A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet

[IDemo]

There has been a lot of speculation about Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Terrorism, hijacking, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN; it’s almost disturbing. I tend to look for a simpler explanation, and I find it with the 13,000-foot runway at Pulau Langkawi.

We know the story of MH370: A loaded Boeing 777 departs at midnight from Kuala Lampur, headed to Beijing. A hot night. A heavy aircraft. About an hour out, across the gulf toward Vietnam, the plane goes dark, meaning the transponder and secondary radar tracking go off. Two days later we hear reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar, meaning the plane is tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the Strait of Malacca.
The loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and searched for airports in proximity to the track toward the southwest.

The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah1 was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

[warrior1]

1. 'cept (from comment section)

nolimits3333 oweniverson • 23 minutes ago

The left turn was programmed before the co-pilot signed off.
It was hijacked.

[undeterred]

49. How do they know that?

[Lex]

53. It's transmitted back to ACARS.

The course of the flight was changed by entering navigational instructions into the Flight Management System (FMS), the cockpit computer that directs the plane along a flight plan chosen by pilots.

Information from the FMS is among the data transmitted by the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) which sends information back to the airline’s maintenance base.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/missing-jets-u-turn-programmed-signoff-sources-say-n56151

[undeterred]

56. Knowing when it was done

does not tell you who did it or why they did it.

Since the only people on the plane that presumably had the knowledge to do it were the pilot, the first officer, and possibly a flight engineer - we can assume it was one of those people.

We don't know what the motivation was. Were they able to communicate or not?

[Lex]

2. A fire would affect ALL tracking devices and the black box

in this scenario?

[WinkyDink]

5. Fire doesn't affect the "black box."

[Lex]

7. Ok, so that kills this theory

or so it seems because the black box sends ping signals for 30 days (or so I heard on tv, fwiw).

[jeff47]

11. Hearing the ping requires getting close to where the box ended up

How close you have to get depends on how deep the water is. According to the coverage, in 14,000 ft of water, the boat would have to be nearly overhead. And the Southern Indian ocean is pretty deep.

And the "ping" is moot if the plane crashed on land.

[Lex]

16. The black box doesn't ping on land?

[jeff47]

17. No. It's sonar.

The pinger is used to locate the crash site under water.

On land, you locate the crash site, then you look for the bright orange box. Sound has too short a range in air to be useful for locating the crash site. If you are close enough to hear the "ping", you're close enough to see the crash. (Except that the ping is ultrasonic, so you can't hear it anyway.)

[Lex]

25. Thanks.

One pilot on tv mentioned that it pings for about 30 days.

[jeff47]

28. Yes, if it drops into the water, it will ping for 30 days. (nt)

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

51. It could, in the sense that fire could interrupt the electrical source

that powers the recorder. On most airplanes the CVR and the FDR operate off of the airplane's main generators and not off its emergency power source (batteries). So even if the black boxes don't burn up they might not be recording anything, as in the Swissair 111 accident.

[MNBrewer]

3. so then where is it?

Didn't make it? Made it? Over shot it?

[jeff47]

20. It says in the article.

Pilots were overcome by smoke, and the plane continued on auto-pilot.

It crashed when it ran out of fuel, or when the fire destroyed the ability to control the plane.

[muriel_volestrangler]

29. How would the plane get to one of the 'arcs' the satellite signal it went to?

Neither are on a continuation of the course from loss of radio contact to the last known radar contact.

[jeff47]

35. They could have let the autopilot keep flying the plane.

If they were having trouble dealing with the flying and the controls, I could see them using the autopilot to fly the plane so they don't have to.

So the autopilot gets pointed some way, and the pilots pass out from the smoke. The autopilot just keeps flying.

Why point it away from the airport? Perhaps they were lining up for the runway. Or they screwed up an entry due to the fact that they were passing out. We don't really have all the information necessary to fill in the entire story.

[muriel_volestrangler]

45. So you think they'd lined up for a runway, without making any contact with the airport

or an attempt to warn them a plane on fire was about to attempt to land (eg flying close by first)? And after having that close control of the plane, many minutes after the emergency started, they were suddenly overcome, but the plane was on a course to remain in the air for another 6 hours, with no-one noticing it, despite this airport being in the Malacca Strait, and the direct routes to the apparent endpoint being over land?

