?

We could try again to pursue economic sanctions, but even if Russia budged, would more asset freezes, travel bans, and banking restrictions convince Assad not to use chemical weapons again, when he has a pipeline to the resources of Hezbollah and Iran? Does anybody really believe that deploying the same approaches we have tried for the last year will suddenly be effective?

Of course, this isn’t the only legitimate question being raised. People are asking, shouldn’t the United States work through the Security Council on an issue that so clearly implicates international peace and security? The answer is, of course, yes. We could if we would — we could — we would if we could, but we can’t.

Every day for the two-and-a-half years of the Syrian conflict, we have shown how seriously we take the U.N. Security Council and our obligations to enforce international peace and security. Since 2011, Russia and China have vetoed three separate Security Council resolutions condemning the Syrian regime’s violence or promoting a political solution to the conflict.

This year alone, Russia has blocked at least three statements expressing humanitarian concern and calling for humanitarian access to besieged cities in Syria. And in the past two months, Russia has blocked two resolutions condemning the generic use of chemical weapons and two press statements expressing concern about their use.

We believe that more than 1,400 people were killed in Damascus on August 21, and the Security Council could not even agree to put out a press statement expressing its disapproval.

The international system that was founded in 1945, a system we designed specifically to respond to the kinds of horrors we saw play out in World War II, has not lived up to its promise or its responsibilities in the case of Syria. And it is naive to think that Russia is on the verge of changing its position and allowing the U.N. Security Council to assume its rightful role as the enforcer of international peace and security.


Russia will not let the Security Council release a press statement condemning chemical weapons use in general, not even mentioning Syria! They're not going to let the Security Council refer Assad to the ICC. How is diplomacy expected to work in this situation?

bigtree

(85,996 posts)
22. that's just gobblygook, considering the casualties inflicted by the armed resistance
Sun Sep 8, 2013, 10:13 AM
Sep 2013

. . . and a sure recipe for perpetual war on Syria, considering that they consider diplomacy dead to them in Syria.

Diplomacy isn't exhausted in Syria - it's difficult and likely stymied by our own pre-conditions - and it's been abandoned by the Obama administration in favor of a military option with great risks and a dubious outcome.

The problems Powers described are no more intractable than they will be after military strikes. In fact, military strikes will certainly make her words self-fulfilling. Yet, those diplomatic efforts remain as an option. They're not automatically supplanted by military action just because the U.S. has met resistance to those efforts. They are as much of an option today as they will be tomorrow.

I think what Powers, and others who argue that she's made a credible case to back up her assertion that diplomacy is exhausted, are really saying is that diplomatic efforts, so far, haven't made an impact on Syrian intentions to use chemical weapons. To solidify that point, we're to assume that military action is some panacea to it all which is just waiting in the wings; being denied to those who want to move forward to a successful resolution of the confrontation with the Syrian regime. That's the ONLY way you can suppose that diplomacy is dead there; only if there's some other option which is considered viable.

I don't see military action as a credible alternative to forcing Assad's hand on chemical weapons. I see it as an escalation of the conflict with a dubious and risky prospect of consequences and results. In the end, the diplomatic option will still exist; albeit, to this point, no more realistic than bombing Syria into submission.

Send their asses back to their diplomatic offices and forget about rallying other nations to war. Then, maybe folks will view American intentions more credibly and our diplomacy can become more than a cynical exercise in our zeal to change regimes there.

leftstreet

(36,108 posts)
15. It's tragic Obama hasn't kept everyone up on this
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 07:31 PM
Sep 2013

Thanks for posting that excerpt

I can barely tolerate listening to Bloody Sam Sunstein

bhikkhu

(10,715 posts)
18. He's always gotten flack for nuance, gray areas, and carefully worded long sentences
Sat Sep 7, 2013, 11:02 PM
Sep 2013

I don't think the criticism should revolve around the framing of the message. I think he has seen the evidence and made up his mind of the right thing to do.

I can agree or disagree, and congress gets to agree or disagree, but I think he has a pretty good grasp of the options. A "no" vote would be against what he decided is the best course, but if he gets a no vote then I imagine it will be on to other options, and putting the initiative more squarely back on the UN. Which is fine with me too.

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
21. Because diplomacy has been tried and Russia has blocked every attempt.
Sun Sep 8, 2013, 12:31 AM
Sep 2013

Name the forum, Russia can block any action, regardless if it's the UN, the International Court or the Hague. Unless Russia stops bullying and become constructive, nothing happens on the diplomacy front. It is time those trying to blame the current state of affairs on President Obama, Kerry and Powers own up to the fact that NOTHING along the lines of diplomacy happens unless Russia is on-board.

bigtree

(85,996 posts)
23. perhaps it's because of our own preconditions for these negotiations they've offered
Sun Sep 8, 2013, 10:19 AM
Sep 2013

it's easy to view diplomacy as a continuing option when the next step contemplated by the administration carries with it such a dubious prospect for success and such enormous risks of simply exacerbating the situation.

Diplomacy's no more dead in Syria than their military option guarantees success in influencing Assad to our pov. Both are crapshoots; only one carries the risk of certain deaths in Syria at our own hands.

Harmony Blue

(3,978 posts)
24. U.S. demands are in essence
Sun Sep 8, 2013, 10:20 AM
Sep 2013

to publicly pants the Russians on the world stage. Do you not see why the Russians would be against that humiliation?

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