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G_j

(40,367 posts)
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 09:13 AM Feb 2014

6 Unanswered Questions About Obama's Drone War

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2014/02/6-unanswered-questions-obama-drones

—By H.H. Bhojani| Tue Feb. 4, 2014 3:01 AM GMT

On January 23, 2009, President Barack Obama authorized his first drone strike. The attack, launched against a compound in northwestern Pakistan, killed between 7 and 15 people—but missed the Taliban hideout the Central Intelligence Agency thought it was targeting. Over the next five years, the CIA carried out more than 390 known drone strikes in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia. (The agency carried out 51 drone strikes between 2004 and 2009, during the Bush administration.)

Obama made a brief reference to the drone campaign in last week's State of the Union address, assuring Congress that "I've imposed prudent limits on the use of drones." This wasn't the first time the president had acknowledged the need for a clear drone policy. Last May, Obama remarked at the National Defense University, "This new technology raises profound questions—about who is targeted, and why." Yet the answers the administration has provided to these profound questions and the prudent limits it has put in place remain vague.

Here are six major questions about the US drone program that remain unanswered a decade after the first strike:

1. Who's being targeted?
<snip>

2. What constitutes an "imminent threat"?
<snip>

3. What about signature strikes?
<snip>

4. Does Congress really know what's going on?
<snip>

5. How are civilian casualties avoided—and counted?

The Presidential Policy Guidance states that lethal strikes may be carried out only with "near certainty that non-combatants will not be injured or killed." However, the Obama administration counts all military-age males killed by drones as militants. That explains why official counts of civilian deaths vary widely from independent counts. While in Sen. Feinstein stated last year that annual civilian casualties from drones fall in the "single digits", the Bureau of Investigative Journalism estimates that total civilian casualties since 2004 in Pakistan alone have ranged from 416 to 951.

6. How does the administration justify the targeting of American citizens?
<snip>
49 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
6 Unanswered Questions About Obama's Drone War (Original Post) G_j Feb 2014 OP
Recommend. morningfog Feb 2014 #1
Drones + secret extrajudicial kill lists MannyGoldstein Feb 2014 #2
Nothing. Nothing at all. nt Demo_Chris Feb 2014 #13
Answer 5. If a drone kills them, then they are "combatants". GoneFishin Feb 2014 #3
First month without a US drone strike in Pakistan for over two years ProSense Feb 2014 #4
Maybe they just stopped reporting them whatchamacallit Feb 2014 #5
"First month without a US drone strike in Pakistan for over two years" cali Feb 2014 #6
Actually, ProSense Feb 2014 #8
The Drone Unknowns G_j Feb 2014 #11
The BIJ reports aren't from the government. n/t ProSense Feb 2014 #12
"The BIJ reports aren't from the government" cali Feb 2014 #14
WTF? ProSense Feb 2014 #15
Yes bobduca Feb 2014 #21
Sorry, I don't click on your links. ProSense Feb 2014 #22
but its a link to your work bobduca Feb 2014 #35
Sorry, no sale. ProSense Feb 2014 #39
You see, the joke is, EVERY link to DU is work-safe for you! n/t bobduca Feb 2014 #40
Clapper and Alexander don't lie, either! Titonwan Feb 2014 #42
So? blackspade Feb 2014 #18
Well, ProSense Feb 2014 #19
I think you have me confused with another poster.... blackspade Feb 2014 #34
Sorry, fixed. n/t ProSense Feb 2014 #38
No problem! blackspade Feb 2014 #41
it's point bobduca Feb 2014 #23
Oh, so Titonwan Feb 2014 #30
Well, ProSense Feb 2014 #31
that's great, however G_j Feb 2014 #7
Legitimate questions. Still, the report is a good sign. n/t ProSense Feb 2014 #9
Maybe we ran out? eggplant Feb 2014 #10
Ran out of what? Drones or terrorists? No can't be terrorists, they will never run out, A Simple Game Feb 2014 #17
It's like hot dogs and hot dog buns. eggplant Feb 2014 #47
It ends if "We the People" ever take back control of our Country. n/t A Simple Game Feb 2014 #48
Of money. n/t ReRe Feb 2014 #20
Bwahahahaha! There's an endless supply of that. Just cut social services and voila! valerief Feb 2014 #32
Snort! Titonwan Feb 2014 #43
This is terrible policy. blackspade Feb 2014 #16
I thought that was the idea - To create enemies to fight for fun and profit. RC Feb 2014 #24
^^^^this^^^^ L0oniX Feb 2014 #26
x-actly! blackspade Feb 2014 #33
"War is a Racket" Titonwan Feb 2014 #44
Don't forget about JSOC which is under direct control of the POTUS and his mini me. L0oniX Feb 2014 #25
Fomenting more terrorism which we can spend more tax dollars on! bobduca Feb 2014 #27
"How does the administration justify the targeting of American citizens?" Titonwan Feb 2014 #28
Won't somebody please think of the jobs! SHRED Feb 2014 #29
Drones nil desperandum Feb 2014 #36
The drone conceit would seem exactly the "permanent war footing" DirkGently Feb 2014 #37
Well Said. bvar22 Feb 2014 #46
especially when others follow in our steps G_j Feb 2014 #49
Question 7: How many new Al Qaeda recruits are raised after a drone strike? Octafish Feb 2014 #45

