Crimea secession likely: Ukraine expert

[FarCenter]

Deutsche Welle: The upper house of the Russian parliament, the Federation Council, has approved military intervention on the Crimean peninsula. Why is the conflict there coming to a head right now?

Andreas Umland: Crimea is surely the part of Ukraine that is most accessible for Russia. There is a Russian majority on the Crimean peninsula: Almost 60 percent of the population of Crimea is ethnic Russian. Ukraine wants to leave the Russian orbit, so the Kremlin wants to compensate this failure by including the Crimean peninsula in its list of protectorates.

So Russia wants to enlarge its area of influence again?

Two years ago, Vladimir Putin introduced the idea of a so-called Eurasian Union. The Ukraine was supposed to be part of this geopolitical project, which is supposed to constitute a kind of Russian version of the European Union. But with the recent events in Kyiv, it has turned out that Ukraine won't participate in Putin's project.

Supposedly, there is a passage in the Russian constitution that says that fellow countrymen have to be supported. Is this passage used as a rationale?

It's the justification for this entire operation: the ethnic Russians on the Crimean peninsula are allegedly in danger. That is put forward, even though Crimea already holds a special status in the Ukrainian state. It's the only autonomous republic in Ukraine. Russians in Crimea can fully take advantage of their rights. Now, the specter of an ultra-nationalist and even fascist takeover by Kyiv is being painted on the wall by Moscow giving Russia an excuse to move in to protect the ethnic Russians.

http://www.dw.de/crimea-secession-likely-ukraine-expert/a-17467309

[polly7]

1. Carnival in Crimea

by Pepe Escobar / February 28th, 2014

Time waits for no one, but apparently will wait for Crimea. The speaker of the Crimean parliament, Vladimir Konstantinov, has confirmed there will be a referendum on greater autonomy from Ukraine on May 25.

Until then, Crimea will be as hot and steamy as carnival in Rio because Crimea is all about Sevastopol, the port of call for the Russian Black Sea fleet.

If the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a bull, this is the red flag to end all red flags. Even if you’re deep in alcohol nirvana dancin’ your troubles away at carnival in Rio — or New Orleans, or Venice, or Trinidad and Tobago — your brain will have registered that NATO’s ultimate wet dream is to command a Western puppet Ukrainian government to kick the Russian navy out of its base in Sevastopol. The negotiated lease applies until 2042. Threats and rumors of reneging it have already emerged.

The absolute majority of the Crimean peninsula is populated by Russian speakers. Very few Ukrainians live there. In 1954, it took only 15 minutes for Ukrainian Nikita Krushchev — he of the banging shoe at the UN floor — to give Crimea as a free gift to Ukraine (then part of the USSR). In Russia, Crimea is perceived as Russian. Nothing will change that fact.


Full article: http://dissidentvoice.org/2014/02/carnival-in-crimea/#more-53152

[Adrahil]

2. So I wonder how the anti-Russian minority will be treated? NT

[reformist2]

3. Easy win for Russia and Putin, thanks to the half-baked US/EU plan to destabilize the Ukraine.

I'm embarrassed for Obama.

[moondust]

4. Russia fears NATO expansion.

Some may remember Russia objecting in 2007 to Bush's missile defense plan on the Russian border in Poland and Eastern Europe.

RT:

It is important to see the scheme in its wider context, as a part of an aggressive neocon-inspired campaign to surround and threaten Russia. The missile defense shield is part of that strategy- so is the ongoing attempt to engineer regime change in Ukraine, and bring to power a more pro-western government in that country.

http://rt.com/op-edge/anti-missile-system-defense-494/