No, the Florida special election is not a referendum on Obamacare

[ProSense]

No, the Florida special election is not a referendum on Obamacare

by Joan McCarter

Republicans are madly spinning the narrow Republican victory by David Jolly over Democrat Alex Sink in last night's special election in Florida's 13th Congressional District as a referendum on Obamacare. Now that they've won. Before the ballots were counted, of course, the special election wasn't going to be predictive. Really:

NRSC's Walden Tues 10am.: "Special elections aren't too predictive." 8pm: FL13 "a loud warning" for "Democrats running coast to coast."
— @Milbank

Reality check: 48.4 percent of the vote in your favor in an extremely low-turnout election is not a referendum. It's a one-off in which the party with the bigger base is likely to prevail, which is what happened with this seat. Because Republicans didn't win this seat, they held it, barely. A 48.4 margin is a full 15 points less than the late Bill Young held this seat by in 2010, and almost 10 points less than he held it by in 2012. Still, Republicans turned out, Democrats didn't.

That slim 48.4 hold was gained by spending a boatload: $2.2 million from the National Republican Congressional Committee; $1.2 million from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce; $470,000 from the American Action Network; $470,000 from Karl Rove's American Crossroads. That's along with the uninspiring $1.3 million Republican David Jolly was able to raise himself. All in all, Republican groups sunk about $5 million into this race, Democratic groups $3.7 million.

None of which stopped the aforementioned Walden from claiming that Sink was "ultimately brought down because of her unwavering support for Obamacare." For the 89,099 people who ended up voting for Jolly, yeah, maybe. For the nation? Hardly.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/03/12/1284092/-No-the-Florida-special-election-is-not-a-referendum-on-Obamacare

Obama ran on Obamacare and kicked Romney's ass, even in Florida.

[hollysmom]

1. it should be looked at as a referendum on money. n/t

[BlueCaliDem]

2. It should be looked at as a referendum on Citizens United.

Our democracy is dying, being bought out by oligarchs and plutocrats, thanks to the disastrous ruling by SCOTUS, Inc., in the Citizens United case. Our Founding Fathers must be roiling in their graves.

[Wellstone ruled]

3. Seems to me

this district was in Rethug hands for some thirty years. Appears Sicks campaign could have done better with their get out to vote. Have said this before,you want to capture tough seat,it has to be get out to vote.

[Orrex]

4. Tell that to Cokie Roberts.

And tell her fast, please.

I can already hear her salivating at the chance to deride the ACA during her weekly anti-Obama screed on NPR next Monday.