Is anyone else paying attention to the German Elections?

[hrmjustin]

I believe the polls open at 2 AM EST which is 1 hour 20 minutes away. I wonder what time the polls close and if any of the cable news channels like BBC or CNN international will cover the results tomorrow.

Any predictions?

[Cleita]

1. Sort of.

Think Merkel will get it. It seems the Germans like her because their economy is doing fine even though her austerity policies in the rest of Europe have been disastrous, but apparently those people, like the Greeks don't have a vote.

[hrmjustin]

4. I assume she will win but I hope if she does she wins less seats.

[Cleita]

5. That's a possibility because her win will be narrow. n/t

[hrmjustin]

6. I wonder if there will be a coalition.

Looks like it. Maybe it will moderate her.

[Cleita]

9. That's what they were saying on Al Jazeera, that she had to get a coalition. n/t

[DFW]

22. She has never NOT needed a coalition

ALL German governments of the last few decades have been coalitions. It's rare that a party wins an absolute majority of seats in a national election here in Germany.

[DetlefK]

16. "apparently those people don't have a vote" ???

Why should the rest of Europe get a vote in the german elections???

Why shouldn't countries that are influenced by US-policies get a vote in US-elections???

Sounds like a brain-fart to me.

[pampango]

18. If a business pollutes my air or water, I should have some input on its policies.

It really should not matter whether that business is in the US or across the border in Canada or Mexico. (Or in France or Poland from a German perspective.) Or that I have no direct connection to that business, other than suffering from its pollution.

In reality, of course, it does matter a great deal. (Canadians really have no say in US pollution laws even though they suffer greatly from our power plant emissions.) Which is why German elections are just for Germans and American elections are just for Americans.

You are right. If the standard was that eligible voters in an election should be all the people who are affected by the policies of that country, the whole world should be voting in US elections. And perhaps all of Europe should have a vote in German elections.

Obviously, none of that is going to happen - at least at no time in the foreseeable future. Liberals are not good at accepting the conservative slogan "That's just the way it is. Get used to it. Don't try to change it." However, giving people a voice in the issues that affect their lives is very much a liberal cause.

[DetlefK]

20. Well, there IS a european parliament.

But it doesn't have much power in terms of getting stuff forward: That's still hashed out in backroom-deals among the governments.

However, everything those government-leaders decide and negotiate in terms of EU-policy still has to be ratified afterwards by the european parliament or it doesn't become law.

[pampango]

27. As weak as the European Parliament is, it is SOMETHING.

Canadians and Mexicans have no such formal body to influence US policies that affect them.

[Union Scribe]

2. I'll probably keep up via Der Spiegel's site

Live coverage starting 11am (eastern) tomorrow morning.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/germany_votes_2013/

[hrmjustin]

3. Thanks for the link.

[rdharma]

7. Merkel third term

Coalition more to the left.

[hrmjustin]

8. I hope she gets pulled like you say to the left.

[rdharma]

10. I see a schwarz-rot koalition in the works n/t

[DFW]

25. In absolute terms, she's already more to the left than half our Democrats

She's not going to reduce income taxes or the punishing Mehrwertsteuer (Value Added Tax--already at 19% and is even levied on the gasoline tax--tax on the tax!), and she is not going to make health insurance harder to get. Income taxes at the "top" are already at 50% (de facto, when mandatory supplements are added on) and you don't have to earn $200,000 to get there, either. My daughter in Frankfurt was already paying that rate at a gross yearly salary of 110,000 euros.

Germany is not responsible for Greece's woes any more than Greece is responsible for Germany's situation. Each country still determines local policy. Germany didn't allow workers to retire at 55 and receive full pensions while doing it, and they do pursue tax evaders. Greece went the other way. If their elected reps decided that, it's Greece's business. It certainly is not Germany's job to invade Greece and force them to do things like they do in Germany. They've been there and done that, and had enough of it, luckily.

There's a reason that America reactionaries (I refuse to call them "conservatives," because they are no such thing) scream about European "socialism" even in countries like Germany that practice no such thing. While there is plenty of inequality here, too, it is nothing like the huge number of so-called middle class Americans that are struggling just to make ends meet. By the way, the last Social-Democratic chancellor of Germany went to become a lobbyist for the Russian energy firm, Gazprom. Now THERE's a dedicated Socialist, right?

By the way, in Germany, sitting members of the parliament are allowed by law to simultaneously be sitting on the boards of directors of large companies. How's THAT for a conflict of interests? Not very socialistic, if you ask me.

[MADem]

11. If Merkel wins, she beats the Iron Lady in terms of time in charge... nt

[hrmjustin]

12. How long are their terms? 4 or 5 years?

[MADem]

14. Four, according to our Wikifriends...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Chancellor_of_the_Federal_Republic_of_Germany

[DonCoquixote]

13. If merkel wins

It means Germany will be seeing the EU as just another attempt to form a "reich."

