Chicago PD Believes It Can See The Future, Starts Warning Citizens About Crimes They Might Commit

[n2doc]

by Karl Bode

We've talked a lot over the years about the attempts to get out "ahead of crime" by using computer programs and algorithms to try and predict who might commit a crime. Predictive computing can then either target specific areas or specific people that might be in need of some extra law enforcement attention. Except as we've noted repeatedly, these programs are only as valuable as the data they use. Garbage in, garbage out, but in this case you've got a human being on the other end of the equation whose life can be dramatically impacted by law enforcement holding what they believe is "proof" that you'll soon be up to no good.

With that in mind there's growing concerns about efforts in Chicago to use predictive analytical systems to generate a "heat list" -- or a list of 400 or so individuals most likely to be involved in violent crime. The Chicago efforts are based on a Yale sociologist's studies and use an algorithm created by an engineer at the Illinois Institute of Technology. People who find themselves on the list get personal visits from law enforcement warning them that they better be nice. The result is a collision between law enforcement that believes in the righteousness of these efforts and those who worry that they could, as an EFF rep states, create "an environment where police can show up at anyone's door at any time for any reason."

Law enforcement and the code creators, as you'd expect, argue that it's only the bad guys that need to worry about a system like this:

"A press liaison for the NIJ explains in an email: "These are persons who the model has determined are those most likely to be involved in a shooting or homicide, with probabilities that are hundreds of times that of an ordinary citizen." Commander Steven Caluris, who also works on the CPD's predictive policing program, put it a different way. "If you end up on that list, there's a reason you're there."

Unless law enforcement makes a mistake, your data is wrong (which it often will be), or we decide to expand the program significantly, right? Another concern bubbling up in Chicago is that the programs are effectively using racial profiling to target already-troubled areas where crime naturally would be greater due to poverty, without anybody bothering to perform a deeper analysis of why those areas might be having problems

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http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20140220/09312226296/minority-report-chicagos-new-police-computer-predicts-crimes.shtml

[JustAnotherGen]

1. Sci Fi Movie

Creepily brought into reality. Yikes!

[Brigid]

2. Dear CPD:

"Minority Report" was not documentary.

Love,
Brigid

[ChairmanAgnostic]

27. but if they target minorities . . . ?

Can't imagine Tom filming here in the winter.

[myrna minx]

3. Gee - Who'd imagine that these "pre-crime" visits would fall along racial and poverty lines.

This seems like just another way of disenfranchising people through official "pre-crime" visits as well. This is an ugly precedent.

[L0oniX]

5. How about some pre-crime analysis for the Chicago PD?

Will they be beating up some innocent people? I'm sure they will.

[Downwinder]

6. Being a member of the PD is a risk factor.

[L0oniX]

7. ...and so is being innocent while being beat up by the PD.

[Downwinder]

11. Let them do their predictive testing within the ranks.

What are pennies made of?

[Hassin Bin Sober]

18. Yeah. How 'bout it.

This, from the police department who fights tooth and nail to keep video recording away from ANYTHING they do.

They fight to keep cameras out of interrogations and out of their their cars. They will arrest you if you film them on duty - or beat the fuck out of you. Or both.


But pre-crime profiling of minorities? All for it.

[L0oniX]

4. Minority Report ...it's a cookbook uhm er ...a movie

[jsr]

8. The CPD needs to get ahead of the curve and start doing preemptive convictions

Quit dilly-dallying.

[HereSince1628]

9. Welcome to the matrix, where prior restraint puts the social in security.

[GeorgeGist]

10. As we all know programmers ...

make errors.

Illinois Institute of Technology; many 5 star Google reviews from students who sound illiterate.

[Kelvin Mace]

12. "If you end up on that list, there's a reason you're there."

Logic is not your strong suit, is it old man?

[pipi_k]

23. I know, right?

The "reason" might not be valid, but hey...

[Kelvin Mace]

26. This is right up there with

"You wouldn't have been arrested unless you had done something wrong."

[JJChambers]

13. Soo...

The cops are simply going and warning the most extreme violent criminals that they're aware of them in an attempt to reduce the violence, and this is somehow a bad thing? It's minimally intrusive and may save a few lives. It bothers me how often self-proclaimed progressives seem to value the rights of violent criminals to be free from government intrusions over the rights of innocent victims to live without being victimized.

[RedCappedBandit]

14. You're making criminals out of people who have yet to commit any crime.

This will only hinder relations between police and the communities they are ostensibly empowered to serve.

[sibelian]

15. Hnk!

How could it possibly go wrong?

[pipi_k]

24. Even if it's the most dangerous

and violent criminals, who really believes that a visit from the police is going to make those guys sit up and say, "Hey...they're gonna be watching me...I'd better mind my p's and q's from now on!!!"

C'mon now...I've seen enough episodes of "Cops" to know that too many crime-committers don't even care if they're being filmed in the act. They'll swear up and down they didn't do anything...

[Ecumenist]

29. Well, I wonder how you'd feel if a cop showed up at your door telling you that you that they

were there to warn you of a possible crime YOU OR YOUR CHILD "MIGHT" commit...WHAT?? WHAT'S THAT YOU SAY? Upset that they showed up at your door for ABOSLUTELY NO OTHER REASON BUT THE COLOR OF YOUR SKIN OR YOUR ECONOMIC STATUS? But, but, but, "it's minimally intrusive"...they're not going to any of your friends who live in more affluent neighbourhoods or any people who are a skin colour different than yours....After all, they're protecting those innocent folks against the crimes you might commit against them...

