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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Mutilated Economy-By PAUL KRUGMAN — we’ve done ourselves immense long-term damage…
The Mutilated Economy
By PAUL KRUGMAN
New York Times OpEd
November 8, 2013
Five years and eleven months have now passed since the U.S. economy entered recession. Officially, that recession ended in the middle of 2009, but nobody would argue that weve had anything like a full recovery. Official unemployment remains high, and it would be much higher if so many people hadnt dropped out of the labor force. Long-term unemployment the number of people who have been out of work for six months or more is four times what it was before the recession.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV
These dry numbers translate into millions of human tragedies homes lost, careers destroyed, young people who cant get their lives started. And many people have pleaded all along for policies that put job creation front and center. Their pleas have, however, been drowned out by the voices of conventional prudence. We cant spend more money on jobs, say these voices, because that would mean more debt. We cant even hire unemployed workers and put idle savings to work building roads, tunnels, schools. Never mind the short run, we have to think about the future!
The bitter irony, then, is that it turns out that by failing to address unemployment, we have, in fact, been sacrificing the future, too. What passes these days for sound policy is in fact a form of economic self-mutilation, which will cripple America for many years to come
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the evidence is overwhelming that by failing to respond effectively to mass unemployment by not even making unemployment a major policy priority weve done ourselves immense long-term damage
MORE:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/opinion/krugman-the-mutilated-economy.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&rref=opinion&adxnnlx=1383887959-9G6mPRoyOQYJOgXNkPJe+Q&
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/08/1254018/-Krugman-The-Mutilated-Economy
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)would happen now unfolding before his very eyes must be profoundly depressing to him. I feel very sorry for him because it could have been so very different, if only his advice had been taken and the country could have had another stimulus. We would be pulling out of recession now and doing so strongly. So many people are suffering because we didn't. It is unforgivable for the repukes to do this to this country...
harun
(11,348 posts)is more important than employing him.
riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)riverbendviewgal
(4,252 posts)See FATCA
bullwinkle428
(20,629 posts)Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
Myrina
(12,296 posts)Why doesn't anyone in the Admin listen to Mr. Krugman?
(sorta rhetorical question, sigh ...)
harun
(11,348 posts)They certainly know Krugman's policies would be better for the majority of American's. However, this aint a Democracy anymore. Appealing to the majority get's you nothing politically. Appealing to those who hold the big $$$ get's you elected, and keeps you there.
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
TheKentuckian
(25,026 posts)AnotherMcIntosh
(11,064 posts)madrchsod
(58,162 posts)Egalitarian Thug
(12,448 posts)right will be considered a greater qualification than being born into the parasite class?
AmBlue
(3,111 posts)Whose well-informed insights and pleas repeatedly fall on deaf-- and willfully negligent-- ears.
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)for warning of what would happen to Troy...people who can see the future and warn others aren't loved for it...
AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)BREAK UP THE FUCKING BANKS.
dotymed
(5,610 posts)madrchsod
(58,162 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)"America will probably spend decades paying for the mistaken priorities of the past few years."
Oh, and I just got put firmly into my place by a 10%er whom I contacted about making a private purchase. Funny thing is, her pricing makes clear her target market is the incredibly shrinking upper middle class. Remember them?
MissMillie
(38,556 posts)The fact is that all the spending we are not doing now (on infrastructure) will cost more later on. And as baby-boomers age, there will be fewer tax-payers to foot the more expensive costs.
Hestia
(3,818 posts)The 1% see the handwriting on the wall and know we are discontented with the entire process out here. As we all well know, there are paid shills pumping up whatever the talking point of the day is on both sides. They read and see.
Let just say, by design, they know damn well that they are stretching out any type of real recovery, because when we (there's that royal we again) really start winning - and we have to, to much is being said and done on the internet tubes not to be marginally unaware - we do not get future funding for the messes that will have to be cleaned up. There's no there there. Which also means that it is just that much longer for them to scream and shout and pout and stamp feet that what we are doing isn't working, so give the reigns back to "them." Loverly...
Look at the 1980s - we're still putting out that fire as we speak. We were on a way to some semblance of a Recovery with Clinton and we had to live through the Dark Ages of Modern Politics just to hammer home and we do need to stand together and say No when we need to, Yes, when we should. Me included.
Now all that's gone and future funding too. Looks like we're gonna need you whiz kids to step it up and find this decade's new necessary/need/want, so y'all can make billions of dollars and fund true Social Justice projects and pay taxes without having to be asked, like what Dr. Bronner's CEO is doing. The future is your hands, run with it
JEFF9K
(1,935 posts)Demeter
(85,373 posts)'cause there aren't any sitting on the shelf in inventory.
