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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAssad Cheered in Syria for Canny Survivor’s Delaying Tactics
By Donna Abu-Nasr - Sep 17, 2013
Osama Salloum was on the balcony of his Damascus apartment last week when a procession of honking cars celebrating President Bashar al-Assads birthday passed by.
The 34-year-old accountant joined the youths waving flags and singing patriotic songs not only because he wanted to mark Assads Sept. 11 birthday, but also to express gratitude for the governments wise policies that prevented a U.S. strike, he said. Syrian diplomacy has borne the best of fruits.
Assads agreement to the seizure and elimination of Syrias chemical weapons was his first significant political concession to Russia and the international community since the conflict started in 2011. Rather than weakness, supporters like Salloum are lauding the move as a diplomatic coup.
While averting a U.S.-led attack that might have tipped the balance in favor of his rebel opponents, Assad is buying time and extending his Alawite familys 42-year rule of the majority Sunni Muslim country. The diplomatic triumphs will boost the chances of a political settlement, Prime Minister Wael al-Halaqi told state-run television today.
Assad knows how to play this game, Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar, said from Washington. He knows how to manipulate his opponent. Hes a master at that and thats what you need in order to survive ruling as a minority regime in Syria.
more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-16/assad-cheered-in-damascus-for-canny-survivor-s-delaying-tactics.html
Xipe Totec
(43,890 posts)Sand Wind
(1,573 posts)Assad cannot pretend to still being the mayor of Damascus. That's why he used his chemicals.
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leveymg
(36,418 posts)Also, that rebel chemical weapons stockpiles were found in Jobar in July? That was reported long before attack and even longer before the launch site was finally revealed to be Jobar, a contested area (or rebel controlled as your map shows) which is adjacent to and due east of the primary target site for the larger, deadlier type of rocket used on 8/21. See, http://rt.com/news/damascus-syria-chemical-weapons-082/
Now, put two-and-two together.
The launch site for the deadliest attack was not from "regime-controlled territory" as the Kerry report originally claimed. The eastern missile site was originally reported to have been the October War Museum, but that is about 2 kms northwest. The UN report established that the flight path of these larger rockets that struck Ein Tarma was almost due east, which would make Jobar the likeliest place where the 333 mm rockets were set off.
Also, you should know, al Qaeda among many militia groups have rockets that are virtually identical to those used on 8/21.
Sarin gas is nothing but highly concentrated insecticide, and it's just one type of chemical weapon available inside Syria. Note that these improvised rockets were launched from Jobar district, a contest area, where these chemicals and weapons materials were found:
http://nodisinfo.com/Home/terrorist-chemical-lab-uncovered-syrias-jobar-suburb-damascus/
- MORE VIDEOS AT http://nodisinfo.com/Home/terrorist-chemical-lab-uncovered-syrias-jobar-suburb-damascus/
That map is additional evidence that it was a militia or faction operating within Jobar, not the military, that launched the rockets in the eastern suburb that killed most of the victims. Thanks for posting that!
leveymg
(36,418 posts)launched the improvised 333mm rockets that killed the vast majority of the victims who that report states were located in Zamala.
The HRW report also has a significant map which shows clearly that there were two target areas, not 12 as the Kerry Report claimed, and that entirely different types of ordinance was used against the neighborhood in the western part of Damascus hit with 140mm standard military rockets.
HRW Report Silent About State Dept. Allegation that All Attacks Launched from Regime-Controlled Territory
1) HRW Map of Targeted Damascus Neighborhoods (highlighted in Red)
One interesting aspect of the HRW report is that while the authors cite witnesses as stating that the smaller, more accurate rockets were observed to have come from the direction of Syrian military bases, the report is silent as to where the larger, deadlier improvised rockets were launched.* Nonetheless, the HRW paper specifies that the improvised devices killed far more people:
HRW states that witnesses counted some seven or eight of the smaller but more accurate 140mm rockets launched into the southwestern neighborhoods of Moadamiya near the military airfield at Mezzeh. The report states:
The other Sarin gas strikes were in a distant neighborhood identified as Zamalka, 16 kilometers to the East on the other side of Damascus. It becomes clear that these improvised rockets could not have been launched from the same site, as they simply do not have the range to reach any of the eastern targets, particularly the easternmost neighborhood of Duma that is 20 kilometers away from the Mezzah airfield and army base:
< . . .>
Our analysis does not exclude the possibility that additional weapons delivery systems were used in the Eastern and Western Ghouta attacks that have not yet been identified and analyzed. However, the two analyzed by Human Rights Watch are the only known rocket systems identified as associated with the attacks, according to local activists who have closely inspected both the affected areas.