[DetlefK]

17. Blutwurst! Sauerkraut! Lederhosen! Kraftfahrzeugführerschein!

You really seem to know nothing of the german mentality.

And that's no "if" Merkel wins: Her party, the christian-democratic-union CDU, has the most votes in the polls. The big question is whether the junior-partner of her coalition, the FDP, liberal capitalists, will be able to pass the 5%-threshold. If they don't, the CDU will most likely ally with the social-democrats, like they did in her first term.

[DonCoquixote]

38. I know enough

That the Germans are leading the austerity charge; that is shameful enough, especially since they got their power by having many of the strong social programs Merkel wants to cut. If the German mentality keeps Merkel in power, then it says something about the German mind.

George W. Bush - Out of Office
Tony Blair - Out of Office
Berlusconi - Soon to be out of Office
Merkel- Still in the driver's seat and driving over flowers and children.

Deutschland Uber Alles!

[DetlefK]

39. You think, they pushed austerity-measures for nationalistic reasons? To gain power?

The reason is far simpler: Money.
Germany is one of the richest countries in the EU. If there had been a bail-out-policy put in place, the EU would have had to rpovide that money.
And would would have been asked to provide that money to the EU?
Germany.

[DonCoquixote]

40. nationalistic reasons? To gain power?

Money is the main means of fulfilling, as you out it "nationalistic reasons? To gain power?" What amuses me is that back when the EU was useful for them to push other countries around, they loved it. Wen it came time for them to give, they hated it. Yes, the British and the French also showed this, but they were weaker, in part because they refused to embrace social programs to the extent Germany used to, key word, USED to.

[JDPriestly]

15. I have been so busy I have not been able to follow it as closely as I had hoped to.

According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine, it is a really close race.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/neue-allensbach-umfrage-regierung-und-opposition-gleichauf-12582910.html

With polls that close, I think the odds favor a Merkel win. But the polls could be wrong. And I could be wrong about a Merkel win.

[malaise]

19. Merkel's party should have a tiny majority but she will have problems

forming a coalition.

[Yo_Mama]

21. I am, and it is an interesting one this year.

The real question seems to be whether the coalition that will reelect Merkel will have to be with the SPD, and also whether the Euro Skeptics (new) take votes from the FDP (more conservative) or from die Linke (kind of communist).

The head of the SPD has said that he won't partner with Merkel, but I think they will. The Greens are set up to lose some power in this election too.

For those who don't follow this, there has been a court-mandated change in the way seats are apportioned as a result of the election which could influence the outcome.

The parties are (CDU/CSU) considered center-right. Merkel.
SDP, considered center-left. Steinbruck (Merkel's opponent).
FDP, losing votes this cycle, sort of moderate Republican by US standards.
Buendnis 90/Die Gruenen, Alliance 90/the Greens, losing votes this cycle.
die Linke, the Left, and this is up in the air, they could gain.
Finally the Euro-Skeptics, Alternative for Germany, which is new this cycle.

The Germans vote twice - once for a district representative and once for a party. They can split the vote, but even if they don't, a party that is too small to ever win a seat in an outright election may have enough total votes to get some of the allocated seats in the Bundestag (Parliament). This allows minority interests national representation. These representatives are pulled from the party lists.

The base to get some of those allocated seats is 5%, and the Euro Skeptics may pass the base this election.

[rucky]

23. All I know is there's a Pirate Party

and I'm rooting for 'em..

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x14sopo_germany-pirate-party-behind-drone-stunt-at-merkel-rally_news

[JVS]

24. Prediction: CDU-SPD coalition.

Merkel's own party has become more popular, but their coalition party the FDP is polling poorly.

[DFW]

26. CDU-SPD coalition highly possible but not desirable

Since I live in Germany, and my wife and daughters are German citizens, I am obviously paying attention to the German elections.

I see a "grand coalition" as the best of the worst possible outcomes, really.

The business-friendly FDP has lost it's message, and are looking, in vain, for a raison d'être, and may not get the 5% they need to stay in parliament. If they're out, Merkel has problem. A forced coalition between the CDU and the SPD means a lot of gridlock and watered down legislation with each holding the other hostage so nothing substantial gets done in either direction. It wouldn't be the first time.

There is always the third possibility, a red-green-red coalition of minority parties: the center-left SPD, the Greens and die Linke, who are the unapologetic successors to the East German SED, who shot people trying to flee over the Berlin Wall, and honored their indoctrinated trained thugs who did the shooting. That is a marriage made in hell, and the SPD has (so far) wisely refrained from even discussing the possibility.

If, by any chance, the euro-skeptic AfD get in, I doubt Merkel would want to have a coalition with them any more than the SPD wants to have a coalition with die Linke, as Merkel is solidly committed to the Euro.

