Whoever runs as the D nominee in 2016 is going to run away from Obama

[Recursion]

It's how this works. You'll see endless questions and answers about how this won't be Obama's third term. You'll see repudiations everywhere. Even Poppy did it in 1988 (the GOP's beatification of Reagan only started during Poppy's term). You saw it with Gore. You saw it with McCain. It's just how this works.

She or he will run away on different issues to the right or left, depending, but you're going to see a politician who wants to stake herself or himself out as someone new, who won't be mired down in the endless tit-for-tat partisanship of recent years. Yes, it's all उपले (a Hindi word referring to what cows leave behind them), but there are several factors that all push towards this

1. A press corps (and, less so, a public) with the attention span of hummingbirds on cocaine
2. The sort of personality that leads people to put up with the उपले of running for President in the first place
3. A public generally disaffected with politics (always true, for once actually more true now than usual -- last I checked Congress has lower favorables than smallpox)
4. An open field (Biden's noise so far has been on the not-running side of things) that leads to candidates needing to stake themselves out as "that guy" or "that gal"

I'm an Obama fan. I think overall he's done a pretty good job. But I also think the last thing someone starting a candidacy for three years from now should be doing is associating herself or himself with his policies, administration, or anything else. System dynamics 101: the fact that this leads to worse outcomes doesn't keep it from happening.

It's उपले specifically because there's very, very little room in the actual governable range of US politics. We have a corporately-managed economy (that was the price of the New Deal) and will for several decades more, if not longer. It's a question of where someone can nudge that. (In that sense, the Naderites and Paulites have a point: there's very little difference in a global scale on what a given Democratic or Republican candidate can actually make happen, but the little nudges they can make, make a huge difference to millions of people, as small as they seem.)

So, you're going to get someone breaking somewhat right or left (hopefully mostly left) of Obama's positions on... well... just about everything, and (God willing) he or she will win, and face the exact same political and bureaucratic realities, and make his or her nudges as best as he or she can, and face the excoriation of activists from every direction, because that's just how this works.

[Lint Head]

1. I think more left and populist would win hands down. It depends on who the money powerful

support. Even greedy corporations will take note. The overwhelming success and money as the result of pot legalization is just the tip of the iceberg.

[Recursion]

2. Populism is a two-edged sword

It pushes parties to the left on economics and to the right culturally. Be careful what you wish for.

[msongs]

3. the flip flop of what we have now. though populists can be just fine "culturally" as well nt

[joshcryer]

11. How does populism push to the right culturally?

Genuine question though I do recognize it in a few scenarios I'm critical of.

[VanillaRhapsody]

4. Of course that didn't work so well for Al Gore did it?

[El_Johns]

5. Did Gore run on "the left"? I guess I missed it.

[Cha]

6. She's saying Gore ran from Clinton and it didn't work out so well.

[El_Johns]

9. Ah.

[brush]

29. Exactly!

This president has done way more good than bad. The ACA, his signature issue is a reality now and proving to be more and more popular despite repug obstructionism.

I'd be leery of running away from something that helps so many people.

[Blue_Tires]

32. +1

It's like no one learned (or remembers) the lessons from that disaster...

[Cha]

7. I predict the Dem candidate will not run from Pres Obama and

Last edited Thu Jan 16, 2014, 08:25 AM - Edit history (1)

he will be featured at Convention.

[Bluenorthwest]

27. Our next convention will nominate the candidate for 2016

Here is what the guy you despise said at the last one, where he was featured:

"When President Obama took office, the economy was in free fall, losing more than 800,000 jobs a month. Since then, he's helped create 4.5 million private sector jobs, 29 straight months of job growth.

Stock market has doubled. Energy production is up. Imports from foreign countries are down. The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States has more than quadrupled. Manufacturing jobs are coming back, not just because we're producing a record amount of natural gas that's lowering electricity prices, but because we have the best-trained, hardest-working labor force in the history of the world.


Governor Romney said that finding Osama bin Laden was "not worth moving heaven and earth." Tonight, bin Laden isn't on earth, and he sure isn't in heaven. Thanks to the courage of American Special Forces and the bold leadership of our president, Osama bin Laden is at the bottom of the ocean.

All four of my grandparents were immigrants. They homesteaded the Montana prairie with nothing but the clothes on their backs, faith in God, and hope in their hearts that their kids and grandkids would have a better future. They delivered on that hope. And so has President Obama."

