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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHow To Beat Hillary Clinton
Joe Hagans cover story peeks inside Hillary Clintons proto-campaign, and one of the most interesting things that emerges is the underlying awareness of vulnerability among her supporters. Six months ago, Clinton was a quasi incumbent dominating the field. Today it is finally possible to envision the circumstances that would lead to her defeat. The question before the Clinton campaign is whether she can head off the nearly inevitable liberal challenge. Peter Beinart recently wrote a long Daily Beast essay predicting the rise of a new left in American politics. The first piece of it described, persuasively, the rise of the millennial generation, which is more liberal than the generations that have come before it. The second piece of the essay described, also persuasively, the likelihood of an economically populist uprising of the Democratic base against the party Establishment.
The flaw in the argument is the hinge between the first and the second. Beinart went from showing that younger Democrats are more liberal than Americans generally to assuming they are more liberal than older Democrats. But theres no real evidence thats true. Millenial Democrats are simply more likely than older people to agree with standard Democratic Party liberalism. That is to say theres nothing about the millennials that is likely to make them internally change the direction of the party. And, in fact, Bill de Blasio whose primary victory provided the news hook for Beinarts argument received higher support from the old than the young.
The coming liberal backlash against Clinton has two broad sources, neither of which is generational. The first is financial regulation. Too big to fail is the great sleeper issue of American politics. Its power has never been exploited because of a quirk of timing. The 2008 election came so closely on the heels of the financial crisis that neither campaign, already committed to preexisting strategies, had the wherewithal to organize a populist response. The 2012 campaign occurred after President Obama had already carried out his policy response (Dodd-Frank) and Mitt Romney was essentially the candidate of Wall Street, for whom the less voters thought about high finance, the better. Dodd-Frank has decreased the systemic risk posed by the financial industry. But it hasnt eradicated it, and it certainly hasnt satisfied the widespread, justifiable desire to minimize the economic and political power wielded by finance. There are proposals floating around Congress to break up the big banks that enjoy the simultaneous benefit of appealing to the Democratic left and appealing to the populist center. If Clinton doesnt grasp on to such a plan, one of her opponents will, and shell have no response.
What could give the financial regulation issue true destructive power is a narrative about money and corruption. Democratic primaries always feature a liberal insurgent. But the liberal insurgency doesnt always rely on more liberal policy ideas. Liberal insurgent candidates instead appeal to an ideal of purity and good government. George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Gary Hart in 1984, Jerry Brown in 1992, Bill Bradley in 2000, and Barack Obama in 2008 all presented themselves as cleaner and less compromised than the Establishment candidates. Not all of them ran on substantively more liberal platforms. Some of them, like Carter and Brown, arguably had less liberal policies. (Brown, unbelievably, ran on a flat tax, yet still established himself as the darling of the left.) And here is where Clinton has exposed herself to a potentially glaring weakness. Two weeks ago, the Washington Post linked Clinton to Jeffrey Thompson, who financed secretive get-out-the-vote operations for D.C. mayor Vincent Gray and apparently played the same role for Clintons 2008 campaign. The New Republics Alec MacGillis has an explosive profile of Doug Band, the Bill Clinton body man and consummate political sleazoid who insinuated himself in Clintons inner circle and learned to monetize his own role.
cont'
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/09/how-to-beat-hillary-clinton.html
L0oniX
(31,493 posts)Hobo
(771 posts)Glad to know you are the arbitrator on who is a real Dem and who is not. When it is more likely who agrees with you and who doesn't.
If you don't like Hillary, don't support her. Stop trying to label everyone.
Congratulations on your promotion to dog...err...I mean god.
Hobo
L0oniX
(31,493 posts)Scuba
(53,475 posts)NYC_SKP
(68,644 posts)And I live in California.
Warren. 2016.
DURHAM D
(32,952 posts)by reducing medicare and adopting the chained CPI no Democrat can win the WH for the next two elections. The brand is too sullied.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,454 posts)dionysus
(26,467 posts)UT UP YER DUKES!1!!1!

leftstreet
(38,739 posts)If she runs, she wins
She'll probably only be a 1 termer though
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)Clinton and Christie. Clinton will need the left to defeat Christie who will pull a lot of the New Dems (Old Repubs) back to the GOP.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)They've convinced themselves that they lost the last two elections because their nominees were "too moderate",they won't be convinced to vote for another perceived moderate this time.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)so get used to the idea. This is not a new political maneuver. George W. Bush* beat it to death.
One thing that helped then Senator Obama defeat Hillary Clinton in the primary was her vote to authorize Bush* to go into Iraq. Many Dems said they would never vote for any candidate as President who used their vote on that issue as a political tool designed to bolster their Presidential odds. And Dems remembered that during Hillary's run against Barack Obama. She is more hawkish than many Dems prefer and she is not a liberal. So I think the statement if she runs, she wins is a bit generous.
Welcome to DU.