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
4. First month without a US drone strike in Pakistan for over two years
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 09:22 AM
Feb 2014
First month without a US drone strike in Pakistan for over two years

February 3, 2014 by Jack Serle

There were no reported drone strikes in Pakistan in January. This is the first calendar month without a drone strike in more than two years.

The last drone attack was reported in the country on December 25 2013 – 40 days ago. At least three people were killed in this strike, the only Christmas Day strike reported in Pakistan in 10 years of drone attacks.

It is not clear why there has been such a pause. Last year, although the number of strikes dropped considerably, Bureau data shows that there was on average a strike every two weeks.

The longest gap between strikes in 2013 lasted for 42 days between April 17 and May 29 2013. This pause ended with the death of Wali Ur Rehman, the deputy leader of the TTP. The gap in strikes coincided with Pakistan’s general election, in which drones were a major campaigning point, and also with the run-up to President Obama’s speech at the National Defense University, in which he announced new policy guidelines around covert lethal actions.

- more -

http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2014/02/03/first-month-without-a-us-drone-strike-in-pakistan-for-over-two-years/

Think Progress:

<...>

However, it’s not obvious what would be causing a similar problem today. There hasn’t been an incident between the United States and Pakistan on that level of late, and, by one metric (high-level official meetings), there’s been something of an uptick in recent relations.

Another possible explanation is that the Administration is, for whatever reason, winding down aggressive use of drones in Pakistan. Last year, President Obama committed to scaling down the targeted killing program, arguing that “we cannot use force everywhere that a radical ideology takes root,” remarks he echoed in this year’s State of the Union. Secretary of State John Kerry has been even more conclusive, saying during a 2013 visit to Pakistanthat “the program will end,” purportedly “soon,” because “we have eliminated most of the threat.” It is possible, then, that the break in strikes is simply a reflection of the broader decline in targeted killings. The less U.S. policymakers rely on the strategy, the less frequent strikes are likely to be.

- more -

http://thinkprogress.org/world/2014/02/03/3239111/drones-month-january-2014/

Originally posted here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024436677

whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)
5. Maybe they just stopped reporting them
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 09:30 AM
Feb 2014

That said, glad we agree it's a good thing the administration is doing less murder.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
6. "First month without a US drone strike in Pakistan for over two years"
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 09:37 AM
Feb 2014

lol. so the administration didn't kill any civilians by drone in Pakistan in the last month.

Kudos to the administration!

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
8. Actually,
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 09:55 AM
Feb 2014

"lol. so the administration didn't kill any civilians by drone in Pakistan in the last month. "

...the report says no drone strikes in the montn. There were no civilian casualties in Pakistan in 2013.

In fact reported civilian casualties in Pakistan have fallen sharply since 2010, with no confirmed reports of civilian casualties in 2013.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024377570#post4

G_j

(40,367 posts)
11. The Drone Unknowns
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 10:02 AM
Feb 2014
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/10/what-we-dont-know-about-drones

The Drone Unknowns
—By Adam Serwer| Mon Oct. 1, 2012 7:15 AM GMT

We don't know how many civilians are killed in drone strikes, but we do know the US government is almost certainly wrong about it.

That's one conclusion you could draw from a report on the impact of the use of drones in targeted killing by the the Human Rights Clinic at Columbia Law School and the Center for Civilians in Conflict*, released Sunday, a year to the day that radical American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki was killed in a drone strike in Yemen. While the US government has maintained that few if any non-militants are killed in drone strikes, reports about how targeting decisions are made, the realities of airborne warfare, and the basic fallibility of humankind call the Obama administration's claims of precision into question. There's also the problem that some behaviors which might seem to indicate "guilt" out of context, like carrying a gun, are common in the areas being targeted. "A civilian carrying a gun, which is a cultural norm in parts of Pakistan, does not know if such behavior will get him killed by a drone," the report notes. While "personality" strikes are aimed at specific individuals, the government also conducts "signature strikes" which hit anonymous individuals on the basis of a "pattern of behavior."