I therefore must revise my earlier assessment, and now acknowledge that in the Eastern suburbs it is entirely possible for just a handful of these larger rockets to have killed several hundreds of people by area saturation with large amounts of poison gas. Please, see, http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023576617
Something else that HRW tells us is that the large improvised rockets had to have been launched from relatively close range only a few kilometers away. Here, my earlier thinking appears to be confirmed. The State Dept. report alleges that all the rockets fired that night were from regime-controlled territory. However, when we look at the State Department map, below, and compare it with the HRW map, a couple things become clear. First, the area in the pink (regime-controlled) is at least six or seven miles from Duma, which the State Dept. identified as the easternmost target. Therefore, either the map or the State Departments statement that it located the launching site for the larger rockets in western Damascus appears to be incorrect. Furthermore, HRW casts doubt on the conclusion drawn by the State Dept. that all the gas rockets were launched from inside the indicated government-controlled area. Finally, HRW was unable to confirm most of alleged target areas identified by the Kerry report, of which the State Department shows 12 (see 2nd map, at bottom of article) and the HRW could only confirm two.
2) State Department Report Map:
That brings us to the final question raised here. Why would the Syrian Army use crude, improvised munitions when as the French Report points out, it has large numbers of other types of modern chemical munitions and rockets, some of them with ranges that reach out to 75 kilometers and further with greater accuracy.
Indeed, this just reinforces persistent doubts that the Syrian Army units under the control of the Assad regime used these improvised munitions that killed most of the victims on 8/21. As Brown Moses Blog pointed out in June, these things were introduced into Syria last year and have previously been used there with conventional high explosive warheads by Hezbollah militias. Below, we see an IRAM that was previously identified by that source as having been used by a militia, not the Syrian military. One can see that it is closely related to the type, shown above, used in the Damascus gas attack. http://brown-moses.blogspot.com/2013/06/diy-weapons-in-syria-hezbollah-deploys.html
IRAM Used Inside Syria by Militia Prior to 8/21
The HRW report and other new evidence do not support the conclusion drawn that the Syrian regime controlled all the gas rockets launched that night. While video has been presented that the military has tested or had demonstrated this type of rocket, by no means is it established beyond a reasonable doubt that it was units under orders of the civilian authorities that actually carried out the attack on Zamalka using improvised rockets.
It appears, contrary to the assertions made, that a lot of people in the Mideast besides the Syrian military have cobbled together their own IRAMs and could have both the means and motive to have used them in Eastern Damascus that terrible night. Details of the HRW report raise additional questions about the accuracy of key parts of the State Department report, including the location and number of targets, and that the Syrian military, alone, had the means to carry out the 8/21 attacks.
Al-Qaeda IRAM:
Similar IRAMs have been manufactured and used by a variety of groups, including al-Qaeda, across the region as we see here:
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* Note that the Sept. 10 HRW study does not repeat initial reports from opposition activists that located the possible launch point of the rockets that struck Zamalka as the October War Museum, which is a mere 1.25 miles northwest of Zamalka, where most of the casualties occurred: "Activists in the area told him that 18 missiles, carrying what they said was a chemical agent, fired from the direction of the October War Panorama, a military museum in Damascus city, and of Mezzeh military airport, hit Zamalka, Ayn Tarma, Douma, and Moadamiya." http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/08/21/syria-witnesses-describe-alleged-chemical-attacks