Political Science professor: 1% chance of Democrats to gain House majority in 2014

[Penicilino]

This should serve as motivation for us to GOTV and lead the Democratic Party to a victory. Much work has to be done.

In the first post on our House forecasting model for the 2014 election, we estimated that, as of this moment, Republicans are likely to gain five seats in the House of Representatives. That estimate is in line with some others, such as this recent analysis from David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, who projects that right now the Republicans are likely to gain between zero and 10 seats.[//blockquote]

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/12/20/democrats-currently-have-a-1-percent-chance-of-retaking-the-house/

[Enrique]

1. ah, that time-tested motivational technique

post an article claiming the Democrats have no chance, to inspire us to GOTV.

[global1]

2. Reminds Me Of This Funny, Funny Scene In 'Dumb & Dumber'......

"So you're telling me there's a chance - yeah!!!!!"

[JaneyVee]

3. With all the GOP gerrymandering and BS voter ID laws it is looking harder.

But I agree, GOTV!

[Coyotl]

5. Let the Republicans think this is true for as long as possible before we

kick their asses into minority world

[LisaLynne]

6. +1

[madville]

7. I don't understand

I was told hundreds of times in 2008/2009 the Republicans were done forever.

Seriously though, the ACA has given them new life in recent years and they'll ride that wave at least a couple of more election cycles.

[catbyte]

8. I respectfully disagree. The ACA will bite Republicans in the ass next year. Don't

believe all that negative crap you hear in the media. A bagger neighbor of mine actually apologized to me last week after discovering that his family will be saving over $500/month for a much better plan. He said he regretted voting for Romney & will not vote for our so-called "rep", Justin Amash. He can't be the only one to see the light. I could tell it pained him to say what he was saying, lol.

[JoePhilly]

9. That's happening all over the place ... Democrats are helping their GOP relatives

get insurance, and over and over, they are SHOCKED that the ACA doesn't actually force you into a FEMA camp to await your turn at the Death Panel.

And because the ACA will save them MONEY, they'll accept it quickly.

[catbyte]

10. That guy and I have gotten into some pretty heated debates since 2011, and

I think I'm wearing him down. It's taken quite a while, but he always discovers what I tell him is the truth & what he hears from Fox-PAC, The Big Bag of Goo, aka Rush, are lies. It pisses him off, but he's grudgingly accepting reality. Especially when it saves him $500 a month.

[madville]

11. We'll certainly find out come November

I'm curious about how the employer mandate will play out. Right now the stage is set for stories about employers dropping employee health plans right before the mid-terms. They could delay it again but if not it will certainly be a huge story.

Whether the Republicans hold their numbers/gain seats or we take the House majority back, the ACA will certainly have played a role. Will it be a positive or negative role? Both is the simple answer, it could be 60/40 view the ACA as negative or vice versa.

The employer mandate will be the big story leading into the election, we know the media will hype the negative stories when some large companies drop their plans and their employees can't keep their current coverage. That's mainly why I lean towards it having a negative impact on 2014, because it will be presented as such to the masses.

[catbyte]

12. I'm betting the other way, because cold hard cash in the pocket beats a negative

story. I'm not taking any chances, though, and will work very hard to unseat the baggers who have turned my once-wonderful state into Mississigan.