My theory on why unemployment is dropping.

[RandySF]

Because those who are working are about to drop dead. People are dropping like flies where I work due to health reasons or are leaving to other organizations because of an enormous work load. Management is just now beginning to understand and are grudgingly beginning to hire more people.

[el_bryanto]

1. Literally worked to death?

There should be statistics available on that.

Bryant

[RandySF]

2. Figuratively

But literally worked to exhaustion.

[kelliekat44]

3. Uhmmm....people have been dying for a long time now. nt

[BlueStreak]

5. Deplorable. I'm never going to do that.

[spanone]

4. my theory: more people are getting jobs.

in spite of the republicans doing nothing

[tridim]

9. Yep. Occam is LHAO at this thread.

I know for a fact that IT hiring is way up.

[sendero]

6. I think the Fed REALLY.

... wants/needs to begin the taper and they cannot do it until the employment numbers look better. So they look better!

Not seriously.

In any event, it is well known that most of these jobs are McJobs. So the "recovery" crowd can please sit on it.

[RKP5637]

8. Exactly! I find it disgusting when politicans point to the jobs they are

creating, because most are crap jobs. Well said, ...

the "recovery" crowd can please sit on it.

[Yo_Mama]

22. There is genuine, if slow, improvement.

Full-time jobs (above graph) are rising while part-time jobs are holding steady:


And the numbers of those who can only find part-time work are dropping slowly:

[sendero]

26. "Recovery"..

... means "returning to where you were". It does not mean a slow "improvement".

We are not in an economic recovery like any recovery in the past ever.

[Yo_Mama]

30. No, we aren't. It is like the GD in many respects

For the individual American, living standards are going down inexorably, and the theory that the central bank can boost inflation is flawed because we don't have the money.

However the economy is improving. It is still terribly damaged.

[sendero]

40. The central bank..

... can absolutely increase inflation IF they put money into the actual economy. The are not doing that, they are giving it all to banksters, so inflation has not been the result as yet.

As for a "recovery", here is a graph that everyone that thinks there is one should consider carefully.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

[karynnj]

36. Looking at the first graph shows why it is true there has been slow, but steady, growth AND there

are not enough jobs. Notice that we still have not reached the number of jobs there were in 2008 when the economy fell apart. Further MENTALLY see where the graph should be had the growth rate of the entire earlier period continued. The gap between where that would put you and where we are is pretty big. This is why we should still be using something to stimulate the economy - rather than the forced austerity that sequester and Republican budgets want.

[Yo_Mama]

39. This is why I prefer to use the graphs in these contexts

It's true to say that things are improving, but only looking at the whole picture places that truthful statement in context. Without that context, it's a technically truthful statement which is fundamentally misleading.

Those commenters on DU who insist on the pessimistic view may be technically incorrect, but they are insisting on that view because they sense the underlying truth, which is that this economy is FUBAR compared to all post WWII history:


I like this guy's graphs
http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2013/04/409-million-missing-jobs-musical-tribute.html

- here's the one he updates on the jobs trend:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-atZDigQlHpo/UV-7xpplx8I/AAAAAAAALgY/YF4VuefPvH8/s320/Jobs+-+Long-Term.jpg
This is reality, and man does it suck.

[RKP5637]

7. That, and also people off unemployment, those that just quit looking, and those

older that want work but can't find it are not counted, so, it looks like jobs are picking up, also, so many of the jobs today are crap jobs.

In essence, the entire inane carrot and stick mentality of disaster capitalism will eventually cave in, as many start to not give a fuck.

This country is so woefully unprepared for the 21st century. Just like our crumbling infrastructure, we also have a crumbling financial infrastructure for most Americans.

Those not tuned to the propaganda see it, others, get deluded by the propaganda. And, those holding the purse strings are not going to fix it ... one has to be pretty lame not to get that. And all politicians are going to preach how well things are getting, none have the guts to stand up and say we are fucked on this current path, and most have their hands out for corporate money. This, is USA, Inc., and citizens, most, are just disgruntled employees.

[denverbill]

10. Did you read a few weeks ago about Walmart hiring more full-time employees?

To me, that was a trigger, because Wally-world HATES full-time employees, but they couldn't keep their shelves filled because they couldn't keep staff.

If a labor shortage is causing Walmart to hire full-time staff, that's the biggest private employer in the US going on a major hiring spree. I think we are seeing ripple effects from that.

[Demo_Chris]

16. How lomg will these people remain full time? nt

[DireStrike]

35. Until either the economy picks up or WM employees knock off this crazy union protest thing.

*though to be honest the WM protests are far too small to accomplish anything.

[Demo_Chris]

37. I would suggest they will stay full time until...

One week before they become eligible for mandatory full time benefits -- in other words, through the holiday season then back to part time or lay-off in the spring.

[mother earth]

11. Yeah, there's a real run on min. wage jobs, a hiring frenzy...the new normal, time to celebrate.

BS is BS, confidence is a real game.

[leftyladyfrommo]

13. I'm afraid that's the new normal.

Sad to say.

