If this really comes to pass, it will be a major defeat for the Republicans in the short-term.

[kpete]

* HARRY REID SET TO GO NUCLEAR THIS WEEK: I reported yesterday that the Senate Majority Leader was set to change the Senate rules by simple majority this week

“If the votes are there, we will probably do it this week,” the aide said, speaking anonymously to divulge internal plans. A second Democratic aide said Mr. Reid would go ahead once the Senate had wrapped up debate on a contentious proposal to combat sexual assault in the military.

I suppose it is possible that Greg Sargent is being used as a conduit to issue a credible threat, but the threat (and the reasoning behind the threat) seems credible to me. Harry Reid intends to "go nuclear" before Thanksgiving. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/11/19/harry-reid-is-set-to-go-nuclear/ According to Sargent's reporting, Reid will change the rules of the Senate in such a way that the filibuster will be unavailable to the Republicans for all but Supreme Court nominations.

If this really comes to pass, it will be a major defeat for the Republicans in the short-term. To see why, look at how many vacancies there on the federal courts of appeal (the numbers on senior judges is a best-estimate).

1st Circuit: Active judges: 3 DEM, 2 GOP. Senior Judges: 1 DEM, 5 GOP. One vacancy, David Jeremiah Barron nominated on September 24, 2013.
2nd Circuit: Active judges: 8 DEM, 5 GOP. Senior Judges: 6 DEM, 3 GOP. No vacancies.
3rd Circuit: Active judges: 7 DEM, 5 GOP. Senior Judges: 3 DEM, 9 GOP. Two vacancies.
4th Circuit: Active judges: 9.5 DEM, 5.5* GOP. Senior Judges: 0 DEM, 1 GOP. No vacancies.
5th Circuit: Active judges: 5 DEM, 10 GOP. Senior Judges: 2 DEM, 6 GOP. Three vacancies.
6th Circuit: Active judges: 5 DEM, 10 GOP. Senior Judges: 5 DEM, 8 GOP. One vacancy.
7th Circuit: Active judges: 3 DEM, 7 GOP. Senior Judges: 1 DEM, 3 GOP. One vacancy.
8th Circuit: Active judges: 3 DEM, 7 GOP. Senior Judges: 1 DEM, 8 GOP. No vacancies.
9th Circuit: Active judges: 18 DEM, 9 GOP. Senior Judges: 9 DEM, 7 GOP. Two vacancies, John B. Owens and Michelle T. Friedland nominated on August 1st, 2013.
10th Circuit: Active judges: 5 DEM, 5 GOP. Senior Judges: 4 DEM, 6 GOP. Two vacancies, Carolyn B. McHugh nominated on May 16th, 2013 and Nancy Moritz nominated on August 1st, 2013
11th Circuit: Active judges: 5 DEM, 3 GOP. Senior Judges: 2 DEM, 6 GOP. Four vacancies. Jill A. Pryor nominated on February 16, 2012 and Robin S. Rosenbaum nominated on November 7, 2013.
DC Circuit: Active judges: 4 DEM, 4 GOP. Senior Judges: 1 DEM, 5 GOP. Three vacancies: Patricia Millett, Nina Pillard, and Robert L. Wilkins nominated on June 4th, 2013.
Federal Circuit: Active judges: 7 DEM, 5 GOP. Senior Judges: 2 DEM, 4 GOP. No vacancies.
*judge was nominated by Clinton and renominated by Bush.

There are 19 total vacancies, all of which would be filled within a year. You can figure which courts would be the most important on your own. Just keep in mind that Senior Judges do hear cases. Their presence on the court helps determine the ideological makeup of the court. That's one reason why the Republicans have fought so hard against the three DC Circuit judges.

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2013/11/19/201856/14

[winter is coming]

1. Thanksgiving of which year?

I'll be as pleased as the rest of DU if this actually happens, but we've heard this so many times before.

[JimboBillyBubbaBob]

2. You make a good point

I can think of no other issue that needs such immediate attention that will result in such long term outcomes. Yet, I will believe it when I see it.

[B Calm]

3. I'll believe it after it happens!

[randome]

4. It's been a bargaining chip in the past. But this time Republicans didn't get the hint.

They filibustered anyways. So this time I think Reid pulls the trigger.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post..[/center][/font][hr]

[Laelth]

5. IF it happens, it will be a major victory for the American people.

The Senate (by its very nature) has been a thorn in the side of progress in this nation for as long as we have had our current government (since 1787). Weakening the capacity for small-population states to obstruct progress in the Senate will be a major benefit to us all.

-Laelth

[kestrel91316]

6. I'm not holding my breath. Harry has disappointed so many

times I've lost track.