House seats that can be flipped

[hfojvt]

Going by results in the last Presidential election, handily compiled by a Kossack http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections#

+% of Obama win, (-% of Romney win) in various Congressional districts

A - seats we ought to capture - total of 3

CA-21 +12
CA-31 +16
NJ-2 +8

B - seats with a numbers in our favor - total of 15

CA-10 +3
CO-6 +6
FL-13 +1
FL-27 +6
IA-3 +4
IL-13 +0.3
MN-2 +0.1
MN-3 +0.8
NJ-3 +5
NV-3 +0.8
NY-2 +4
NY-11 +4
NY-19 +6
VA-2 +1.5
WA-8 +1.6

C - Seats with a decent shot (that Romney barely won) - total of 10

CA-25 -2
FL-25 -2
NY-22 -0.4
NY-23 -1.2
OH-10 -2
PA-7 -2
PA-8 -0.1
VA-4 -1
VA-10 -1
WA-3 -2

28 seats where Republican incumbents should be vulnerable anyway. There are seats where Democratic incumbents are vulnerable as well. Perhaps those are worth noting, because we need to fight to hold them as well as fighting to win others

D - seats that are long shots, but perhaps doable - total of 41 (15 of them where Romney's margin was less than 5%)

CA-39 -4
CA-49 -6
CO-3 -6
FL-2 -5
FL-7 -5
FL-10 -7
FL-12 -9
FL-15 -7
FL-16 -9
IA-4 -8
IL-6 -8
IL-16 -8
KS-3 -10
MI-1 -9
MI-3 -7
MI-4 -8
MI-7 -3
MI-8 -3
MI-11 -5
NE-2 -7
NJ-4 -9
NJ-5 -3
NJ-7 -7
NJ-11 -5
NM-2 -7
NV-2 -8
OH-1 -6
OH-5 -9
OH-14 -3
OH-15 -5
OH-16 -8
PA-6 -3
PA-11 -9.5
PA-15 -3
PA-16 -6
VA-1 -8
VA-5 -7
WI-1 -4
WI-6 -7
WI-7 -3
WI-8 -4

[Dawson Leery]

1. k/r

[herding cats]

2. Good information to have!

What do we need to pull the majority, something like a 33 seat gain, right?

[hfojvt]

3. I was gonna look that up

but I am not sure off the top of my head

Perhaps somebody will be along who has that number at their fingertips.

[herding cats]

5. I was off by quite a bit.

The Republicans currently hold 232 and we have 200. There are three empty seats at the moment.

This could be doable for us!

[hfojvt]

7. so we need a net of 18

Then it would be 218-217.

[herding cats]

8. Yes, and that's an obtainable number.

We just need to work on supporting the right candidates and work hard in the right areas on getting out the vote. We could do this!

[Art_from_Ark]

40. It might theoretically be obtainable

but it would be unprecedented. No party in the White House has ever taken back the House of Representatives in a mid-term election in at least the last 104 years. And no party in the White House has ever won more than 9 House seats in a mid-term election during that time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election

[eissa]

4. Yes, my district is on the list!

Can't stand Jeff Denham.

[hfojvt]

6. Does he have a strong opponent?

I use this site to keep track of races http://www.politics1.com/congress.htm

[eissa]

10. Well, he at least has an opponent this time

Unlike in previous elections where he went unopposed, or against a weak candidate. Michael Eggman has been getting some positive feedback -- although you can't tell by the number of "likes" of his FB page

https://www.facebook.com/eggmanforcongress

[blue14u]

30. That is a great site!

I see the seat for Trey Radel is open..
I found out last week he had quit January 27th.

I only knew because I called Congressman Grayson's office
about another subject and in the conversation with a staffer
we got on the subject of the Naples area and I was told his seat is open due
to Radel quiting.
Humm.... the GOP kept that one quiet.
So I will look it up to see if we have a candidate to support in that area.
If someone already knows, please share.

[JNelson6563]

9. MI-1 Benishek=asshole

The Dem candidate is General Jerry Cannon. If the DNC targets this race again (unlikely at this point) I hope they pull their heads out of their asses this time 'round.

Cannon is working the district pretty well and that is quite a feat. It's 31+ counties big! Full time job just to achieve name recognition. Also, happy to report, the state party chair has been making a county by county tour of the Upper Peninsula. Very important to not neglect that far off, distant (dare I say, even mythical!) land.

Julie
On edit: Thanks for bringing this data to DU and starting a thread that can be very informative! I hope many reply and we get a good snapshot of many races. We have so much to do!

[hfojvt]

19. in days of yore

we used to camp at Indian lake almost every summer.

Kind of a strange lake. It seemed to be 5 foot deep all the way across. When I swam in a lake I would wade out until the water got too deep. Sorta tells you where the safe area is.

Except in Indian lake it got up to my chin and as I kept going, it did not get any deeper. I got about a quarter mile off of shore and decided I should quit wading, because I was already so darn far away from shore.

Michigan 1 does seem like a bit of a long shot, given the advantage incumbents have in name recognition and money. And Romney won the district by 9%. Still doable if 5% of Romney voters can be flipped, or if our team has a very good ground game.