Don't bother with higher ed. Just be sure you have a really good grasp of computer technology.

Then you too can sit at a computer all day and type stuff in.

[RKP5637]

18. In a truly mechanized world, even that is not needed. Few are publicly stating

where we are headed with this obsolete notion of jobs for everyone in the traditional sense, the topology is rapidly changing, politicians are fearful to voice their opinions, corporatism has a strangle hold on what has become a fascist country and the financial infrastructure will be failing for most.

As a technologist, I can easily say people and jobs of a traditional sense will become completely obsolete in the 21st century. Some know this is happening, but TPTB remain silent, and they need to appease the masses with the traditional obsolete and outmoded rhetoric.

[mother earth]

20. Frankly, higher ed should be tackled like health care, available to ALL...when are we going to wake

up & realize an educated populace doesn't screw each other over, they become sustainable and cooperative, suddenly engaged in life & realizing there's far more than struggling to survive, it truly makes the world a better place. Isn't that what we strive for, or should strive for?

The past is dead, we need to awaken and engage in a brighter future for all our sakes.

Ignorance only breeds more poverty and crime.

[socialist_n_TN]

24. Capitalism doesn't WANT sustainable and cooperative.....

and they ESPECIALLY don't want workers who are "...engaged in life and realizing there's far more than struggling to survive...". They WANT workers who are struggling to survive because those are the workers who aren't concentrating on anything, but keeping their lousy jobs.

If you want sustainable and cooperative, get rid of capitalism.

[Capt. Obvious]

12. You should start a small business

picking up the bodies.

You can make extra caching by rifling their pockets.

[duffyduff]

14. I don't believe it is. The government is lying about it.

The job market is BRUTAL out here.

[RKP5637]

19. Basically, SOS, R=D=I, all in positions of power, generally, stretch the truth. Government

metrics for measurement have been skewed forever to present what wants to be presented.

The world is changing, and woefully the US remains stuck in prior centuries doing old dog tricks.

And sadly, many citizens are information limited, so they fall prey to all of the rhetoric, and if some suggest a new idea, an innovative way to handle the economy, they are shot down by the Captains of Industry that hold the stranglehold on what has sadly become a fascist country.

[Schema Thing]

15. Well, that IS part of it. It's the normal cycle of business "recovery".

[leftyladyfrommo]

21. I don't know anyone this "recovery" has touched yet.

My older friends still can't even get an interview for a job. Same ole, same ole.

The young people I know can't find anything, either.

Did someone start the revolution without us?

[socialist_n_TN]

23. The system has restored some profitibility.......

in the RATE of profit, so there are some jobs being created for that reason. But as others have said, the jobs that ARE being created are NOT really very good jobs. Good jobs would screw up that rate of profit because labor costs are the main impediment to profits.

Also there's a question about how long those jobs will last. Another bubble in real estate popping and we've got another recession and *poof* the jobs are gone again. And one final point, we're all cheering and looking with relief at an OFFICIAL unemployment dropping to 7%. SEVEN FUCKING PERCENT! "Full" employment is 5% or so. We might never get back to that figure again and it'll probably take another decade to even get close.

[PassingFair]

25. My theory: Holiday hiring.

EVERY administration bluffs with these numbers every year.

[cherokeeprogressive]

31. Yep.

Sometimes things are really that simple.

[mstinamotorcity2]

27. Its no coinkydink

that right to work is on the move state by state and shifts have gotten longer with no increase in pay.

[Zo Zig]

28. Theory?

The young don't have the skills and the older workers are too skilled.
Companies are offering the employed some small increase to switch jobs. Hey management has to get their bonus, that's all that matters.
Lay off the folks at top of the salary range, hire someone with less experience.
I have worked for five different firms in the last 25 years, only one is still in business under the original name. It is the firm that buys and sells the others. The others were sold, and the staff was laid off, or went public and the staff was laid off...

So, you want fries with that?

[penultimate]

33. My theory is that people with jobs are being abducted...

[img][/img]

[phylny]

34. Two of our three daughters (the youngest is still in college) got jobs in their fields this year.

Our eldest left a low-level management job at CVS to work for a construction company as an environmental engineer, and our middle daughter left a minimum-wage job at a local marina to be an athletic trainer. My best friend just got a job after being on unemployment for a year, although she is being worked to death, truth to tell.

[Autumn]

38. Unemployment numbers seems to go down every year at this time.

My neighbors Daughter just got a job at a department store, for the holidays only.

[a kennedy]

41. My own reality on the economy was shown today at our Kohl's store.....

at 2:00 in the afternoon, there was a line to check out. Four cash registers were humming, two stations weren't open, but there were a lot of people in line to check out. It was Monday......I kinda laughed and talked to the woman behind me, "I thought it would be a breeze to shop today, guess I was wrong." We both laughed, but I felt pretty good people were out shopping. I know buying stuff.....but buying stuff keeps others employed and others getting jobs, temporary as the jobs probably are, I still think it helps the economy for some people. Better then no one buying nothing. Does this make sense?? Hope so.