This is a far more improbable scenario than the plane being deliberately flown to where it ended up.

[jeff47]

54. If they've yanked the power to the on-fire electronics, how do they use the radio?

No power to the radio means no ability to contact the tower. And flying close by is almost as dangerous as just landing. So just land.

but the plane was on a course to remain in the air for another 6 hours, with no-one noticing it

It was pointed at the essentially empty southern Indian ocean. Who's going to notice?

despite this airport being in the Malacca Strait, and the direct routes to the apparent endpoint being over land

The airport is across land, but the approach is from the water.

This is a far more improbable scenario than the plane being deliberately flown to where it ended up.

Which is?

If the goal was to crash it in a terrorist attack or suicide, why fly for 7 hours first? To empty parts of the world? Just crash it in the many close-by high-population areas.

If the goal was to steal it, why? The level of effort required is much higher and about as expensive as just buying a plane from Boeing.

[muriel_volestrangler]

73. What route from the airport gets you to one of the arcs?

If the plane carried on another 6 hours, it's a route that involves travelling level, so it's not a final approach. But the direction from where the plane diverted from its proper course to that airport is west-south-west , and those arcs are north to north-west (over Thailand, China etc., or south (over Indonesia), from the Malacca Strait (that's what I meant about "direct routes to the apparent endpoint being over land"; from the Malacca Strait, to get to the southern Indian ocean, you have to fly over Sumatra).



The Malaysian military radar said it left the Malacca Strait heading north-west towards the Andamans. That heading might just get it to the far north western end of the northern arc, but it would have to fly over India, Pakistan and Afghanistan to do that. It's not 'startingly simple' to think it would go undetected over heavily defended territory like that.

'No power to the radio' is also a dubious assumption. We know, for instance, that the link to the satellite was still working. In this scenario, they have the power to the systems to set the course for the plane such that it can go towards that airport, and then carry on for another 6 hours. If they thought they had no control of the plane, but thought they had no communications at all, that would be a time to start trying to use cell phones when in range of land.

I don't know what did happen; what I'm saying is that the 'startlingly simple' theory ignores a lot of what we know. It seems to be based on "we know it flew to the Malacca Strait", but ignores all we know happened after that.

[Zorro]

50. I think the 'arcs' are TDOA isochrones

[WinkyDink]

4. Except...NOT.

[closeupready]

18. +1.

[blackspade]

6. I was just about to post this!

I haven't heard a better explanation than this.

[SidDithers]

8. Plausible...

thanks for posting.

Sid

[ellisonz]

9. "Fire in an aircraft demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible."

Except they didn't do that. For this theory to be plausible, we have to believe that a fire disabled the electrical system in an absolutely perfect fashion that allowed the plane to keep flying for seven hours. Furthermore, we have to believe that somehow the pilots were unable to control the aircraft and put it on the ground when given the chance.

[jeff47]

19. They could have pulled the breakers on parts of the electrical system

in an attempt to stop the fire from getting worse.

And assuming the author is correct, smoke could have disabled the pilots before the plane reached the airstrip. Leaving the plane on auto-pilot.

The main problem with this particular story is the plane made a couple more turns after the initial turn. Difficult to explain why they'd do that.

[ellisonz]

26. Wouldn't they have communicated mayday before doing so?

There's no indication that plane was in distress or out of control. If the smoke became so severe in the cockpit that it disabled the pilots, wouldn't it likely have crashed? And yes, the additional turns and flight time continue to cast doubt on a mechanical issue. If I'm a pilot and there's a fire onboard, I'm communicating and trying to get the plane on the ground safely ASAP.

[jeff47]

27. Not if they pulled the breakers for the radio.

If they're having an electrical fire, they could yank the circuit that powers the radio. As a result, no communicating mayday.

If the smoke became so severe in the cockpit that it disabled the pilots, wouldn't it likely have crashed?

Not if the plane was on autopilot.

If I'm a pilot and there's a fire onboard, I'm communicating and trying to get the plane on the ground safely ASAP.

Which is what this story is talking about - supposedly it's going to a nearby airport. Communication not working because the breaker was pulled to try to fight the fire.