JEFF9K
(1,935 posts)enlightenment
(8,830 posts)Hestia
(3,818 posts)CTyankee
(63,912 posts)JEFF9K
(1,935 posts)" ... I suppose I could have stayed in that life, which would have been really comfortable. But its not the real world of economic policy, which is full of people who arent smart, dont know what theyre talking about, and/or are anything but honest. And someone has to take that real world on. ..."
Powerful stuff from Krug. It sums things up so well, and is worth saving.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)Too depressing.
FogerRox
(13,211 posts)madrchsod
(58,162 posts)it`s going to get really interesting in this country.
DonCoquixote
(13,616 posts)the peoplescreaming "austerity" on the GOP side really DO NOT GIVE A FUCK about the debt. They loved it when W. was in, and they willlove it if a GOP wins in 2016. They do not care about the fact austerity has brought Europe from being the next great superpower to a default province of Merkel's Germany.
Only the Blue Dogs democrats are stupid enough to believe there is anythig to this austerity crap. They cannot believe that the GOP would LOVE an America that is in debt to China forever!
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)dougolat
(716 posts)Hestia
(3,818 posts)dougolat
(716 posts)... rendering it even less effective than it would have been, and providing Fox with another "talking point" lie to shout thru their bullhorn.
LuvNewcastle
(16,845 posts)for too long. All they want to do is cut taxes for the wealthy in the hope that the wealthy will, in turn, start up more businesses and hire people. Well they aren't doing that. They're sitting on the money or putting it in the stock market.
I don't think that the skyrocketing gains in the stock market have been good for average Americans. Why would the wealthy invest in business start-ups and expansion when they can make more trading stocks? Maybe things would get better if the stock market started to lose value. I'm not talking about a crash; I mean a gradually declining market or a market that's sort of stagnant.
I'm not an economist, but I do know that the economy cannot get better until people have jobs and money to spend. People won't have jobs until the people with the money invest it in the growth of businesses. Right now the stock market is where the money is, not in concrete business investments. The stock market must be over-valued because real business growth hasn't been happening much, so the inflated prices in the market must come down to more realistic levels. Is there any way to make the market less attractive to investment without destroying the capabilities of those businesses to grow and hire more people?
chervilant
(8,267 posts)I suggest you watch The Wall Street Code. The uber wealthy grow their obscene wealth via complex algorithms and OTC Derivatives. In 2009, the OTC Derivatives market was valued at $272 trillion, more than four times the combined GDP of every nation on the planet. How obscene AND absurd!
LuvNewcastle
(16,845 posts)When they passed the Dodd/Frank bill, I knew then that they weren't going to get serious about changing Wall Street's dangerous practices. I wanted to see them outlaw derivatives trading, or at least put so many regulations on it that it's not worth doing anymore.
They're still basically doing what they were before, and I fear we're going to have the same old problem all over again. We're always the ones left holding the bag and paying for the recklessness of the 1%. Unfortunately, the public wasn't outraged enough after the first disaster, and so radical changes weren't deemed necessary. Things are going to be very different when it happens again. People have a much better grasp now of the excesses of the predator class, and the nest time the market crashes it's going to get dangerous for those at the top.
chervilant
(8,267 posts)your consideration. We hear -- repeatedly, and condescendingly -- that the "average person" cannot understand the complex algorithms that drive the HFT that now comprises 70+% of all trading (as if that stat alone doesn't make your blood run cold). We may not have Haim Bodek's massive intellect, but we're NOT stupid. That's one misstep that the uber wealthy will come to regret -- thinking us stupid.
LuvNewcastle
(16,845 posts)What those people are doing is like playing catch with nuclear bombs. And we're supposed to be the dumb people. At least we can see that capitalism is doomed because it eventually causes us to feed on ourselves. All I can think about right now is how historians will tell the story of our self-inflicted demise. I hope people in the future learn something from this, because we don't seem to be able to learn from history, unfortunately.
dougolat
(716 posts)jmowreader
(50,557 posts)Title VII supposedly regulated the derivatives business, but in reality it did no such thing.
First, it keeps calling derivatives swaps. All swaps are derivatives but not all derivatives are swaps. (Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swap_(finance)) You could, theoretically, trade derivatives for twenty years and never sell a swap - commodities traders do this. It would be very rare to do so, because swaps are good for hedging risk, but you could.