Now Cha, during the run up to 08, Obama was saying 'one man, one woman, Sanctity!!!!!' and holding events with ex gay hate preachers. Some of us understand that politics is politics, and gave him the benefit of the doubt in spite of the surrogate who had declared that gay people kill children. If we'd behaved as some here are behaving toward the potential candidates, we'd have destroyed him with our very adept public relations abilities. We'd have given you President Hillary Clinton. But we are smarter than that. Are you?

[Warren DeMontague]

8. I don't buy that.

I think a lot depends on what exactly the political landscape looks like come mid-late 2015.

[hfojvt]

17. I think that is exactly right

For one thing, I don't remember Bush Sr. running away from Reagan, although I, at least, thought he WAS more moderate than Reagan.

Gore ran away from Clinton, because he had to. The press was still making Clinton toxic because of the whole Monica thing.

McCain ran away from W because in 2008, W was about as popular as smallpox. That's why the Democratic Convention tried to hang him around McCain's neck. It was change vs. 'more of the same'. And very few were in favor of "the same".

Where people run will depend on the perceived popularity of Obama and the ACA.

[Warren DeMontague]

18. I would disagree with part of that, though. For one, I don't remember Gore running from Clinton...

nearly as much as some suggest.

He picked Lieberman- a bad call, by any yardstick- ostensibly to inoculate himself on the whole "immorality of the blowjob" deal, since Lieberman was well known for his flummoxed flatulations on the Senate floor, huffing and puffing with indignation over that errant act of fellatio.

That, I guess, was what some thought would pass for "Gravitas" back then, and like I said, it was a shit call. Still, most everyone who was paying attention knew that Bill Clinton had overseen a decent run in the 90s, the Country was way better off than it had been in '92, and he was widely regarded as a fairly popular figure exiting the WH. Not to mention the fact that the '98 midterms had effectively put this shit about the blowjob sinking him with the public, straight away. When he came out on stage during the 2000 convention, IIRC, he was greeted like a rock star.

Dubya, OTOH, was a no-show in '08. For good reason.

[jeff47]

34. Gore did not have to run away from Clinton

The press was still making Clinton toxic because of the whole Monica thing.

That's what the press claimed. The people didn't give a damn. In fact, they loved Clinton. Guess which one has more votes for president?

[hfojvt]

35. some people loved him

but it appears his favorability was below 50% for most of the campaign season. http://www.gallup.com/poll/156362/bill-clinton-popular.aspx

The M$M went to war against Gore anyway, but closeness with Clinton would give them another hammer to pound with.

[joshcryer]

10. They'll run left of Obama, yeah.

There's no doubt in my mind Hillary's platform will look freakishly progressive compared to Obama 2008.

She'll be the first non-incumbent to support gay marriage.

She'll be the first to support marijuana legalization.

[Fearless]

12. And equally to the left of her own from 2008.

But still supporting the TPP...

I love politicians.

[joshcryer]

13. It's all about the polls.

Obama understood that. I have no doubt in my mind that Obama, the person, not the politician, is far more ideologically left than his political persona puts off. It's mind numbing.

You know how politicians are known to be liars? I for one wish a politician would run on whatever bullshit platform their copy-testers thought was electable, and once elected, went far left. That would be so fucking glorious. Own the lies, rather than being two faced and doing whatever is politically expedient. The people would love it.

If TPP passes under Obama I bet even Hillary comes out critical of it. It'd be a great talking point since she flip flopped on NAFTA back in 2008 (which Obama used as political fuel).

[Fearless]

14. As I said I *love* politicians.

[joshcryer]

15. I'm with you.

[Fearless]

16. +1

[octoberlib]

28. +1

I think a lot of Democratic politicians come to DC with shiny ideals and run smack into the status quo and the systemic corruption in our system of government . Campaign finance reform would help some of this.

[Historic NY]

19. Yeah running from a 2 term elected Democrat always works out.

[Prophet 451]

20. I suspect it'll be to the right

Firstly, the beltway is far more conservative that the population. Secondly, the media virtually dictate who the acceptable candidates are and the media is entirely corporate. Thirdly, the US seems to only ever have minor blips in an otherwise rightward trajectory over the last eighty-odd years. Fourth, I'm still pretty sure that it will be Christie for the GOP nomination and, while he's hard right, the media will pretend he's a moderate, forcing the Democratic nominee to "moderate" toward his (hard right) positions.