[ellisonz]

33. I find this really hard to believe.

Why would they be on autopilot at that point and not in manual control?

I think given the altitude data that we have it doesn't make sense because it would seem to indicate no attempt at emergency landing when given the opportunity. This would be a spectacular, unprecedented failure of engineering for a modern jetliner.

[jeff47]

37. Because if they are starting to become overwhelmed by smoke

it is safer to have the autopilot do the flying for as long as possible.

I think given the altitude data that we have it doesn't make sense because it would seem to indicate no attempt at emergency landing when given the opportunity

What opportunity?

The OP is talking about one of the nearest airports that can handle the 777.

[ellisonz]

41. If they were trying to go to the airport why didn't they get there...

...if they had no control of the plane, why the additional turns after passing the peninsula?

Theory makes no sense given the available facts IMHO

[jeff47]

42. Under this theory, they were trying to get there

but were overwhelmed by smoke before they got there. Theoretically, the turns were their attempt to line up that was hampered by the smoke.

The problem is all the other theories that have been provided don't line up with the available facts either. We need more data, but it's not likely we will be getting it until they find the plane.

[countryjake]

46. Many aviation specialists have said communication is last on the list...

if they are attempting to deal with an emergency in-flight. Handling the problem is the priority.

[greatlaurel]

10. Thanks for posting

I heard Mary Shiavo last week stating that it was either a fire or decompression and that the pilots were fighting to save the plane. This article makes a lot of sense. Such a tragedy for all the families.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

22. Wolf Blitzer HATES that idea though as he loves to terrorize.

[cbdo2007]

13. Yep, Indian Ocean.....ever since the news they turned around, this has been the

most likely final destination in my mind. That's a lot of water to search!

[BlueStreak]

14. It is shockingly simple, I'll give you that.

Do you care to explain why neither the plane nor any of its occupants has been heard from? It is simple as long as you don't ask any of the obvious questions. And that is true of all the theories. All of them require huge leaps of logic somewhere in the theory.

[IDemo]

15. Because, according to this theory, the plane ran out of fuel and crashed

What I think happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that route–looking elsewhere is pointless.

Not sure where the leap of logic is here..

[Recursion]

34. Why would the autopilot take it to 45,000 feet? (nt)

[jeff47]

38. According to the article, the pilots manually flew the plane up there

trying to put out the fire. When that caused the plane to stall, they put it on autopilot to fly the plane to the airport.

[Recursion]

57. Doesn't fit with the communications loss sequence

Someone interleaved non-distress contact with control between the various comm shutdowns.

[jeff47]

60. Did you bother reading the article before commenting?

This is also covered in the article. Try reading. It's fun!

[Recursion]

63. I read this when it was still on Google+

He doesn't even offer an argument as to why the pilot would program the turn while he still had comms and not say anything. That is, he would have a good argument if the order of what happened was reversed.

[jeff47]

65. The turn happened after all of the comms went out.

One comm system went down. Radio still worked. The turn happened after last radio contact. Pilots may have not been aware there was a problem until after that last radio call.

Which is what he said in the article.

[Recursion]

66. The turn was programmed in before comms went out

The Malaysian and US governments have both said so in the past 2 days.

[BlueStreak]

36. The leap of logic is assuming an aircraft on fire can make it another 6 hours

This theory also says that the plane is on fire and the pilots calmly reprogrammed the flight control system to head for Palau Langkawi and then proceeded with a nice leisurely turn under computer control and didn't bother to squawk "Mayday" on the radio. I'm not a pilot, but I'm thinking that is the aircraft is on fire, I'm grabbing the controls myself and trying to fly the damn thing.

Besides, didn't the flight control system send a message that identified the new coordinates? Palau Langkawi wasn't in that program, was it?

[jeff47]

39. If you're in the middle of an electrical fire, you're disconnecting as much as possible.

Including the circuit that powers the radio - heck, it could be the radio that actually caught fire.

I'm not a pilot, but I'm thinking that is the aircraft is on fire, I'm grabbing the controls myself and trying to fly the damn thing.

And the theory in the article is just that -the pilots flew it to 45,000 feet in an attempt to put out the fire. Then they stalled, and only recovered the plane at 29,500.

