Putin conquered Crimea and lost Ukraine.

[DetlefK]

NATO has been in talks with Ukraine for a long time, but so far the public has been split on the issue.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Ukraine
Guess they are still split?

Ukraine will sign an association agreement with the EU in March 2014. That's the first step to joining the EU.
https://www.kyivpost.com/content/politics/yatseniuk-ukraine-to-sign-deal-with-eu-within-weeks-338707.html

Russia wanted to bring back the Soviet Union as an EU-style free-trade-zone.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customs_Union_of_Belarus,_Kazakhstan,_and_Russia
Scrap that. The only remaining candidates are Georgia, Azerbaijan and the nations south-east of Kazakhstan. Georgia is still pissed that Russia invaded them in 2008 and China might try to curb Russia from creeping closer to them.

In fact, China is quietly taking over the far eastern corner of Russia, officially by investing 3 times as much as Moscow, and unofficially with about 1 million illegal immigrants per year.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=82969
http://thediplomat.com/2011/06/china-looms-over-russia-far-east/
What will happen when China decides, half a century from now, that those 50 million russian Chinese need protection from Russia?



Putin wanted to bring back the glorious Russia of the old Soviet Union days. He brought back the wall, but significantly closer to the East.

He might try to conquer the rest of Ukraine, but in that case the West will be more than eager to pump weapons and supplies into an ukrainian guerrilla-war. Mix some RPGs, explosives and radios in a bowl, stir them up gently, season with war-atrocities executed by the notoriously brutal russian army and broadcasted everywhere in the age of the Internet, and you get a second Afghanistan for Russia.

Just wait for Belarus. Once that tyrannic regime breaks down, some decades from now, it will be the same situation as Ukraine today: The new government wanting to go West, Russia supporting the old regime.

[geek tragedy]

1. Yep. This is why people who think Putin is some grand chessmaster are missing the plot.

Ukraine can look at the Baltic Republics. They have large ethnic Russian populations in their border provinces.

But, they have little actual concern regarding a Russian invasion--because they belong to NATO.

So, the case for joining NATO is looking a lot stronger.

Also note that if Crimea leaves, that will be that many fewer pro-Russia votes in the Ukrainian elections in May. Which will tilt the field in favor of the pro-Western candidate.

And Putin pissed that away in order to annex military bases he already had a right to use.

Derp.

[MinneapolisMatt]

2. Good analysis.