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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsViolence Significantly Increased by Social Interactions
Last edited Thu Jan 23, 2014, 03:35 PM - Edit history (1)
Andrew Papachristos, an associate professor of sociology at Yale, analyzed police and gun homicide records from 2006 to 2011 for people living in a high-crime neighborhood in Chicago. He found that 41 percent of all gun homicides occurred within a network of less than 4 percent of the neighborhood's population, and that the closer one is connected to a homicide victim, the greater that person's chances were for becoming a victim. Each social tie removed from a homicide victim decreased a person's odds of becoming a victim by 57 percent.
"What the findings essentially tell you is that the people who are most at risk of becoming a victim are sort of surrounded by victims within a few handshakes," Papachristos says. "These are young men who are actively engaged in the behaviors that got them in this network."
Papachristos says it makes sense to look at the spread of gun violence like the spread of a disease or an epidemic, comparing it to how people contract HIV. Much like the roles needle sharing and unprotected sex play in the spread of HIV, a person's behaviors and personal associations play a role in the spread of gun violence homicides, he says. "It's the behavior of sharing needles that puts you at risk for contracting HIV, not simply being poor and black and living in a certain neighborhood," Papachristos says. "The same is true with violence. It's who you hang around with that gets you in trouble."
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/11/14/gun-violence-significantly-increased-by-social-interactions
interesting study that perhaps points out a way to predict and possibly stop gun violence.
The Chicago police actually used the study to target gang members:
The effort by Austin District Cmdr. Barbara West comes as Chicago police try to quell gang violence with both innovative ideas and more traditional methods such as paying hundreds of officers to work overtime on their days off.
The strategy is based on research by Andrew Papachristos, a sociology professor at Yale University who conducted a study on the West Side several years ago that showed that much of the violence involved a relatively small number of victims and offenders.
A computer analysis showed a little more than 400 people across the city including about 25 in the Austin District are the most at-risk from among more than 16,000 gang members. There can be many reasons for making the list, including lengthy arrest records, the serious nature of the offenses and whether they have been shooting victims themselves.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-chicago-police-heat-list-20130721,0,3279169.story
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)Seems also to fall in line with other data which show most homicides are perpetrated by veteran criminals. Interesting, he keyed his findings from the victim's perspective.
On Edit: This study also confirms that most homicide victims are also veteran criminals.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)Therefore it will be ignored.
Rec
pediatricmedic
(397 posts)I think you are probably correct about it being ignored as well.
Lurks Often
(5,455 posts)The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)And reasonably self-evident to people with much experience of street life.
It makes hash of the insistence of many that they need a gun for self-defense, and indeed, that they face such danger in their lives that they must carry a gun at all times: that simply is not a rational belief, and where people insist on acting from irrational belief, good results seldom follow.
hack89
(39,171 posts)even in large cities, violence is not evenly distributed.
I agree that very few people need to carry a gun at all times - but then legal carry is not the issue that needs to be resolved. Cracking down on illegal gun sales and use should be a priority. Beef up the ATF so they can but a serious dent in illegal gun sales while focusing the justice system on the criminal use of guns - if you use a gun in the commission of a crime then you go away for a very long time.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)There should be serious tracking of sales, and registration, with requirements of reporting theft promptly and scrutiny of bulk purchases, and serious, intimidating sentences for 'straw purchases', affecting both buyer and seller.
But the point above remains.
Most who insist on carrying guns under concealed carry permits are acting irrationally, and at times this leads to use of the gun which is quite irrational, especially with the lure ( or goad ) of 'stand your ground' laws.
It is a fact that self-inflicted death, whether by accident or suicide, is a greater proportion of gun deaths than killings by criminals. This means that a person who possesses a gun is shouldering an increased risk of harm, and when this is done in the name of self defense, against dangers which are of lesser magnitude than the risk assumed, the act is irrational.
When people act irrationally, on the basis of false to fact beliefs, no good result is likely to obtain.
oldhippie
(3,249 posts)If so, is your ownership of such a device irrational, as the statistics are that you will never need to use it?
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)Possessing a fire-extinguisher presents no quantifiable risk in addition to those normally attendant on life, therefore there is nothing to balance against the potential risk of fire, in order to determine whether fire, or possessing the fire extinguisher, presents the greater risk to my well-being.
A person deciding to acquire a gun, and stating 'self-defense' as the reason, is taking on an additional risk of harm, merely by possessing and handling the weapon. This risk, including suicide and accident, is generally greater than the risk of harm in similar degree by action of some criminal assailant.
hack89
(39,171 posts)It is not a new concept and there is hard data.
Here for example is what happened in the ten years after Michigan liberalized their concealed carry laws:
But violent crimes have been rare among carrying a concealed weapon license holders. Only 2% of license holders have been sanctioned for any kind of misbehavior, State Police records show.
Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard said he has always been a proponent of people being able to protect themselves. The troublemakers, generally, aren't the people who go through the process to legally own and carry a gun -- it's the people who carry illegally who cause problems, he said. My position was, and still is, is that the people we have a problem with with guns aren't the people who are willing to follow the law and go through the hoops and training," Bouchard said.
http://www.freep.com/article/20110731/NEWS06/107310482/10-years-after-concealed-weapons-law-unclear-why-many-state-were-gun-shy
Michigan did not see an increase in murders or negligent manslaughter in that period - in fact the number dropped from 672 in 2001 to 567 in 2010.