That's when they turned on the autopilot, presumably in order to not have to fly the plane in the middle of all that smoke. Theoretically, the pilots could rotate who's in the cockpit in order to let each one breathe normally for a while.

[BlueStreak]

44. A question for pilots or flight engineers out there

What would the flight control system do if the pilot programmed Palau Langkawi and then never did anything else (the theory being that before they got to Palau Langkawi the pilots were either unconscious or dead)?

Again, I think this whole theory is negated by the report that the flight control system sent messages that detailed the new program and it didn't include Palau Langkawi as a way point as far as I know.

[jeff47]

55. Not a pilot, but the autopilot doesn't work that way

You set an altitude and a heading. You don't set "Palau Langkawi". If the pilots pass out, the plane keeps on that heading at that altitude.

[Recursion]

58. You do set a named waypoint

The system calculates the heading from that.

[jeff47]

62. No, you _can_ set a named waypoint.

If you haven't programmed the waypoint in, which you probably did not do for the approach to an airport not on your flight plan, then you're going to set heading and altitude.

Also, it's not like the autopilot stops flying the plane when you reach that waypoint.

[BlueStreak]

69. What does the flight control system do when you pass the last waypoint you have programmed?

[jeff47]

72. According to

this PDF, it maintains the last heading and altitude.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

21. Pulling all of the buses to stop an electrical fire fits.

[Lex]

23. Now they are saying the turn was programmed in so not manual.

That sounds more planned than under duress.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

52. It's happened before.

http://www.ntsb.gov/aviationquery/brief.aspx?ev_id=20001208X07385&key=1

[pscot]

24. This makes a lot more sense

than anything I have seen on TV. Khazakstan? Really?

[malaise]

30. Makes the most sense

because what stuck for me was the man on the oil rig who saw what looked like an aircraft explode high above.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

31. CNN is just mentioned the airport in your OP. Also now reporting a possible sighting in

Malé islands.

[Recursion]

32. And the ascent to 45K feet?

That's hard to square with this idea.

[jeff47]

40. Depressurize the plane and fly as high as possible to fight the fire.

Stalling at 45,000 and recovering at 29,500 could explain why they didn't keep doing it.

[Recursion]

59. Still doesn't explain the non-distress communication in the middle of the comms systems failing

By Occam's standard, this multiplies too many entities for me.

[jeff47]

61. Also covered in the article. You should try reading it.

Also, the climb to 45,000 was after the communications were shut off.

[Recursion]

64. Again, I did. The turn was programmed BEFORE comms were lost

Before. Not after, before.

[jeff47]

67. Nope. The turn happened after the last radio contact. (nt)

[Lex]

70. But the turn was programmed before. nt

[Lex]

68. How long before--do we know yet?

[Recursion]

71. "At least 12 minutes before". But, radar contacts over Malacca (if they were real) show a zig-zag

If those primaries were the jet, it used normal flight paths after the turn, not a dead heading.

EDIT: apparently the programming change happened "at least 12 minutes before" the radio signoff:

http://www.kplctv.com/story/25012420/malaysia-latest-route-of-flight-370-changed-before-last-communication

[liberalla]

43. It may not be an accurate altitude reading

from the article:

"As for the reports of altitude fluctuations, given that this was not transponder-generated data but primary radar at maybe 200 miles, the azimuth readings can be affected by a lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally reliable."

Another possible angle to consider...

[FreeState]

47. Or the fact that the flight was pre-programed to turn around before the final communication

was sent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?_r=0


Also this: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014757056

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) - The final words from the missing Malaysian jetliner's cockpit gave no indication anything was wrong, even though one of the plane's communications systems had already been disabled, officials said Sunday, adding to suspicions that one or both of the pilots were involved in the disappearance.

[ecstatic]

74. Maybe the pilots were near death when he said that

Hypoxia or hypothermia, perhaps? That would require something other than a fire, of course.

[Kablooie]

48. Occam's razor makes this a likely scenario.

The direction last indicated doesn't follow the radar envelope but perhaps it made another left turn, starting to loop around to land on Pulau Langkawi but this turn wasn't detected. That could put it within the lower radar envelope.