Because the government has yet to even officially acknowledge the existence of the CIA's targeted killing program or its military counterpart in the Joint Special Operations Command however, it's hard to evaluate the Obama administration's claims about avoiding civilian harm. The report notes that the dearth of first-hand information from the areas most frequently targeted by drone strikes means that determining who is a "militant" and who is not, particularly after the fact, is very difficult. That's why third-party estimates, which cast serious doubt on the government's assessments, vary so widely, and why the Obama administration itself may not even know how many civilians are being killed. Here's a chart from the report:

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]
 

cali

(114,904 posts)
14. "The BIJ reports aren't from the government"
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 10:29 AM
Feb 2014

and everything that the government says can be believed without question, pro.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
15. WTF?
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 10:31 AM
Feb 2014

"and everything that the government says can be believed without question, pro. "

Today, it's all laughs and silly assertions. Did someone expose the lame faux outrage?



Titonwan

(785 posts)
42. Clapper and Alexander don't lie, either!
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 12:05 PM
Feb 2014

We all really need to learn to love killer robots from the sky.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
19. Well,
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 10:54 AM
Feb 2014

"What's your point? "

...I posted information from the BIJ, and the poster responded with an article about government data.

What was your "point"?

G_j

(40,367 posts)
7. that's great, however
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 09:49 AM
Feb 2014

that does not address the questions which have remained unanswered since the first strike.

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
17. Ran out of what? Drones or terrorists? No can't be terrorists, they will never run out,
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 10:42 AM
Feb 2014

at least not till a more profitable enemy is found.

eggplant

(3,911 posts)
47. It's like hot dogs and hot dog buns.
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 02:00 PM
Feb 2014

They never run out at the same time. You've always got some left of one of them, and then you have to get more, ...

Where does it end?

blackspade

(10,056 posts)
16. This is terrible policy.
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 10:42 AM
Feb 2014

It needs to stop. Now.
It does nothing to further law and order and only creates more enemies.

 

RC

(25,592 posts)
24. I thought that was the idea - To create enemies to fight for fun and profit.
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 11:11 AM
Feb 2014

To keep us on a war economy as an excuse for not being able to afford programs that help "We the people...", i.e., the Safety Nets.

 

L0oniX

(31,493 posts)
25. Don't forget about JSOC which is under direct control of the POTUS and his mini me.
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 11:18 AM
Feb 2014

Yea ...how many innocent civilians have been murdered? I'm sure we can trust the murderers to tell us. Trials and juries are so last century.

Watch "Dirty Wars" and then tell about how we don't murder people. THE US GOVERNMENT IS A TERRORIST!

bobduca

(1,763 posts)
27. Fomenting more terrorism which we can spend more tax dollars on!
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 11:22 AM
Feb 2014

A Wonderous Project for the New American Century!

What!?! Did you expect the killer-robot-military-industrial-complex to use kickstarter or something?

Titonwan

(785 posts)
28. "How does the administration justify the targeting of American citizens?"
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 11:34 AM
Feb 2014

It can't. The armchair warriors even have their own medal now!

"The new medal will rank just below the Distinguished Flying Cross. It ranks above the Purple Heart, which recognizing battlefield injuries, and the Bronze Star, which, when awarded with a "V" device, honors heroic actions in combat."

http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/article/20130215/NEWS/302150319/Purple-Heart-group-New-medal-8216-insulting-

As a veteran, I think this is beyond repulsive. Why not award the REMF's while you're at it? Waste people at weddings and burials(!)- go home to dinner with family- and get a fuckin' medal for it. Insane.

nil desperandum

(654 posts)
36. Drones
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 11:56 AM
Feb 2014

One thing no one ever talks about in these articles is the US response should AQ or others start using targeted drone killings of US Citizens. I can build a really good drone for less than a grand that can carry a payload heavy enough to kill several people. Using a cell phone GPS chip i can program that drone to orbit several waypoints and then detonate at a predetermined time. Or I can use a camera and fly it into a home or vehicle.

AQ is funded well enough to use weapons like this against us. Indiscriminate use of these devices to kill targeted individuals and anyone nearby will hardly grant us any moral high ground when these hobby level weapons are used against us.

The problem with technology is that it always gets cheaper, and it can always be used in ways never intended. As seen recently with the ability to deliver the weight of a six pack of beer to ice fisherman, a more deadly cargo of similar weight could also be delivered. If the current legal battle over FAA authority to regulate these devices goes against the FAA things can get interesting quickly.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/02/04/this-lawyer-says-beer-delivery-drone-should-be-free-to-fly/


Indiscriminate targeting of individuals in violation of the airspace of nations we are not at war with is a particularly immoral act. Either we are at war with Yemen or Pakistan or we are not. If we are at war their airspace is open to offensive operations, if we are not at war what legal justifications are we using that actually pass any test of legality in killing individuals through the violation of sovereign airspace?