[MineralMan]

11. Thanks for posting that list.

I'd add MN CD-6, Michele Bachmann's district. Even though it went for Romney, Bachmann only one by 1%. There's a fair chance it can be turned in 2014, I believe.

I hope every DUer will look at this list and see if there aren't opportunities to help turn one in their own states.

GOTV 2014 and Beyond!

[hfojvt]

12. with no incumbent

that one could be winnable, but a bit of an uphill climb since Romney won the district by 15%. Depends kind of on quality of candidates and also if they have a bruising primary.

[MineralMan]

15. If there is a very well-known DFL candidate who is popular in the

area, there's a decent chance. Even though the district is +something Republican, Minnesota often votes in unusual ways, and the demographics in that district are changing. Turnout will make the difference. If GOTV efforts are strong and speak to those who don't normally vote, it's possible to turn the district, I think. In 2012, Bachmann barely scraped by. If the GOP runs another tea bagger, the odds improve greatly for the DFL candidate, I think. The teabagger influence is strong in the district, and conservatives dominate the caucus and convention system there.

We'll see. Since my district borders that one, I'm going to focus a good part of my attention on CD-6 this year.

[Laelth]

13. No GA seats on the list.

GA got gerrymandered into complete Republican dominance in 2010. Quite sad, actually, and a disservice to the 45% of the population that votes for Democrats.

That said, we have a chance to pick up a Senate seat and the governorship this year. If you can, please donate below:

Michelle Nunn for Senate (Sam Nunn's daughter)
Jason Carter for Governor (Jimmy Carter's grandson)

Georgia will go blue in a few cycles. Anything that concerned Democrats from other states can do to help us would be most appreciated! Still much work to be done.

-Laelth

[hfojvt]

16. Well Georgia does have 5 Democratic Reps (out of 14)

and one of the Democrats, Barrow in GA-12 I would list as potentially vulnerable as he is in a district that Romney won by 9 points.

He'd be in group A if I was doing this from the Republican side.

[Laelth]

17. Spot on. Barrow has been vulnerable for some time.

He's the last white Democrat from the Deep South, and his seat is always in danger. Much to his credit, he has managed to hold the seat through a couple of tough Republican challenges, but it's hard to say how long the seat can be held. The Republicans in Atlanta did their best to draw the district in such a way that he would lose, but he won anyway.

That said, I think the tide is turning. I suspect his seat is safe this year. It's the Republicans in Georgia who will see their margins of victory narrow until the state is principally blue ... only a couple of cycles from now, I suspect.

-Laelth

[hfojvt]

20. strong candidates in statewide races

might have some coat-tails too.

[Laelth]

21. Agreed.

Having Michelle Nunn on the ticket makes a world of difference. I've said before, and I still argue, that Democrats have the best chance of winning in conservative districts when a white, female Democrat is running. That peels white women away from their Republican-voting husbands and gives the Democrat a real shot.

-Laelth

[hfojvt]

14. my previous list

I went by Congressional races in 2008, but the districts have been re-drawn since then. Still I see some of the same districts.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4936813

[treestar]

18. K&R

[calimary]

22. WOW, hfojvt! A heart for you!

This is a LOT of work, and it's a great service you've done, relaying it to us from Daily Kos! It does indeed need to be said, read, and SPREAD!

THANK YOU!!!!!

[grattsl]

23. Don't forget the Clay Aiken race should be on this list.

I lived in Raleigh 10 years ago. He had ALOT of fans in his home town. I could see him winning.

[ReRe]

24. Thanks for this...

... exactly what we need to be looking at right now, while old man winter blows outside. So much we can do via social media, including donating to candidates that need help. We so need to GTVO in this midterm.
I hope we can make it the biggest midterm of our life.

[underthematrix]

25. if peeps want to keep their healthcare and get a job, they better make sure

EVERY SEAT IS BLUE.

[VanillaRhapsody]

26. ^^^^THIS is what we should be focusing on....^^^

[The Magistrate]

27. I Do Not Buy The 'We're Doomed In the House' Line, Sir

The thing is do-able, especially if the other side co-operates, as it seems likely to do....

[Spitfire of ATJ]

28. Total number of seats needed in the House = 17.

[marble falls]

29. Poop. None are in Texas. If we could get out the vote here we'd get bluer. Perry got his big land ..

slide victory with only 11% of eligible voters. Only 20% of eligible voters bothered to vote.

The only way that the GOP holds Texas is it manages to discourage voters. If Democrats could only get folks to the polls most of them would vote Democratic.

[PosterChild]

31. Nothing in MD! (nt)

[Brother Buzz]

32. Ca-31 just became a slam dunk with yesterday's anouncment of asshole Gary Miller's (R) retirment

Ca-31 leans Democratic after redistricting and I'm thinking Miller read the writing on the wall.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/gary-miller-leave-congress-103453.html

[MadashellLynn]

33. Flip a District

Bill Maher has a project called "Flip a District" where the populace give names and info about their Congressman they would like to see unseated in the coming election. His show will spotlight the candidate and drop a load of money in the one found to have the nuttiest and most reprehensible in a district that can be flipped.

