Something I've never understood about statewide elections

[PlanetaryOrbit]

How does a Republican get elected as senator in a blue state like Massachusetts, or a Democrat get elected in a red state like Alaska?


Or a Republican get elected governor of New Jersey (by a wide margin, I might add?)


Massachusetts and Alaska are reliably blue and red states, respectively, in presidential elections, so did they suddenly just disregard party affiliation during those senator elections?


Shouldn't solidly red states consistently elect conservative governors and senators almost every time, and shouldn't solidly blue states consistently elect liberal governors and senators almost every time? It's not like House of Representative elections, where there could be a very liberal district in a very red state and a very conservative district in a very blue state.

[tblue37]

1. Sometimes it is just a matter of SHOWING UP.

Have you ever heard the saying, "99% of success is just showing up"?

Howard Dean's 50-state strategy was based on the idea that Dems should stop ceding whole states to Repubs, but should instead spend money and energy winning over voters. Many Repubs in red states don't even get a Dem challenger. I bet there are a lot of blue voters in red states who don't bother to even go to the polls because key races offer only one (R) choice, so they end up not voting in other races either.

[davidn3600]

2. Independents and swing voters

It also depends on other factors such as turnout and the issues at that time. What's going on at the federal level is not always the same at the state/local level.

A lot of voters don't vote a straight party ticket. Some states also (like Florida) are classic purple states.

[hfojvt]

3. thank goodness things are NOT that predictable

Parties still need to field candidates and run campaigns.

How did Kansas end up with Kathleen Sebelius for two terms?

I am still not sure.

Seems to me a couple things happened though.

1. she started raising a lot of money
2. the media predicted that she would win, and sorta promoted her.
3. because of the first two, the Republican Party did not bother to find a strong candidate to run against her.
4. I also think, as a woman running against men, she picked up a slice of Republican/conservative women voters.

Another thing is - this whole red/blue thing is a recent invention of pundits, dating from about the 2000 election. It has never been written in stone. A presidential candidate from the south COULD still win some of those southern "red" states, just like Carter and Clinton did.

South Dakota, my home state, has pretty much never voted for a Democrat for President (might be two exceptions - 1964 and 1936 (maybe)). Yet we have a number of Democrats elected to statewide office - McGovern (for 3 terms), Daschle (for 3 terms), Johnson (two terms), Herseth (Congress for 3? terms).

Several things help to make that happen.

First, off year elections. McGovern first got elected in 1962 (between the Presidential elections of 1960 and 1964). Daschle first got elected in 1986 (between Presidential elections of 1984 and 1988). In off year elections, turnout is lower, so if you can get YOUR side to the polls you can win even though your side is a minority of all voters, they become a majority of the voters who show up.

Second, they probably did not campaign as liberals, even if that is how they later voted. McGovern was a war hero, a pilot from WWII.

Third, for Daschle at least, he was probably helped by the primary election between Janklow and Abdnor (although I thought he could be Abdnor anyway, but didn't think he could beat Janklow (and then Abdnor beat Janklow) (so what did I know - but Daschle beat Abdnor just like I thought.) Primaries always create opportunities for the other party, because the candidates spend money running against somebody in their own party, and attacks can get personal. The winning candidate needs to woo those who supported his/her primary opponent, and sometimes simply cannot do it. Note, for two recent examples, how well Gore did in Arizona in 2000 (after Bush beat McCain in the primary) and how poorly Obama did in Arkansas (compared to Kerry) in 2008 (after he beat Hillary in the primary).

[surrealAmerican]

4. A few reasons:

1. People don't vote for a party for governor, they vote for a person. The actual candidate matters.
2. "Solidly" red states or "solidly" blue states are not 90% republican or democratic, they're more like 55%. A good candidate can attract more voters, a bad one can cause people to vote against their party's candidate.

[Nye Bevan]

5. I don't think anywhere is ever as "solidly red" or "solidly blue" as people think.

Look at NYC. The Democrat just won the mayor's race with 75% of the vote. Pretty solidly blue, right? But then how did Mike Bloomberg win 3 terms in a row prior to this?

[former9thward]

6. With money.

He had been a life long Democrat, switched to Rep because it would be easier to get on the ballot via the Rep primary. Once there he used his money to buy endorsements, field workers and the election. Then he switched to Indie because that was convenient but still collected votes on the Republican ballot line. When you have a sea of money it is easy to overwhelm people no matter what you call your self

[Jamaal510]

7. That's what drove me crazy

about how close the 2010 CA gubernatorial election was. They claim that CA is so deep blue, yet we almost ended up with Meg Whitman as governor.
It seems to be more of a matter of an abundance of Indys and swing voters in many states, who for whatever reason have conflicting views regarding which parties should be in control in State and National legislatures. With everything so polarized between the 2 parties today, I myself have a difficult time figuring out how somebody could vote for both Dems and Repubs.

[dsc]

8. a few things

One, governors are often elected on the basis of their individual qualities as much as party and often run campaigns tailored to their states. Christie probably couldn't win in Texas with his views nor could Kentucky's Democratic governor win a primary in say Maine. As to Senate races it often takes extraordinary circumstances. Stevens in Alaska literally got convicted on the eve of the election and we still barely won that race in the best Democratic year in memory. Brown was a great campaigner running against a dreadful one in an off, off year election in the best GOP year in memory and he won a fairly anemic victory. He went on to lose to a political neophyte by close to double digits.