DirkGently

(12,151 posts)
37. The drone conceit would seem exactly the "permanent war footing"
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 11:57 AM
Feb 2014

Obama said he opposed in the SOTU speech. The entire logic is that the U.S. in in a permanent state of worldwide, borderless war with shifting groups of "militants" or "terrorists," determined by unaccountable processes, carried out in secret, and subject to no apparent repercussions.

It's Bush-era conceit, relying on the concept of "war" to enhance the power of the executive. Cheney's baby, rationalized by Woo and others cooperative White House lawyers, to deliberately distort the balance of powers contemplated in the Constitution for the purpose of creating a "unitary executive" or whatever they're calling it now.

This will be the ugliest part of Obama's legacy, eventually condemned here as it is already everywhere else as a crime against humanity and an usupportable assumption of worldwide authority on the part of the U.S. that neither we nor anyone else accept from any other country.

Whether the number of innocents killed so far is in the hundreds or thousands is largely beside the point. We don't have the right to do this. We do not have the authority to rain death down on whomever we see fit, on whatever basis we claim, anytime, and anywhere.

Moreover, it's not going to solve terrorism or protect the country. It doesn't matter whether we've annhilated one civilian village or wedding party or a hundred. Every Hellfire is guaranteed to produce more anti-American sentiment than it can ever hope to snuff out.

Obama is wrong on this. History will blame him, and us, we will spend a long time crawling our way back toward any kind of worldwide credibility as an aribter of humanitarian standards or the rules of war or the wrongness of extra-territorial aggression.

bvar22

(39,909 posts)
46. Well Said.
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 01:42 PM
Feb 2014

Recommending Post #37 by DirkGently

[font size=3]"Obama is wrong on this.
History will blame him, and us, we will spend a long time crawling our way back toward any kind of worldwide credibility as an aribter of humanitarian standards or the rules of war or the wrongness of extra-territorial aggression."
[/font]



G_j

(40,367 posts)
49. especially when others follow in our steps
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 02:12 PM
Feb 2014

and we have zero moral standing to say anything about it.

Octafish

(55,745 posts)
45. Question 7: How many new Al Qaeda recruits are raised after a drone strike?
Tue Feb 4, 2014, 12:43 PM
Feb 2014

One for each victim or targetted terrorist?

Ten for each victim or targetted terrorist?

One hundred for each victim or targetted terrorist?

The Military Industrial Complex needs more enemies.



George Bush Takes Charge: The Uses of "Counter-Terrorism"

By Christopher Simpson
Covert Action Quarterly 58

A paper trail of declassified documents from the Reagan‑Bush era yields valuable information on how counter‑terrorism provided a powerful mechanism for solidifying Bush's power base and launching a broad range of national security initiatives.

During the Reagan years, George Bush used "crisis management" and "counter‑terrorism" as vehicles for running key parts of the clandestine side of the US government.

Bush proved especially adept at plausible denial. Some measure of his skill in avoiding responsibility can be taken from the fact that even after the Iran‑Contra affair blew the Reagan administration apart, Bush went on to become the "foreign policy president," while CIA Director William Casey, by then conveniently dead, took most of the blame for a number of covert foreign policy debacles that Bush had set in motion.

The trail of National Security Decision Directives (NSDDS) left by the Reagan administration begins to tell the story. True, much remains classified, and still more was never committed to paper in the first place. Even so, the main picture is clear: As vice president, George Bush was at the center of secret wars, political murders, and America's convoluted oil politics in the Middle East.

SNIP...

Reagan and the NSC also used NSDDs to settle conflicts among security agencies over bureaucratic turf and lines of command. It is through that prism that we see the first glimmers of Vice President Bush's role in clandestine operations during the 1980s.

CONTINUED...

http://books.google.com/books?id=YZqRyj_QXf8C&pg=PA75&lpg=PA75&dq=christopher+simpson+The+Uses+of+%E2%80%98Counter-Terrorism%E2%80%99&source=bl&ots=8klB0PzATX&sig=hi9DpE3qF43Oefh7iGn79W4jXQs&hl=en&ei=zAFQTeriBsr2gAfu1Mgc&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBYQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=christopher%20simpson%20The%20Uses%20of%20%E2%80%98Counter-Terrorism%E2%80%99&f=false



And some thought it would be hard, after the fall of communism.

PS: Forgot about the peace dividend already, America?

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