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2001
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl05.xls
I doubt that you can show any state that experienced a meaningful increase in gun deaths after relaxing their concealed carry laws.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)Simply to stay within the items you have presented, two percent of 270,000 is not an insignificant number of persons, and any criminal action by these people involving a gun is a crime which likely would not have occurred without the carry permit.
One would have to examine reductions in other crime categories over the same period to get a fix on whether the reduction is greater than or less than the basic trend line of crime in that period.
Statistics from Florida indicate an increase in gun murders over the same period:
"Murders by firearms have increased dramatically in the state since 2000, when there were 499 gun murders, according to data from Florida Department of Law Enforcement. Gun murders have since climbed 38 percent with 691 murders committed with guns in 2011.
"Only partial numbers are available for 2012, but from January to June, there were 479 murders in Florida 358 of them committed with a gun. Thats an 8 percent increase in gun murders compared to the same period in 2011.
"Guns are now the weapons of choice in 75 percent of all homicides in Florida. Thats up from 56 percent in 2000.
"The rise in gun homicides in Florida comes at a time when the overall murder rate has declined in Florida, and violent crime has dropped statewide."
http://www.publicintegrity.org/2013/04/23/12542/firearm-ownership-rises-florida-gun-murders-increase
hack89
(39,171 posts)It is irrelevant to sucides or illegal gun use. It is also irrelevant to accidents in the home or domestic violence.
I personally think every gun owner should have a firearms owner card that comes with training requirements and a background check. Let's license owners.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)The press for such laws is rooted in people's false to fact beliefs about what dangers they face in their lives. You yourself acknowledge it to be the case, and the item you posted above reinforces this, that the generally law-abiding types who secure the permits in belief they need to carry a gun 'for self-defense' do not actually face any appreciable danger. Their belief that they face great danger, that sooner or later they will have to resort to armed violence to defend themselves, is a problem for society and culture as a whole, affecting everything from high politics down to individual's personal interactions with strangers and acquaintances and family.
When false to fact beliefs, and irrational decisions made on the basis of same, become the foundations of policy and law, and set a tone for large portions of society, no good result can ensue.
hack89
(39,171 posts)A period where we have cut our murder rate in half. When you can show an actual harm beyond your personal fears and dislike of guns, let me know.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)Rates of crime have been in decline even as the conviction self-defense by lethal force is a vital personal need is increasing, or in other words, the belief a gun is needed for self-defense bears no relation to actual risk of harm a person faces from other people.
hack89
(39,171 posts)What problem are you trying to solve here?
hack89
(39,171 posts)at the same time we saw the widespread liberalization of gun laws, widespread adoption of shall issue concealed carry, and an explosion in the popularity of semiautomatic rifles like the AR-15.
If you want to focus on individual states over short periods of time then knock yourself out - just be honest enough to admit that as a nation we are enjoying historically low levels of gun violence. It would be even lower if we could reduce our persistently steady suicide rate.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)You cited a specific state yourself, I replied with another specific state.
I am well aware rates of crime over-all have been in decline for years. But that does not mean that they might not have declined even further had other policies been pursued in some areas. Rates of homicide might well have been bouyed up to some degree by rising rates of gun ownership, and be above what they might have been had rates of gun ownership remained what they were of even declined from that.
I agree that the number of suicides committed with guns is very high, and given the efficacy of a gun for the purpose, it is obvious there would be fewer such suicides if fewer people owned guns, and further that a significant proportion of suicides which are committed with guns, might not be successfully pursued, or even actually attempted, without so efficient a tool for the purpose ready to hand. A number of the guns employed for suicide were certainly originally obtained in the belief they were needed for self-defense.
hack89
(39,171 posts)we can't restrict civil liberties just because certain people don't think the right way. Can we?
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)It is never sound policy to cater to cowardice, and allow the people who display cowardly fears to set the social tone.
People who, when at no appreciable risk of harm, imagine themselves to need deadly force on their person just to face the world each day, display cowardice of the highest water.
hack89
(39,171 posts)But rather own several AR-15s for competitive target shooting, happy to see I have nothing to be ashamed of. Thanks.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)I build things like this, myself....
This is a Caudron G.VI of Escadrille C575, operating in Lebanon shortly after the end of WWI. It is scratch-built, in 1/72 scale.
This is an Albatros D.V of Jasta 4, brought down intact in the English lines in July of 1917. It is from a kit, in the same scale.
This is a 'Nieuport Scout' of 60 Sqdn., its pilot, 2nd Lt. C. S. Hall. was killed in it April 7, 1917, just short of his nineteenth birthday. Also from a kit, in the same scale.
This is a Boeing F4B-4 of VMF 10 at San Diego, early 1932. Also from a kit in the same scale.
hack89
(39,171 posts)I love aviation history and airplanes, especially WWII bombers. Last summer I had the once in a lifetime experience of having a B-17 fly low over my house as it came in to land.
Beautiful models by the way.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)There's some good evidence that lowering lead levels is leading to lowering of violence levels in many nations, not just the USA.
hack89
(39,171 posts)Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)Might as well go ahead and tell us what it is you think.
hack89
(39,171 posts)That despite the actual facts that say otherwise.
But I was rude to answer you as I did - I apologize.
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)Egnever
(21,506 posts)We need a study to figure out that most of chicagos violence is gang related and that they tend to retaliate against each other?
When we allow universities to spend money on studies like this is it any wonder no one can afford college?