Sam
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)And she won't even legitimately win those as it will be the PTB who will shove her down our collective throats (much as they did "viable" Kerry in 2004) as the nominee and if the GOP runs a strong candidate, she's toast. The progressives won't touch her and will go third-party. She wins nothing.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)oh, uh, wait a minute...never mind.
leftstreet
(38,739 posts)1) McCain was a joke candidate
2) Hillary divisive for the base
3) Obama got the Kennedy endorsement
4) Obama campaigned against Hillary and won
DonCoquixote
(13,939 posts)until Hillary is in office.
http://www.correntewire.com/can_hillary_save_us_from_a_grand_bargain
"Clinton adopted the manifesto, "A New Agenda for the New Decade." Here's a very brief excerpt.
An ever-growing share of the federal budget today consists of automatic transfers from working Americans to retirees.
Moreover, the costs of the big entitlements for the elderly -- Social Security and Medicare -- are growing at rates that will eventually bankrupt them and that could leave little to pay for everything else government does.
We cant just spend our way out of the problem; we must find a way to contain future costs.
The federal government already spends seven times as much on the elderly as it does on children. To allow that ratio to grow even more imbalanced would be grossly unfair to todays workers and future generations.
In addition, Social Security and Medicare need to be modernized to reflect conditions not envisioned when they were created in the 1930s and the 1960s.
Social Security, for example, needs a stronger basic benefit to bolster its critical role in reducing poverty in old age. Medicare needs to offer retirees more choices and a modern benefit package that includes prescription drugs.
Such changes, however, will only add to the cost of the programs unless they are accompanied by structural reforms that restrain their growth and limit their claim on the working families whose taxes support the programs."
"
Make structural reforms in Social Security and Medicare that slow their future cost growth, modernize benefits (including a prescription drug benefit for Medicare), and give beneficiaries more choice and control over their retirement and health security.
Create Retirement Savings Accounts to enable low-income Americans to save for their own retirement.
[Source: The Hyde Park Declaration 00-DLC7 on Aug 1, 2000]
The "stronger basic benefit" is straight out of the Bowles-Simpson proposal, "The Moment Of Truth."
This is very deceptive, really, since only a relatively small number of the poorest Social Security beneficiaries will meet the criteria to qualify for this benefit, according to CBO. I'm not on my computer with the "bookmarks," but this information can be pretty easily "DuckedDucked, Binged or Googled." And here's a link to the Bowles-Simpson proposal, The Moment Of Truth."
DURHAM D
(32,952 posts)The Cave is calling you home.
DonCoquixote
(13,939 posts)than I suppose it is, along with the outsourced labor that got put under here.
I do not understand how people think that Hillary, who has never been a liberal, will all of a sudden become one once she gets into office.
joshcryer
(62,534 posts)And not 2-3 years down the road in the event that a truly big campaign is formed and she runs.
The earlier, the better!
bvar22
(39,909 posts)Easy.
Just play the following video on an endless loop.
Who WAS that guy campaigning on Raising the CAP on FICA Deductions,
and what happened to him?
You will know them by their [font size=3]WORKS.[/font]
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Is that she's infinitely more popular today than she was in 2008. She's not nearly as vulnerable or wounded as the disliked, highly divisive senator that had high disapproval ratings and low likability ones.
People need to stop comparing Hillary from 2008 to Hillary in 2013 and beyond - they're two entirely different candidates because of how popular she is today compared to eight or so years ago.
I might not be entirely on board with the idea of her as president, and I'll probably end up voting for someone else in the primaries (tho, by the time my state votes in a few years, the race might be wrapped up), but I'm smart enough to realize that if she runs, she probably wins.
polichick
(37,626 posts)or another populist candidate drafted by the people. THAT would be a great election season to watch!
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Plus, I don't think Warren runs. For all the talk about her being a candidate, no one even knows if she wants to run. To beat Hillary, you're going to need a candidate who can not only galvanize the left - but also win over the middle of the party.
polichick
(37,626 posts)I would love to see a drafted candidate - it would be very exciting and an important step toward taking this country back from corporate control, the very thing a Clinton administration would continue.
If there is a populist candidate in the primary, liberal Dems should draft first-rate ad people to draw clear bold pictures about both kinds of candidates.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I'd wager most draft candidates fail because they're not sure they want to run. Wes Clark, Fred Thompson - they're two candidates who were 'drafted' into running and both failed badly. Why? For a host of reasons, of course, but also probably because their heart wasn't necessarily in running. If Warren is only 70% sure she wants to run, she's going to lose because you can't half-heart a presidential campaign.
Just look at Ted Kennedy in '80. He really didn't want to be president. But he felt it was his obligation...and ran...then lost badly.
polichick
(37,626 posts)inspired to make sure the 1% get every last penny of this country's wealth.
It would take a very generous public servant to want to run in this system.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)2. is personal.
It's been my experience in life that over time people become more of who they are, not less so. I suspect it is rare that they become anything like the polar opposite of how they started out.
And we all know here that Hillary started out as a conservative republican.
And what is a "mind conservative and a heart liberal" anyway? I don't trust her "conservative" mind.
Now it may be that time and experience have changed her "conservative" mind. I just need to see serious evidence of it.