On the show, Maher solicited viewers to submit nominations via Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram using hashtag #flipadistrict. Bill will ultimately choose the district to pursue, but it will be based on viewer response.

Here is a link to the page with the best explanation and some links.

http://lostremote.com/how-bill-maher-is-enlisting-social-to-unseat-an-incumbent-congressperson_b41038

[geardaddy]

34. I'd love to see Kline and Paulsen get the boot

here in MN.

[otherone]

35. We have to keep my district this year

Nan Hayworth is taking on Sean Maloney..

[blue14u]

36. This is a great

thread. Thanks for all the information. .
BTW..We can take Texas if we get the women who showed up for

Wendy Davis in support of the Pro Choice battle..
We can do this. We did it in Virginia and New York and we can show up
this year 2014 for Democrats.

Like Cha is saying... VOTING MATTERS it will swing a race!





GOTV AND VOTE 2014.
I put little notes everywhere around my space to have a reminder everyday
to go vote. I have one on my dash also.. Keep it foremost in the mind. There are no excuses this year.. we can change the conversation by voting.
Make your % count this year..

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. The only reason CA 49 is even possible

and I won't hold my breath, though chances are better, is redistricting.

That is Issa's district

[blue14u]

39. Wow, it would be

awesome to see Issa defeated. Any word on a lead there?

I get happy just thinking about it!

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. A dem just joined DU and they are running against him

the reason why I am saying it is possible is this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ca49_109.gif

It used to go much father east into Riverside County. Hell, it used to go EAST of the I-15. That coastal area is red, just not arterial red. And it is suffering from a population shift.

[blue14u]

42. I saw Debbie Wasserman in an

interview about a month or 2 ago. She put it like this....
" I quote.. I don't see any states trying to turn red... they are turning purple then blue" end quote. .. .How true!
I thought that was a very good point and I see the same thing..
I will be pulling for your district...
Hopefully I will see the candidate here on DU and give them a rec!
Issa needs to go away..

!:dem

[nadinbrzezinski]

43. Oh it is not my district

I just cover local politics and we are seeing this in coastal areas. It is actually scaring the old power structure. It is comical at times.

[blue14u]

44. I can imagine....ha

I have pretty much chased all the rethugs away on my FB. It has

become so easy to smack them down with facts!
Their hypocrisy is at times so entertaining. . I lmao when they have nothing left but to call me ugly hateful names.. I win at that moment..

This is a really great thread. Lots of information across the Nation!
I will stay tuned..

[davidn3600]

38. What turnout numbers are these based on?

If it's based on 2012 numbers, it's garbage.

President's party has low turnout in the mid-terms almost always in American politics.

[Mister Ed]

45. Aye, there's the rub

The post mentions that the calculations are based on "the results in the last Presidential election". For these seats to flip, something will have to happen to reverse the historic trend you describe.

[hfojvt]

46. true, the comparable election would be 2010

but it is hard to compare that, because the districts changed, in many cases, between 2010 and 2012.

I am not sure that President's party and midterms is a hard and fast rule.

Democrats picked up 4 seats and Republicans lost 3 in 1998, the middle of Clinton's 2nd term.

On the other hand, Democrats lost 8 seats and Republicans gained 9 in 2002, the middle of Bush's first term.

The numbers are different as well, since a Congressional election does not necessarily follow a Presidential one, but at least in theory, these are districts where we should either have an advantage or a shot.

[iamthebandfanman]

47. Thanks! (And Remember.. You Can Use ACTBLUE To Donate To Them!)

https://secure.actblue.com/directory


Great place to find candidates you might like to contribute too!

Actblue gives you the option to donate to them, for their service, a portion of your donation to a candidate if you so wish to do so.. otherwise they take nothing and every penny goes to the candidate.


It also makes me SUPER SAD to see some of these races (especially down in the D area) are letting republicans run unopposed!

I know it takes a lot of guts and strength to run for office these days... but surely there are folks out there with more bravery than I have!

(And also let me throw in a small plug for a progressive looking candidate running in Kentuckys 2nd district against Brett Guthrie.. His name is Ron Leach.. his website is here : http://www.ronleach4ky.com/ The district had voted democratic from late 1800s until 1994 , so I think its possible. )

[hfojvt]

48. right now in Kansas

we have an incumbent Senator running unopposed.

Of course, we are not gonna be able to beat him anyway.

But some 300,000 voters would like to vote for somebody else.

Somebody ought to give them that opportunity.

[tabbycat31]

54. More races will have Democrats running

Please note that in most states, the filing deadline has not passed.

[hrmjustin]

49. I live in NY 11 and we will give Grimm a race this time.

[hfojvt]

50. Are you sure?

He may break you in half, like a little boy.

I understand he's gonna do a lot of work going door to door and telling voters "If you ever vote against me again, I will throw you off this balcony."

[hrmjustin]

52. The reporter is related to a crime boss. I doubt he will do that again.

[Cali_Democrat]

51. GOTV 2014!

[Squinch]

53. Great information. Thanks!

[1StrongBlackMan]

55. Posted to for a later look.

[Warren DeMontague]

56. Kick

[flamingdem]

57. bump