But most importantly, it didn't stop people from selling hazardous derivatives. It is completely legal to create a derivative based on bets against mortgages you don't own (the instrument is a "synthetic collateralized debt obligation" and sell it to people. I have read the prospectus for the synthetic CDO the Goldman Sachs scandal revolved around. I really wish Congress would have called me to testify, because my opening statement would have been something like this:
"Distinguished members of the panel, our friends at Goldman, Sachs explained very clearly in this prospectus (holding aloft the document) that what happened to make all these losses happen, was supposed to. The term 'synthetic exposure to the mortgage market' is used repeatedly in this thing. Synthetic exposure means someone bought a huge pile of securities called a naked credit default swap and used them as the underlying securities in this other bond called a synthetic collateralized debt obligation, or CDO. A credit default swap, or CDS, is kind of an insurance policy taken out on a loan, in this case a mortgage. If the homeowner for some reason can't or won't pay back his loan, the CDS will cover his loss. There are a couple of differences between a bona fide insurance policy and a CDS, namely that the person selling a CDS doesn't need to have the money to pay you back on hand - that person will generally buy another security to hedge the CDS - and the person buying it doesn't need to own the mortgage it's written against. If he doesn't own the mortgage that's when the CDS is considered naked. If he does own the underlying mortgage the CDS is called "covered," but that's not what we're dealing with in this hearing. We good so far?
"At this point we have a basic understanding of what we're dealing with: Goldman Sachs bought insurance policies against the default of mortgages it didn't own and had no intention of buying, and compiled them into a bond called a synthetic CDO. It then sold shares of it to investors, thus entering into what's called a 'counterparty arrangement" with them. The way this counterparty arrangement works is very simple: if the people way down on this derivative's food chain make their payments and pay off their mortgages the investors make money and Goldman loses, and if the borrowers default on them then Goldman wins.
"If any member of this panel, if any member of the visitor's gallery, any viewer on C-SPAN, or any of the other witnesses to this hearing believe that Goldman, Sachs, one of the oldest and most profitable firms in the financial world, would enter into a transaction of any kind with the intent of losing money, they need to quit smoking that shit.
"Thus ends my opening statement. I will now entertain questions."
Seriously, though, a derivatives regulation that would have solved anything would have banned all derivatives whose underlying assets are other derivatives (these are called CDOs and collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs) and any naked derivative. We don't allow people to sell houses with known holes in the roof without disclosing their presence, but we allow derivatives dealers to sell the equivalent of houses that are burning to the ground right now without disclosing the presence of the fire. This needs to change.
LuvNewcastle
(16,845 posts)So much of what the government does these days (if they do anything at all) is theater. They have to make it look like the people we elect are the ones making the decisions.
jmowreader
(50,557 posts)It was beta than nuthin but there are very good reasons a simple "restore the Chinese walls between banking, investments and insurance; establish a national usury rate of 20 percent and a national default rate of 22; fix the derivatives business; and require prison for gross financial crimes" bill would never pass: the banks paid huge money for the laws we have now.
Hestia
(3,818 posts)them to beat this quarter's projection. How long will they really last? For as long as it takes for the Patent to dry? Then they will just be a blurb on the inside page of the Business Section.
jmowreader
(50,557 posts)History teaches us that the greatest period of job creation happened right after World War II. If low taxes caused jobs to be created the postwar period should have caused the greatest period of contraction in history and it didn't.
I've used this metaphor before: you want your kid to get straight As and you want to use money to do it. Would it work better to tell her on the first day of school, "the first straight A report card you bring home this year gets you $20, the second $30, the third $50 and the fourth $100" or to tell her "here's $200, bring home straight As but it's okay if you don't"? Prereagan tax policy was the first example applied to job growth; postreagan policy is the second.
pampango
(24,692 posts)This never made sense even in its own terms. As some of us have tried to explain, debt, while it can pose problems, doesnt make the nation poorer, because its money we owe to ourselves. Anyone who talks about how were borrowing from our children just hasnt done the math.
True, debt can indirectly make us poorer if deficits drive up interest rates and thereby discourage productive investment. But that hasnt been happening. Instead, investment is low because of the economys weakness. And one of the main things keeping the economy weak is the depressing effect of cutbacks in public spending especially, by the way, cuts in public investment all justified in the name of protecting the future from the wildly exaggerated threat of excessive debt.
Its really a terrible story: a tale of self-inflicted harm, made all the worse because it was done in the name of responsibility. And the damage continues as we speak.
valerief
(53,235 posts)rich.