I could be wrong, I hope I'm wrong but that's how I see it going.

[Eleanors38]

21. Overriding problem: The Democratic Party is now so corporate...

that it essentially refuses to define itself. This leaves little room for leadership (lead with what?), and allows the GOPer to de facto define the Party. There is very little presence of "left" politics (though talking heads have an obsession with their promiscuous definition of it), so whoever takes a more liberal approach MUST literally run 2 campaigns: (1) An aggressive, hit first and more frequently campaign against the GOPers; and (2) A probably disruptive uprooting of the old Beltway mumblers who run the Party. On the latter, McGovern didn't have to do this due to a coalescing of anti-war/progressive forces which did the job for him in '72. Whoever runs as a liberal now will have to ghost-write a second campaign him/her self, a hugely tough job. This person will face complete opposition from BOTH parties and MSM.

[treestar]

22. It's dumb

It encourages a Republican president. The electorate is already sort of primed to think that the Presidency should alternate between the parties.

[JaneyVee]

23. COMPLETELY DISAGREE. Only way next D Prez will get elected

Is for the most part defending Obamas economic record, social issues record, with talk of "building" on Obama's improved economy. Some issues they can stray, but they need OFA backing and strategies.

[Separation]

24. I disagree

Unless Obama is caught in some weird shit, or kicks an orphan that just isnt gonna happen. IMHO he is going to support Biden and really piss off Clinton.

[Starry Messenger]

25. That didn't do Gore much good though.

Not that there weren't a lot of other factors.

I don't think it would be smart for a candidate to run away from Obama. There are a ton of things he could or couldn't do, but he still quite popular and garnered very high votes.

Hopefully the next candidate can run on building on what has been already done. Plus jobs and working on poverty.

[FSogol]

26. Disagree. Two years from now, the Repubs will be sorry they called it Obamacare

because they won't be able to take credit for it.

[geek tragedy]

30. On some issues they will, but they're not going to run against Obama like Republicans did

against Bush.

Are they going to run away from the ACA? No, they're going to be stuck on that one. Running against it means you'll work with Republicans to dismantle it.

Are they going to run on restoring DOMA and DADT?

Are they going to vote on less regulation of Wall Street? Re-invading Iraq? Reversing the withdrawal from Afghanistan?
Support war with Iran?

There's certainly room to argue that Obama didn't go far enough, but you won't see many people on the Democratic side treating Obama like a pariah. Not while they depend on his coalition to win.

[alc]

31. a long way until then

the economy could turn around. ACA could be a success. EOs could get things done that Congress won't do. If those happen the candidate will campaign on "more of the same" (in the general) and further left (in the primary).

Or "recovery" could continue to be jobless. ACA could still be in crisis according to the media. And EOs get bogged down in courts just and piss off Congress more keeping anything from happening. In that case the message will be "bipartisanship" (claiming Obama was ultra-partisan) in the general and whatever polls say works best in the primary.

And that's if foreign relations stay the same. There could be huge success in Israel or huge disaster in Syria, Iran, or elsewhere and people start paying more attention to foreign relations and accept that domestic economy sucks/succeeds with either party.

Or any combination of the above (continue Obama's foreign strategy and running from economics/ACA).

It's WAY too early to worry about that. We'll see some hints of the possible approaches in 2014 elections. And many campaign messages will be tested (pro and anti-Obama). But those won't necessarily be the messages that will work in 2016 and candidates will spend $100s millions to pick the one that will get 271 electoral votes.

[jeff47]

33. Did you advise the Gore campaign? (nt)

[Beacool]

36. Yeah, because that strategy worked so well for Gore and McCain.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

37. "Getting into politics is like stepping in dogshit." from The Motorcycle Diaries

[1000words]

38. The rhetoric will be whatever the public wants to hear

As long as folks keep falling for it, I don't hope for much change.

[JoePhilly]

39. "I'll get UE back up to 10%, DOW back down to 7500!!!!"

"Then, we're going BACK into IRAQ!!!"

"We'll reinstate DADT!!!"

"And I WILL KILL OBAMACARE!!!!!"

Sounds like a winning speech for sure.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

40. and gore and mccain both lost. if they are smart they will find a way to glorify obamas

achievement and give a clear image of what they want their presidency to look like