Your DUMBASS comment is stupid on so many levels, it actually burns

[Vashta Nerada]

30. So, arresting people BEFORE they commit a crime is just?

I believe in the innocent until proven guilty model, not the "you may be guilty of a crime in the future so we're arresting you now" model.

[JJChambers]

31. Did you read the article?

No where does it suggest anyone will be arrested prior to committing a crime. Why exaggerate?

[Vashta Nerada]

32. It's your argument, not mine.

The progressive model is "innocent until proven guilty".

FYI.

[brett_jv]

37. Yeah? Well, just watch how long it takes before THIS exchange becomes commonplace ...

Defense Attorney Mr. Smith: Your Honor, we move that this evidence be excluded from Trial on the grounds that it was illegally obtained from the Defendant's residence without a warrant.

Prosecutor Mr. Jones: Well, yes, your Honor, that's true. However, the Defendant was On The List!

Judge Forlife: Oh, the Defendant was On The List? In that case, Mr. Smith, your Motion, and all others to this effect, are denied. The Defendant was On The List, so ...

Look JJ, just as was the case earlier in the week with the Supreme Court decision eroding our Rights that you loved so, the POINT is not that anybody here is a fan of 'criminals'. The point is that these sorts of decisions and 'systems' appear to be part of a systematic effort to condition people to the idea that our 'Constitutional Rights' are not worth the paper they're printed on, and that all good Germa ... I mean Americans, should willingly concede them in the 'interest' of 'security' ... that is, the "State-Determined" definition thereof.

It's time to open your friggin EYES, dude(tte). You are talking like the proverbial Frog in the pot of warm water.

[A Simple Game]

33. I don't know about what a "self-proclaimed progressive" values, but I can tell you

what a "self-proclaimed born liberal and will die liberal" values.

I know that when rights are given out, they are given out by a blind person, otherwise they aren't rights they are privileges. When I say someone should have a right I don't care what color they are, I don't care what ethnicity they are, I don't care what religion they are, nor do I care what sex or sexual orientation they are, etc. etc.

I don't assume someone is an "extreme violent criminal" based on their income, where they live, skin color, or prior record. I do know if someone is a "violent criminal" then they are either in jail or if confronted by the police should be arrested not warned, otherwise they have paid their debt to society.

Nor would I put the rights of so called "innocent victims" over the rights of actual victims, or as known by JJChambers, "extreme violent criminals."

As for "The cops are simply going and warning the most extreme violent criminals that they're aware of them in an attempt to reduce the violence", most would assume if they are the "most extreme violent criminals" that they have a record and have been at least detained more than once by the police; most would assume they already know the cops are aware of them.

So it boils down to if they are actual criminals, why bother, if they aren't, then it is projection and harassment plain and simple. Another waste of money by our premier Democratic Mayor.

[Exultant Democracy]

16. No question that these 400 at risk individuals deserve some outreach, but not cops

I swear to god it would probably save lives time and money if they just showed up and said surprise you won a free scholarships to learn whatever you want and while you improve yourself we take care of your bills.

Sad thing is that there are programs all over the US that actually do this but they haven't been funded since the last time congress actually passed a budget.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. How about pre-crime visits to banksters & Koch-ites likely to commit white collar crime?

How come that's not on the list?

[zipplewrath]

19. Root cause

Another concern bubbling up in Chicago is that the programs are effectively using racial profiling to target already-troubled areas where crime naturally would be greater due to poverty, without anybody bothering to perform a deeper analysis of why those areas might be having problems

(emphasis added)

This is the core problem. In many manufacturing settings, the goal is to get to "root cause". Identify why problems occur and correct the cause, don't just punish the person, or the workshift that was involved in the error. This approach of the police is far more about treating the symptoms, than "curing the disease".

[loudsue]

20. Holy shit! We are going to revisit the McCarthy era? This is what happens when the loonies win.

Someone has to do something about the insanity this society is falling into.

[fleabiscuit]

21. For the person(s) making the lists-

I do not know "loudsue."

[Javaman]

22. just a fancy way of explaining away racial profiling.

more justification of their racism.

[The CCC]

25. Chicago PD Believes It Can See The Future, Starts Warning Citizens About Crimes They Might Commit

Welcome to the new STASI same as the old STASI.

[zeemike]

28. And thought crime is next.

Where they determine you have criminal probability by what you say in your private communications.
Better start to love Big Brother right now.

[brett_jv]

34. This is just great, I can't wait til they get this tied in with the NSA databases ...

Won't it be awesome when they integrate this w/the NSA's surveillance of people online activities, their Facebook message, their private emails, and their postings on Liberal message boards?

I can just see it now ... a pounding on the door from a fully military-outfitted SWAT team, their Commandant shouting through the door how 'The Algorithm' has determined that various DU'ers might be planning on causing "disturbances" at the next G8 Summit, or "inhibiting Free Trade" by picketing during the laying of the final section of the Keystone XL, and that the 'residents of this address' are believed to be 'linked' to 'The DU'? And that, hence, said residents had better 'be nice', otherwise very bad things will be happening to them.

That's gonna be some good times, right there.

And get THIS ... as a super-ultra-good bonus, in the meantime, we might just get ourselves some 'extra security' to protect us from some REAL badguys, so ... talk about gravy!

[joshcryer]

35. The UK has perfected this sort of surveillance.

It's only a matter of time before it comes to the bigger cities here. Stop and frisk is just the beginning.

[Egalitarian Thug]

36. How many rich Chicagoans did that algorithm spit out? Are they saying rich people

don't commit crimes? Not in Chicago, they don't.