[JVS]

47. What about Schwarz-Grün or Schwarz-Linke?

[DFW]

48. Schwarz-Grün is an outside possibility

In the TV round with all the party heads last night, Trittin said he thought the CDU and the Grünen were too far apart on most issues to form any manageable kind of coalition, but Merkel didn't rule it out. Steinbrück said it was Merkel's call as the winner of the biggest bloc of seats (nice way of ducking the question).

Any coalition with Die Linken by either CDU or SPD is out for this round. Die Linken are still carrying too much baggage from East Germany. They are led by Gregor Gysi, a clever lawyer who prospered under the former East German regime--something one didn't do unless you were eating out of their hand. They have too many unapologetic supporters of the shooters at the Berlin Wall to be forgiven so far. Too many people jailed for their politics, and relatives of people shot to death at the Wall are still around to remind the rest of Germany who is left in that party, and all their propaganda about "social justice" and "worker-friendly" policies fall flat when one takes a look at their dear leader. Gysi is very media savvy, and knows how to sell the product, but even Oskar Lafontaine, the working class former governor of the Saar, who joined them after the SPD was not far enough left for his tastes, has since left them.

Also, Die Linken have this "tax 'em to death" mantra similar to France's Hollande. Not only is Hollande not doing too well with his efforts, but in Germany, the expression "Enteignung ('de-owning')" is exactly the phrase the Nazis used to justify taking Jews' possessions after sending them off to be gassed--not the sort of connotation that warms the hearts of many Germans these days. Die Linken haven't used that specific word (they're very dogmatic, but they're not crazy), but their election posters here said everything but. Merkel isn't talking about lowering Germany's high taxes for now, but she isn't going to listen to demands for raising them either until a big portion of the German middle class is doing a lot better than just getting by.

[hrmjustin]

28. Polls close in an hour.

[hrmjustin]

29. German exit polls.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/merkel-bidding-3rd-term-german-election-20333003


An exit poll indicates that Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives have emerged by far the strongest force in Germany's election, though it's unclear whether her coalition partners will stay in parliament.

The ARD television exit poll put support for Merkel's Union bloc at 42 percent. But it put her coalition partners, the pro-business Free Democrats, on 4.7 percent — just below the minimum to keep their seats.

Challenger Peer Steinbrueck's Social Democrats won 26 percent and the Greens 8 percent, according to the exit poll. The hard-line Left Party won 8.5 percent.

The survey showed a new anti-euro party with 4.9 percent — uncertain of winning seats.

[dipsydoodle]

30. As I write looks like she could have an overall majority.

.

[treestar]

31. No.

I did not know they were having them.

Is Merkel's party in any danger of losing?

[hrmjustin]

32. She has won and will go into coalition likely.

[treestar]

33. I didn't even realize she was a conservative

Though a conservative in Germany is probably nothing like here. I remember her for her unfortunate back rub from the Shrub.

[hrmjustin]

34. She says this is her last term. Yes she is conservative and is in favovr of austerity.

[hrmjustin]

35. Cvnn says she migvht gvet an outright majority.

[treestar]

36. Yes, she did have a small party she needed in a coalition

that might not win? So an outright majority might be necessary?

[hrmjustin]

37. Her current partner did not get 5% so they will get no seats.

[malaise]

41. Landslide

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/22/us-germany-election-idUSBRE98K06220130922
<snip>

Chancellor Angela Merkel won a landslide personal victory in a German election on Sunday, putting her within reach of the first absolute majority in parliament in half a century, a ringing endorsement of her steady leadership in the euro crisis.

Partial results put her conservative bloc - the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) -- on 42.5 percent, which if confirmed would be their strongest score since 1990, the year of German unification.

The outcome could give Merkel an edge of a few seats over the combined opposition in the Bundestag lower house for the first time since conservative Chancellor Konrad Adenauer achieved that feat in 1957. But she may still need a coalition partner for her third term when the final votes are counted.

[hrmjustin]

42. Did not see that coming. There was high turnout as well so she will claim a mandate.

[malaise]

43. Same here

the polls were clearly wrong

[Zorra]

44. Darn. Merkel totally hates LGBT. First Russia, now Germany. Looks like fascism

is making a comeback over there.

[hrmjustin]

45. I did not know she did not like LGBT people. What is her history on it?

[Zorra]

49. Angela Merkel Says No to Repairing Inequality

http://www.advocate.com/politics/marriage-equality/2012/12/05/german-chancellor-angela-merkel-says-no-equality-gay-couples

Angela Merkel, Who Opposes Gay Marriage, Likely To Remain In Power

http://www.ontopmag.com/article.aspx?id=16478&MediaType=1&Category=24

Germany: Anti-Marriage Equality Chancellor Keeps Her Job

http://purpleunions.com/blog/tag/angela-merkel

[Mellow Drama]

46. The swastika is going to make a comeback

I am really scared for Europe now that the Germans are actually now going to be worse than they were when Hitler was running the place.